HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.
47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.
What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.
Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.
2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.
This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇
41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree. 3/8
7 out of 10 respondents are (very) concerned about the impact of Brexit & the Protocol.
This is as much about democratic implications as economic ones.
Indeed, checks & controls GB-NI is the least of their concerns.
57% also say UK should align with EU rules to reduce those 4/8
As in last poll, trust in actors to manage NI interests re: the #Protocol is low...
With notable exception of business reps who are trusted by the majority🤝
Levels of trust in the UK Govt rose since March... from 5% to 6%😬
Trust in the EU is 40%, but distrusted by 48%.
5/8
8/10 said candidates' positions on the Protocol will determine how they cast their votes in the next Assembly #election.
Looking ahead to the 2024 '#consent vote' on the Protocol, we see that voters are evenly split as to whether they want their MLAs to vote for or against.
6/8
As a sign of quite how exercised people are on the topic, over 500 people went to the trouble of adding written comments at the end of the poll.
These are harder to depict in a tweet, but powerful to read.
It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...
NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).
There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much. 2/9
"How would you describe your national identity" - a comparison here between 2011 & 2021.
A drop in British only (down 8 percentage points), and a rise in Irish only (up by 4 % points). 3/9
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8