Thread by @MylesMcNulty

ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.

'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1407275892758487040

Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.

With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.

Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12

...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.

Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.

But much more importantly for the investment case:

3/12

Affimers have now been proven in diagnostics. Yes, it took an age for #AVCT to get its LFT developed and CE Marked; but the time taken to do so has ensured that the first ever commercialised, Affimer-based IVD just so happens to be the best of its kind in the world.

4/12

It blows its competition - which are almost all monoclonal antibody based - out of the water.

And @avacta just so happens to hold the global patent for Affimers in IVDs for another 12+ years.

#AVCT's LFT is also the first product in its branded range of Affimer-based IVD...5/12

...products: "AffiDX".

This product range - if the next few products (launches scheduled in 2022/23) achieve the same global-first-in-class status as the #COVID19 LFT - is going to become one of the most sought after brands in the world by the Diagnostics majors.

6/12

The @avacta investment case is founded on that exclusive right over Affimers for the long-term. They were, after all, specifically engineered by @Tomlinson_lab and colleagues to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

That is why I am absolutely convinced that... 7/12

...the investment has been largely derisked in recent weeks. Of course, there'll be plenty of volatility along the way (as we've just been grimly reminded of!) - but #AVCT is now on the path to becoming a serious player in the Diagnostics world.

Personally, I see the... 8/12

...Diagnostics division achieving a valuation of (many?) multiples of #AVCT's current mkt cap of £435m. It could take 3 years, it could take 3 months.

Either way, the commercial launch of such a high quality LFT has made that target valuation - for me - an inevitability. 9/12

That leaves investors with what is essentially a free carry on @avacta's Therapeutics division (albeit funded by the cash generated by the Diagnostics division!).

And by now I think that everyone is well aware that the Therapeutics div could completely dwarf the... 10/12

...Diagnostics div in value, in the longer-term.

Chemotherapy without the side effects. If animal data are replicated in man this year, the pre CISION technology could multiply the size of the $60bn per annum global chemo market by several times. Need I say more?

11/12

For those who have been messaging me about whether I am concerned about #AVCT's recent SP fall, hopefully this thread explains why I am entirely at ease.

The past two months have been transformational for @avacta.

In my view, the SP will 'shortly' 😂 reflect that.

12/12