As price grinds sideways-bearish, coins are being scooped off the exchanges at a very bullish rate.

PS. The latest sizing of withdrawals vs deposits are at local highs at levels that signal a bottom, whales are scooping.
Here's another view of it, in terms of supply shock... the ratio of coins available on exchanges vs total supply (inverted so it tracks price).

Quantitative supply shock underway.

Last time I saw this, it took some time before price bounced (Oct 2020); it bounced hard.
A qualitative view of supply shock. Measured in holders who ain't likely to sell vs the ones that do.
IMO anyone short this market will get rekt given enough time. It's just a waiting game until the fundamentals prevail.

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More from @woonomic

6 Jul
JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up.

Here I'll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind.

There's 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it'll be immediately bullish.

coindesk.com/grayscale-unlo…
Grayscale is a unique product. It's designed as a black hole that sucks in BTC.

No BTC ever leaves the trust, apart from Grayscale taking its 2% management fees from the holdings, this is the only way to reduce the GBTC inventory.
How does GBTC increase its holdings?

They allow accredited investors to add BTC into the trusts holdings in return for receiving shares in the trust (which normally trades at a premium to BTC).

This is the so-called "carry trade".
Read 8 tweets
20 Jun
Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.

Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.

We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
So who is selling?

Whales aren't selling.
Sharks aren't selling.
Dolphins aren't selling.

Big holders are holding.
Read 9 tweets
18 Jun
#marketupdate, IMO from on-chain is sideways then bullish in maybe a week or so.

Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety.
The first thing to look at is to answer "are we in a bear market". Welp, bear markets start when no new buyers enter to support price and that aint happening, we have healthy growth of new users joining the network.

Let this frame all other metrics.
Of primary interest is capital rotation from stablecoins back into the crypto markets (I'll say that's mainly BTC since alt coins are reducing in dominance).

All of that dry powder sitting on the sidelines has started flowing back in.
Read 11 tweets
17 Jun
I've updated NVT Signal to correct for upward drift in the metric (due to volumes moving off the blockchain and only L2).

And yes, BTC is OVERSOLD at historic levels.
NVTS was first published in Feb 2018 by @Kalichkin, as a more responsive trading signal based on my NVT Ratio.

woobull.com/nvt-signal-a-n…
Exchange dominance increased over time. This had the effect of making a proportion of the long term investor volume invisible to on-chain analysis, only happening inside exchanges.
Read 6 tweets
1 Jun
A thread about NVT, one of the first on-chain signals first published in Feb 2017.

This is a 2021 re-hash of my NVT learnings since then.

"How to use on-chain volume to establish a fundamental valuation for Bitcoin."
Ever seen this chart of BTC's on-chain volume vs its market cap and wondered why they track so closely?

On-chain volume measures the amount of money moving between investors as seen on the blockchain per day. It's highly correlated to market cap.

But why?
Let's lay down a first principles equation for a pure store of value network:

value moving between investors = value of the network * how much the money supply churns

In short form:
I = M * V

where:
I = Value moving between investors
M = Market Cap
V = Monetary Velocity
Read 13 tweets
9 May
This cycle is different; the movement of coins to strong holders is unprecedented.

Chart: purple line tracks coins moving between weak and strong hands (running total over 128 days)

Raw data: @glassnode
A few observations regarding the trend towards strong HODLing...

1) No way are we entering a bear market. That's obvious this week from price action, but not so obvious 2 weeks ago when the sky was falling.
2) Coins moving to corporate treasuries likely making an impact.
Read 6 tweets

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