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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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29 Jun, 5 tweets, 4 min read
All-time record high #COVID19 cases in Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿—more than even this past winter surge. Furthermore, *hospitalizations and ICUs on the rise*. The #DeltaVariant is dominant in Scotland of course. Thread 🧵
2) Most of the surge in Scotland is among younger age groups. But it is increasing in the elderly as well, albeit more slowly. But most people over 45 are vaccinated yet cases still rising. It’s because of the #DeltaVariant
3) Scotland is slightly ahead of England in vaccinations. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 is 49% fully vaccinated. Yet it still hit a record high #COVID19 caseload. Don’t anyone dare say that is near herd immunity threshold. It’s not even close damnit, especially with a higher R0 for #DeltaVariant of 6-8.
4) hospitalizations will continue to increase because case surge is still very recent and hospitalization is a lagging indicator.
5) this kinda reminds me of the sharp curves I’ve seen in India 🇮🇳… I hope I’m wrong. Scotland does have 10x more % fully vaccinated than India did… but still, this is not an #DeltaVariant epidemic curve to ignore.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
BREAKING—A **third #COVID19 vaccine** will be offered to half of UK 🇬🇧 residents with a flu jab starting September to reduce need for restrictions this winter. All residents age 50+over will be urged to get another shot to ensure immunity does not wane. 🧵
thetimes.co.uk/article/half-o…
2) A third dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine can boost immune protection. In new trial, 3rd dose of AZ vaccine nearly seven months after first two shots—participants reported higher antibody levels after the third dose than a month after the second. #COVID19 nytimes.com/2021/06/28/wor…
3) The new data, detailed in a preprint manuscript that has not yet been peer reviewed, came from 90 study volunteers in 🇬🇧 who were among the earliest to receive shots in clinical trial last year. This past March, they were given third dose, roughly 30 weeks after their second.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
Heard an insane quote—On 4th of July: “If you're an unvaccinated individual, try to be around as many vaccinated persons as you can be”, said a scientist that I won’t name.

Ummm, what? Just like Singapore #DeltaVariant outbreak? 21 transmissions from a green (vaxxed) circle. Image
2) How about telling unvaccinated people to MASK instead? Or stay away from other people period until they are fully vaccinated? Or else it’ll only drive this…
3) Or how about tell unvaccinated people to get travel insurance ?
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
What does it say when @RoyalCaribbean asks unvaccinated guests to get travel insurance for Florida 🛳 cruises? It means they know what will likely happen. #COVID19 reut.rs/3x4Z6qv Image
2) Royal Caribbean International said on Tuesday it would require unvaccinated guests over 12 years of age traveling from Florida to show proof of insurance that covers COVID-19 related medical expenses, quarantine and evacuation.
3) The new policy comes after two unvaccinated teenagers tested positive on its Adventure of the Seas ship last week and two others were infected on Celebrity Millennium earlier this month.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
BREAKING—Nearly 2,000 #COVID19 cases in Scotland now linked to attendees of #Euro2020⚽️ events—#DeltaVariant. 2/3rds of cases had travelled to London for Scotland vs England. 90% male. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 now has **all-time record high Covid** plus ⬆️hospitalizations. 🧵 bbc.com/news/uk-scotla… Image
2) Scotland record high #COVID19 cases — here is the data. It’s now higher than even winter surge! Image
3) Most of the Scotland surge is in terms and young adults. But it’s rising in those 45-65 and elderly age groups too. Image
Read 16 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
This ⬇️ is a dangerous argument trying to justify pediatric illness & mortality via “let it infect kids” approach. “We are all going to die one day” is a complete abdication of public health and medicine ethics. Plus ignores #LongCovid & “disability adjusted life years”. #COVID19
2) Kids transmit damnit. And kids get along Covid. 1 in 12 is too high.
3) schools….
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
NEED MORE NUANCE—“Vaccines work” against the #DeltaVariant, yes—100% true. But it hides a lot of nuance—while vaccines protect YOU a lot if you get it, it will still allow virus to transmit & affect other susceptible—until hit higher vaxxed herd threshold (~85% for Delta)—Mask!🧵
2) key issue is that while you’re personally protected if 2-dose vaccinated (60% AZ & 79-88% Pfizer efficacy, 94% hospitalization), the much higher transmission (2x faster transmissibility than old) means a higher herd level needed to stop #DeltaVariant from hitting others.
3) Singapore Delta outbreak proves it—vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who were infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That is a lot! Image
Read 5 tweets

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