Grayscale is a unique product. It's designed as a black hole that sucks in BTC.
No BTC ever leaves the trust, apart from Grayscale taking its 2% management fees from the holdings, this is the only way to reduce the GBTC inventory.
How does GBTC increase its holdings?
They allow accredited investors to add BTC into the trusts holdings in return for receiving shares in the trust (which normally trades at a premium to BTC).
Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.
Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.
We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
#marketupdate, IMO from on-chain is sideways then bullish in maybe a week or so.
Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety.
The first thing to look at is to answer "are we in a bear market". Welp, bear markets start when no new buyers enter to support price and that aint happening, we have healthy growth of new users joining the network.
Let this frame all other metrics.
Of primary interest is capital rotation from stablecoins back into the crypto markets (I'll say that's mainly BTC since alt coins are reducing in dominance).
All of that dry powder sitting on the sidelines has started flowing back in.
Exchange dominance increased over time. This had the effect of making a proportion of the long term investor volume invisible to on-chain analysis, only happening inside exchanges.