Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🥩🚚🐟🍸🏭🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨Six months on and UK businesses are still battling with Brexit, finds exclusive ⁦@The_IoD⁩ ⁦@cmi_managers⁩ surveys for ⁦@FT⁩ — red tape, labour shortages etc. With ⁦@DanielThomasLDN⁩

Stay with me/1 on.ft.com/3qxVDye

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN So the @The_IoD survey 651 members. Of those that traded with the EU, only 6 per cent said their trade with the bloc had increased after EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force. 31 per cent said it had decreased. /2

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN Not sure this necessarily that surprising, but it's a reminder that this EU-UK Trade deal that was, per @BorisJohnson creating 'no non-tariff to trade' has hit trade (as we know).

If this was any other trade deal, we'd say it was a total failure. /3

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson I only say that because when I talk to people in Europe they find it head-scratching that the UK should have done such a low-ambition, high-friction deal with the massive market on its doorstep...to give themselves freedom to do Rest of World deal with 0.2% GDP upside at best/4

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson The second thing that emerges from these surveys is that those businesses that were hit, haven't seen that much improvement over six months. As @cmi_managers survey found, those with negative impacts on turnover in Jan (26%) found same in June /5

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson The CMI surveyed 1,354 managers and per @cmi_ceo Ann Francke: “Private sector managers reported that post-Brexit trade challenges are still having a negative impact on their organisations’ turnover.” /6

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo A third area that emerged was business concerns about what happens when UK border controls start to come into force in October - remember, #Brexit is currently a one way street. When EU companies face same hassles trading with UK, there are fears that will suppliers/turnover /7

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo I suspect the govt will 'prioritise trade flows' but we're already seeing with UK businesses that a lot are setting up in EU, splitting supply chains so they don't hub/distro out of UK into Europe - like JD Sports has./8

cityam.com/jd-sports-eyes…

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo That means JD Sports (which imports trainers from Far East) will continue on its merry way, but less tax take for UK Exchequer, less jobs for UK workers...and while it's obviously worth it for companies to serve EU market of 465m...it is less obvious the other way /9

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo The UK's antidote is 'global trade', viz. new markets in Asia Pacific etc.. but the numbers just don't stack up. One company we report on today @1CheshireCheese was told by ministers to export to Canada instead of the EU...they got hit by 245% tariffs per boss @SimonJSpurrell /10

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell A fourth area is that where business IS carrying on -- and the majority does despite the hit -- it's slower, more expensive and traders are having to suck up hits to margins because they can't pass on costs when EU competitors inside single market don't have to /11

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell I've talked to a fair number of businesses that talk about this -- they're sucking the hit to protect trade, while facing rising input costs at home, both via inflation, labour shortages and global distribution challenges not related to Brexit /12

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell I'd also not underestimate the sheer stress that comes with defending your business in this way -- as @rivetandhide boss Danny Hodgson tells my colleague @DanielThomasLDN /13

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide All of this additional red tape hits SMEs hardest, and these are the companies that can afford to be most vocal, find it hardest to collectively be heard. Per 2016 estimates 9% export and another 15% are downstream from businesses that export /14

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide That is perhaps one reason why the introduction of frictions EU-UK will be felt more than some anticipate -- and are already being felt with global supply chains. Anecdotally, I have three jobs pending on my house...all three delayed, citing supply/labour shortages/15

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide Bigger companies are both more able to suck up disruption, shift and split supply chains and because of investor relations, have much less interest in talking about their difficulties in public...but they too are spending money sorting this stuff out that cd be spent elsewhere/16

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide The aggregate effect of all this is to be seen - economically and politically. The ballpark estimate was -5% GDP over 15 years, or (ONS) EU-UK exports/imports off -15% ....that may all go relatively unnoticed, it may never be attributed to #Brexit, #COVID19 will obscure much/17

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide The straw men of Brexiters -- the pub is still open, the supermarkets still have food, the sun still rises in the morning, the footy is still on etc -- are really beside the point. This is about trying to quantify self-inflicted economic drag/18

@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN @BorisJohnson @cmi_ceo @1CheshireCheese @SimonJSpurrell @rivetandhide The fact there were no massive queues at Dover doesn't mean #Brexit didn't happen -- a subject I'll be returning to later this week as part of a series of articles @FT is running analysing Brexit six months on. Stay tuned. ENDS