Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: Euros – Quarter Finals

Here I give you a statistical rundown on all the players to pick and avoid as we head into the quarter finals:

#Euro2020 #EuroFantasy

*In collaboration with @drafthound – my content partner

*Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent

Make sure you check out @Drafthound's designated #Euro2020 section ⬇️

✅ Player rankings
✅ Predicted line-ups
✅ Individual match odds

Everything you need for your #EuroFantasy team 👇

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Switzerland v Spain: Spain arrive into this game topping every underlying attacking statistic I have studied. They are ranked by far in terms of big chances, xG and xG from open play. To put things into context, Spain have accumulated 22 big chances in total – the next best...

... are Netherlands with 17 and France with 12. This tells me that tripling up on the most probable Spanish front three in Sarabia, Torres and Morata is likely to be a profitable strategy. Sarabia is averaging more than one big chance involvement per game in the tournament...

... while Torres alone registered three big chance involvements in the game against Croatia. Morata is top among all players in the tournament for big chances and shots in the box but his finishing, as has been the case often in the past, has let him down – but his goal...

... against Croatia should provide him with some much-needed confidence to kick on. Defensively, Spain have been dodgy throughout the tournament conceding the highest number of big chances of all the teams to have qualified for the quarter finals. Remarkably, 75% of the...

... shots in the box they have conceded have come in the form of big chances. Nevertheless, according to @drafthound, they are still backed by the bookies odds as having the second best clean sheet odds of all teams this week.

Belgium v Italy: This is the game to avoid in this matchday as far as Euro fantasy is concerned. I don’t think there will be big points scored here, so I believe Euro fantasy managers should stick with the contingent of the Italians that they have. Italy will likely keep it...

... tight, so a clean sheet is very possible – particularly in the potential absence of De Bruyne. Chiesa’s match winning cameo against Austria is likely to lead to the exclusion of Euro fantasy favorite Berardi. I’d keep Berardi given the bigger fires that...

... Euro fantasy managers have to prioritize but I’m all for the idea to take a couple of hits this matchday – particularly if it helps you cover for a potential absentee in your 11 or someone like a Berardi who is likely to get a one pointer.

Czech Republic v Denmark: This is the game to pick differentials from depending on which team you are backing. I’m backing Denmark for a win again – defensively they have conceded the least number of shots in the box and a minimal number of big chances so should be...

... good for a clean sheet here, in my opinion. Maehle is averaging over six penalty area touches per game and being the monster he is, picks himself. Denmark is under-rated going forward as well – only Italy have created more chances than them in this tournament. It’s hard to...

... pick an obvious talisman in the absence of Eriksen though – Damsgaard is prone to being subbed early while usually the goals are spread around. I wouldn’t go overboard in investing in this fixture – because the potential winner is likely to face England in the next round.

Ukraine v England: According to the odds, this is the fixture to target this week. England are heavily backed to make the finals of the Euros given how the draw has panned out. In this matchday alone, England are easily ranked as the team most likely to keep a clean sheet...

... or to score 3+ goals in a game. England’s attacking numbers haven’t been great so far but it still makes sense to back two of their most nailed attackers this week. Kane is the most likely player to score a goal or a hattrick this matchday according to the bookies odds...

... Sterling is top among all England players for xG this tournament so is worth backing again to continue his form. Grealish is a great option if he starts but unfortunately, we are unlikely to receive any confirmation regarding this before the deadline so he is best avoided...

... Defensively, Pickford and Stones would be my pick – Maguire is nailed too but he is just one yellow away from a potential suspension in the next matchday.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my work during the Euros and will also be contributing to my threads for FPL next season! Make sure to follow him to show your support!

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