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1 Jul, 6 tweets, 2 min read
#COVID19 UPDATE THREAD *SUN BELT* – JULY 1

All graphics are 7-day averages.

(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)

SUN BELT
(AL, AR, AZ, CA, GA, LA, MS, NM, NV, SC, TN, TX) Image
Today’s Sun Belt raw reported metrics:

- Tests: 202,436 (-19,171)

- Cases: 6,956 (+1,917)

- Deaths: 141 (-32)

- Hospitalized: 5,934 (-49)

- ICU: 1,303 (-29)

(Tests/Cases/Deaths: +/- = chg from raw count same day last week)
(Hosp/ICU: +/- = chg from yesterday’s census)
Last Sun Belt-only update this week. Tomorrow we’ll have the US numbers and standard regions. Hospitalizations and ICUs down from yesterday, and deaths down from last week. Cases are up, though CA is still reporting backlogged cases this entire week (& is ~40% of the increase).
How was the Sun Belt doing on this date in 2020? Worse. Here were the 7-day averages on this Thursday last year:

- Tests: 279,786

- Cases: 25,783

- % Pos: 9.22%

- Deaths: 217

- Hospitalized: 21,446

- ICU: 2,672 (no AR, SC, TN, or TX ICUs reported this time last year)
Our current numbers are a fraction of last year, despite life returning much more to normal now + the Delta variant + ~15 months’ worth of audit/backlog data that shows up frequently. Of course, that’s also with vaccines and prior immunity. Less dry tinder sure changes the game.
No mini-regionals tonight. Too much work going into the holiday weekend.

Still to decide whether tomorrow’s the end of the road for our gathering and posting dashboard data.

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More from @TheLawyerCraig

Craig Profile picture
3 Jul
I wanted to take a look at the trend in hospitalization census in states that are now predominantly #DeltaVariant according to the graphic below (including FL & IL, which are close). I'll do some comparisons to Alpha back in April as well.

🧵Thread🧵 Image
First, here is a map of the 2-week change in 7-day-average hospitalization census for each of the states above (according to state dashboards as of yesterday's data, compared to the average on Friday 2 weeks prior): Image
At a glance, low vax states tend to be doing the worst, which makes intuitive sense (though we're discounting prior infection by looking only at vax status, of course). But there are outliers. For example, why should IN be on a better trajectory than CA?
Read 11 tweets
Craig Profile picture
3 Jul
#COVID19 UPDATE THREAD – JULY 2

All graphics are 7-day averages. Raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.

(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)

UNITED STATES Image
*Combined* Weekly raw metrics:

- Tests: 4,816,638 (+315,048)

- Cases: 93,543 (+16,138)

- Deaths: 1,770 (-396)

- Hospitalized: 14,327 (+471)

- ICU: 2,834 (+29)

(Tests/Cases/Deaths: +/- = chg from total last week)
(Hosp/ICU: +/- = total chg from last Friday)
*Average* Daily raw metrics:

- Tests: 688,091 (+45,007)

- Cases: 13,363 (+2,305)

- Deaths: 253 (-57)

- Hospitalized: 14,327 (+67)

- ICU: 2,834 (+4)

(Tests/Cases/Deaths: +/- = change from daily avg last week)
(Hosp/ICU: +/- = daily avg chg from last Fri)
Read 24 tweets
Craig Profile picture
14 Jun
This is untrue in several respects, and this is getting awfully frustrating. I'll touch on a few of them...
First, we're not "2 weeks past the Memorial holiday weekend data issues." Memorial Day deflates reported cases & deaths for *days after* Memorial Day. The Tuesday is extremely deflated, and usually it takes days to return to normal pipeline reporting. This time was no different.
Also, what do you think happens to the 7-day average when metrics are deflated into the middle or late portion of the holiday week? It captures that deflation and carries it further, of course. So the 7-day average is artificially low typically through the *following* ~Wed.
Read 14 tweets
Craig Profile picture
13 Jun
Got a bit curious about the US v. UK as it relates to the #DeltaVariant. Some good news on that front for the US: at least in the early stages, the US rate of increase is nowhere near the UK.

🧵thread🧵
First: I used covariants.org/per-country, which shows percentage of sequenced variants based on 2-week blocks. One potential point of confusion to note when you use the site: the dates along the x-axis indicate the *start* of the 2-week period.
Here are the percentages of sequences that made up the #DeltaVariant in the UK (by 2-week period):

3/22-4/04: 0.09%
4/05-4/18: 1.45%
4/19-5/02: 8.92%
5/03-5/16: 33.17%
5/17-5/30: 72.58%
Read 15 tweets
Craig Profile picture
12 Jun
Arizona was the first state to show sharp rises during the 2020 summer wave. In fact, we already saw movement by this time last year. So here's a thread comparing AZ's 2020 and 2021 trends. I looked at the 2021 7DA ending 6/11 v. 5/21 and 2020 7DA ending 6/12 v. 5/22.

🧵thread🧵
First, I used a 3-week comparison to place 2020 and 2021 on as even a footing as possible. Memorial Day 2020 was 5/25, so using 1 or 2 weeks would have placed Memorial Day in either 2021's or 2020's comparisons. Not good. Also, all % changes are weekly, not for the 3-week period.
2020

(5/22 ➡️ 6/12; metrics are 7-day avgs)

Cases: 348 ➡️ 1,227 (+84.0% weekly)
Tests: 8,121 ➡️ 12,092 (+16.3%)
% Pos: 4.29% ➡️ 10.14% (+45.5%)
Hosp: 802 ➡️ 1,277 (+19.7%)
ICU: 319 ➡️ 412 (+9.6%)
Deaths: 17.7 ➡️ 18.9 (+2.2%)

Significant 2020 increases (except lagging deaths).
Read 13 tweets
Craig Profile picture
12 Jun
#COVID19 UPDATE THREAD – JUNE 11

All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.

(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)

UNITED STATES Image
Today’s raw reported metrics:

- Tests: 874,909 (-251,449)

- Cases: 14,354 (-5,462)

- Deaths: 481 (-111)

- Hospitalized: 16,577 (-424)

- ICU: 3,501 (-103)

(Tests/Cases/Deaths: +/- = change from raw count same day last week)
(Hosp/ICU: +/- = chg from yesterday’s census)
Really a solid Friday to end the week. First week ever with no days above 500 raw reported deaths. First week ever with no days above 15k raw reported cases. Large case drop from last Friday. And new pandemic low—again—for positive testing percentage.
Read 6 tweets

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