Thread by @DrEricDing

📍Govt leaders used ‘herd immunity by natural infection’ plan to create Boris Johnson’s 🇬🇧roadmap to purposefully “allow #COVID19 to circulate in younger people”. Dangerously “counter to ethics, common sense & science” says @yaneerbaryam.🧵
By @NafeezAhmed
bylinetimes.com/2021/06/24/the…

2) “Continuing COVID-19 transmission until summer 2022 will contribute to more than 35% of overall herd immunity, according to one model commissioned by the Government. Among documents from the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) – previously unreported until now…”

3) “– one presented to the group in February summarised modelling by the University of Warwick and Imperial College London based on scenarios defined by the Cabinet Office.
The document signed off by chairs of SAGE’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling sub-group came

4) “to the conclusion that insufficient levels of vaccination in the UK would mean that “herd immunity is not reached without a large resurgence of transmission”. The document suggests that the bulk of this “large resurgence of transmission” would be concentrated in young people.

5) “The documents reveal that the specific scenarios explored by SAGE modelling were created by the UK Cabinet Office.” (Executive office of Boris Johnson) 👀

6) “It is important to note that scenarios explored by the roadmap’s modelling do not necessarily represent policy decisions. A Government spokesperson told Byline Times that any suggestion of a policy of deliberate infection is “categorically untrue” and added:

7) ““As we’ve made repeatedly clear, herd immunity was never part of our pandemic strategy.”

But this still leaves the question why an “escalation of infection” as a route to population immunity is being modelled at all.

8) “Other countries are seeking this outcome through vaccination rather than trying to harness natural infections.

bylinetimes.com/2021/06/24/the…

9) “The modelling described by the SAGE document was designed to figure out how and when a combination of vaccination and natural infection of largely unvaccinated young people would contribute to overall population immunity – or ‘herd immunity’.

10) “This in turn would provide a guide as to how early the Government could relax restrictions.” 🔥

11) “The research warned that removing restrictions too early could lead to “another wave comparable in size to January 2021, resulting in a further 62,000 to 107,000 deaths in England”.

12) “More pessimistic assumptions, such as reduced vaccine effectiveness and uptake, could lead to a still larger wave with between 102,000 and 176,000 deaths, according to the document.

13) “The SAGE document shows that the role of natural infection in producing immunity was a crucial variable for the roadmap. “These models assume that neither naturally acquired nor vaccine-induced immunity wane,” it stated. “Immunity to other coronaviruses is known to wane.”

14) “In one scenario outlined by the document, it stated: “A resurgence occurs because there are still many people in vulnerable groups who do not have protection…”

15) “neither directly (either because they have not been vaccinated, or because their vaccination has not prevented them from becoming infected then ill) nor indirectly from wider population immunity (because many younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated or infected).”

16) “The document point outs out that, as a result, herd immunity might only be achievable with a “large resurgence of transmission” primarily affecting unvaccinated children. Because a “large proportion of adults remain who are not directly protected by vaccination” and..

17) “as “many younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated or infected”, the document concludes that this could mean that overall UK population level protection is too low to achieve herd immunity by vaccination alone.

18) “Only around 79% are adults, which means population level protection is lower, at 53%…. In addition, protection against infection is likely to be lower than that against disease. As a result, herd immunity is not reached without a large resurgence of transmission.”

19) “The emphasis in bold was present in the original document 👀, indicating the significance of the connection between the goal of “herd immunity” and “a large resurgence of transmission”. ⚠️

20) “a second version of that model went to pains to incorporate immunity after infection into estimates of overall population protection. Both documents confirm that the scenarios for lifting restrictions were “set out by the Cabinet Office.” 🔥

21) “a revised version of graph on projected immunity, once again predicting a rise in the percentage of the population being “protected after infection”… implied continued COVID-19 transmission contributing to accumulating immunity during this timeframe.”

(BoJo’s plan! 🔥)

22) “the LSHTM model is most explicit in setting out a scenario in which the easing of restrictions in April leads to a rise in transmission which then declines not just due to vaccination, but also due to “accumulation of immunity in the population… through natural infection”:

23) “The easing of restrictions is expected to lead to a rise in the reproduction number which is expected to be above one. The half-term school holiday in May/June 2021 results in a temporary reduction in the reproduction number.” (**THEY KNEW SCHOOLS CAUSE TRANSMISSION!!!**)

24) “The gradual decline thereafter is due to accumulation of immunity in the population, largely through vaccination but **also through natural infection**.”

25) “SAGE member Calum Semple openly advocated possibility of deliberately infecting children: “There might (I stress might) also be long-term immunological reasons for permitting Wt SARS-CoV-2 in childhood, though there is still uncertainty about the risk of long covid.” 🔥

26) “Byline Times spoke to pandemic expert Professor @yaneerbaryam, president of the @necsi and co-founder of the @CovidActionGrp about the implications of these UK Government documents.

27) “The idea of ‘herd immunity’ by natural infection to limit the pandemic by sacrificing health and lives is counter to ethics, common sense, & science,” said @yaneerbaryam, who has advised UN, CDC, the WH National Security Council, among many other agencies.

28) “the UK Government decision to remove masking in schools, strongly objected to by scientists” still increases risk of severe disease & hospitalisations, and dangers of ‘#LongCovidKids’ which can lead to “long-term effects that are debilitating in even mild cases.” 🔥

29) “In the UK, Office for National Statistics data shows that 12.9 percent of children between 2 and 11 years old, and 14.5 percent of children between 12 and 16 years old display symptoms for at least five weeks after their first COVID-19 infection.

30) “The prevalence of Long COVID could, however, be even higher. A major peer-reviewed study of Long COVID in children published in April examined 129 children aged 6-16 years old diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and November 2020 at a single hospital in Rome 🇮🇹.

31) “More than a half of children assessed reported at least one symptom” lasting >120 days, with 43% experiencing at least one symptom over 60 days after infection. Symptoms included “fatigue, muscle and joint pain, headache, insomnia, respiratory problems and palpitations.”

32) “Meanwhile, Public Health England has repeatedly delayed the release of data on COVID-19 transmission in schools, apparently under high-level political pressure.” theguardian.com/world/2021/may…

33) It’s no wonder UK removed all masks in kids and still won’t reinstate them amid new #DeltaVariant wave.

Excellent reporting by @NafeezAhmed on the long time approach of BoJo’s UK govt to infect children. Give him a follow. bylinetimes.com/2021/06/24/the…