Thread by @MylesMcNulty

1 month on, and FeV (Europe) has increased by 27%.

#BMN is down several % month-on-month.

Broker EBITDA forecast for 2022 is $80m, based on an average FeV price of $40/kg.

The global V market is incredibly inelastic. There are very few deposits that are nearing... 1/11

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1395621925083299840

...construction ready. It's doubtful that any new production will be able to come online within the next two years - apart from the primary producers, #BMN and $LGO, expanding their operations.

@BushveldMin_Ltd owns two of only four primary production operations worldwide. 2/11

It is incredibly leveraged to the V price, which itself is illiquid and prone to exceptional moves.

With the global economic recovery driving steel output to all-time highs, demand for V (which is primarily used to strengthen steel) is steadily increasing.

3/11

Moreover, the commercialisation of the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery industry is rapidly building up a head of steam - which adds to global demand for V.

Demand increasing, no new supply coming online in the near-term - see the above retweet for what happened to V in 2018...! 4/11

Despite the obvious appealing fundamentals on the pure mining side the biz, I still would not be holding if it were only that to the investment thesis.

Like MKA and TGR, #BMN also has an integrated 'green tech' aspect of its business. It's in the process of manufacturing... 5/11

....an electrolyte plant in SA, which will produce the highly valuable liquid that is the key ingredient of VRFB technology. There are very few of these plants in the world, period.

Furthermore, #BMN has supply agreements with two leading VRFB companies - #IES and Enerox. 6/11

#BMN has also pioneered a V rental agreement, whereby these VRFB manufacturers / owners can lease the V for 20 years or so. This drastically reduces upfront capex of the VRFB, one of the major hurdles at present to global adoption.

This is possible because the V in a... 7/11

...VRFB is recyclable, even after 20 years and the battery itself has reached end of life. The V can be extracted by #BMN and then sold into the steel industry.

Essentially, @BushveldMin_Ltd will create an annuity-esque revenue stream, growing steadily year-on-year...

8/11

...with each VRFB installed. And, as a bonus, it gets to sell the material all over again in 20 years.

#BMN:

- One of only 3 pure play V producers worldwide.
- Heavily geared to the very evident price squeeze in V that is now on;
- Trading on sub 5x 2022 EV/EBITDA, at...

9/11

...FeV pricing of only $40/kg (currently $43.3/kg and rising rapidly!);
- Acting as a major catalyst in the growth of the VRFB market, which could become a core industry in the stationary energy storage sector;
- Building out an annuity-esque biz.
- Within 4 years, #BMN... 10/11

...also intends to have doubled V production to 8,400 tonnes pa. At $50/kg, that would amount to $420m revs pa, just from mining (EBIT margin would be 50-60%).

Much, much more to cover about @BushveldMin_Ltd #BMN(!), but I hope this helps as a basic intro for newcomers. 11/11