NEED MORE NUANCE—“Vaccines work” against the #DeltaVariant, yes—100% true. But it hides a lot of nuance—while vaccines protect YOU a lot if you get it, it will still allow virus to transmit & affect other susceptible—until hit higher vaxxed herd threshold (~85% for Delta)—Mask!🧵
2) key issue is that while you’re personally protected if 2-dose vaccinated (60% AZ & 79-88% Pfizer efficacy, 94% hospitalization), the much higher transmission (2x faster transmissibility than old) means a higher herd level needed to stop #DeltaVariant from hitting others.
3) Singapore Delta outbreak proves it—vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who were infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That is a lot!
4) this is why both WHO and Los Angeles both recommends vaccinated still mask, because they can still shed viruses with the more transmissible #DeltaVariant with higher viral load per person that can transmit in 5-10 seconds if unlucky.
5) “near 100% household transmission” with #DeltaVariant seen in Australia 🇦🇺—one person brings it in, everyone gets it. This is why we need to stop every single chain of transmission with added masks.
Bad news for UK 🇬🇧 and the rest of the world… hospitalizations in England due to #DeltaVariant are now accelerating upward even faster than before, according to new data compiled by @COVID19actuary. 🏴 is ~half fully #vaccinated—UK planning to start 3rd dose in Sept for age 50+.
2) Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all increasing in the UK. Scotland cases now at all time record high too. Israel cases and hospitalizations up too.
Overwhelmed hospitals are back—a hospital in Springfield (Missouri) now on “#COVID19 diversion", sending hospitalized patients to other cities and nearby state, as #DeltaVariant gains momentum where large swaths of residents aren’t vaccinated. kmov.com/news/hospital-…
2) said four Cox hospital patients recently were transferred to BJC HealthCare, a St. Louis-area health system with 14 hospitals including Barnes-Jewish, a big teaching hospital tied to Washington University’s medical school.
3) Another four Cox patients have been transferred to St. Luke’s Health System in Kansas City, Edwards said.
Edwards cited internal Cox data showing 47 COVID patients transferred into Cox facilities from June 1 to 21,
FACT: A virus that is less lethal than before (eg vaccination), or infects a lower risk (younger) population can actually *kill & maim more victims* if it’s more contagious (#DeltaVariant) or allowed to spread to more people (e.g. ⚽️ games), than if a virus is merely more lethal.
2) This above statement is proven by epidemiology models. Let’s not wait to “find out for ourselves” and then pretend “nobody could have predicted this” later when it’s too late.
3) Most of these people infected at #EuroCup were young. Most will not be hospitalized. But many will be hospitalized and transmit to others who are more vulnerable. And in the end it’ll maim more people than a less contagious virus that is merely more fatal.
Anyone who doubts the #DeltaVariant wave is coming only needs to look at Israel🇮🇱 and UK🇬🇧—two of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. Hospitalizations are increasing ⬆️ in both countries too. US🇺🇸 is ~1 month behind UK—but US vaccinations are slowly. #COVID19 🧵
2) Are England 🏴 hospitalization increasing? Yes.
3) are Scotland 🏴 hospitalizations also increasing? Yes.
BREAKING—A **third #COVID19 vaccine** will be offered to half of UK 🇬🇧 residents with a flu jab starting September to reduce need for restrictions this winter. All residents age 50+over will be urged to get another shot to ensure immunity does not wane. 🧵 thetimes.co.uk/article/half-o…
2) A third dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine can boost immune protection. In new trial, 3rd dose of AZ vaccine nearly seven months after first two shots—participants reported higher antibody levels after the third dose than a month after the second. #COVID19nytimes.com/2021/06/28/wor…
3) The new data, detailed in a preprint manuscript that has not yet been peer reviewed, came from 90 study volunteers in 🇬🇧 who were among the earliest to receive shots in clinical trial last year. This past March, they were given third dose, roughly 30 weeks after their second.
Heard an insane quote—On 4th of July: “If you're an unvaccinated individual, try to be around as many vaccinated persons as you can be”, said a scientist that I won’t name.
Ummm, what? Just like Singapore #DeltaVariant outbreak? 21 transmissions from a green (vaxxed) circle.
2) How about telling unvaccinated people to MASK instead? Or stay away from other people period until they are fully vaccinated? Or else it’ll only drive this…