Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🚛🚛🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨How Britain’s Channel ports avoided feared #Brexit meltdown…how the French helped, but how the disruption was displaced to depots (and may yet arise when passenger travel restarts). Latest for @FT series. Stay with me/1
on.ft.com/3quPLpn

@FT So first the 'reasonable worst case' as set out last Sept by @michaelgove (not 'remainers' as some Brexiters might have you believe) -- 7,000 lorries in Kent, 2 days queues etc. Armageddon. But it didn't happen. Why? And what did happen? /2
ft.com/content/aa42ac…

@FT @michaelgove Talking to Govt, Industry, Hauliers, Logistics the main reasons are as follows:

- stockpiling. 230k trucks thru Dover in November, highest of the year.

- much lower trade in Jan. “A lot of smaller suppliers just backed off,” says Tim O’Malley of @NationwidePlc /2

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc - also massive govt awareness campaigns, per Alex Veitch of @LogisticsUKNews based on the a “90-10 rule” that focusing hardest on the 10,000 or so largest UK businesses who account for about 90 per cent of UK trade with the EU /3

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews - and part of the awareness success was the Kent Access Permit.

Mocked in some quarters as an 'honesty box system' but actually govt officials say it did the job of raising awareness. /4

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews - But it ensured that much lower-than-feared numbers of drivers showed up with incorrect paperwork: 8 per cent of trucks being turned away in early January, falling to 2 per cent by mid February according to govt figs. /5

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews - Covid also helped massive because (and we'll come back to his) lorries had the port to themselves. They could use all five of Dover's passport lanes...usually the only have one. /6

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews Another factor was hard-working Whitehall. Officials did get the message out and they did ensure that feedback from EU customs operators on the most common paperwork mistakes were passed back to UK operators. /7

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews And then the French!! Yes, they were v helpful -- I spoke to the govt for this piece, Dover Port and a trade group who all independently and unprompted praised the French. For their SI Brexit computer system and even-handedness in applying checks. It surprised on the upside/8

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews As Tim Reardon of @Port_of_Dover told me: “Credit has to go to the French customs for finding a way of dealing with the new stream of lorry freight. The political noise between London and Paris isn’t reflected in the way French customs officials work.” /9

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover So what DID happen...well as companies will attest, for some sectors (food and drink, other controls products) @michaelgove prediction of 80pc reduced flows was about right. But the queues didn't happen at the ports. /10

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover “Those ‘worst-case scenario predictions’ that flows could fall by 80 per cent weren’t far off for the food and drink industry — it’s just that the disruption took place at the factory level,” said Luke Hindlaugh @LHindlaugh from the Food and Drink Federation @Foodanddrinkfed /11

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover @LHindlaugh @Foodanddrinkfed So as Steve Morgan, boss of @SynergyFlavours recalls, the queues and backlogs were at the depots and factories...and as we reported y'day...they're still there for a lot of businesses, even if stuff is moving - more slowly and more expensively /12

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover @LHindlaugh @Foodanddrinkfed @SynergyFlavours So as @RHAJohnLucy says the cost of a load from the north-west to Belgium "was going out at £500 last year, but now it’s up to £1,500 for the same load" -- because EU drivers don't want to do backloads for fear of groupage snags, driver shortages etc. /13

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover @LHindlaugh @Foodanddrinkfed @SynergyFlavours @RHAJohnLucy So what about the future? Well, remember those five passport lanes at Dover? Right now freight has all five to themselves, but when leisure travel returns, they'll have to compete with 20,000 cares on a busy day. So that risks pinch points to come /14

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover @LHindlaugh @Foodanddrinkfed @SynergyFlavours @RHAJohnLucy The @Port_of_Dover is worried -- and is currently seeking a judicial review of a UK govt decision NOT to fund a £35m plan to double passport capacity and remodel traffic flows in the ports, as I revealed here /15

ft.com/content/3cc246…

@FT @michaelgove @NationwidePlc @LogisticsUKNews @Port_of_Dover @LHindlaugh @Foodanddrinkfed @SynergyFlavours @RHAJohnLucy We'll see what happens in the Summer. The @NAOorguk warned of two-hour queues in one of its scenario docs, but "much longer" in peak times. Kent resilience forum is already laying plans! ENDS