Thread by @dd0wney

Mathematically the delta strain has an R0 of at least 5 meaning it's an exponential problem that should have been nipped in the bud two weeks ago. abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0…

The Irish Gov now recommends Vitamin D supplementation as they found Vitamin D deficiency, less then 50nmol/L, results in higher instances of hospitalization
#Sydneylockdown #covidnsw
data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/…

This has been supported by a further study by Judy et al. Those with less than 50nmol/L of Vitamin D are more likely to be hospitalised #Sydneylockdown #covidnsw
academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-a…

To touch on the R0 of the Delta variant and its exponential transmissibility.
As the minimum R0 value is 5, substitute O(n^2) with O(5^number_of_generations) to calculate the potential number of infected [a]symptomatic cases #sydneycovid #covidnsw

Ultimately the Delta variant was a known entity, in terms of transmissibility, for months in the UK, India, etc. QLD, VIC, NT, and WA all acted swiftly and are now down to single digits. NSW scoffed at the swift lockdowns in June #sydneycovid #covidnsw

Ultimately, Covid-19 inoculation rates for AUS are some of the lowest outside of Africa #sydneycovid #covidnsw ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…

Why I am concerned and apparently NSW Health is as well is due to the combo of low vaccination rates and the high transmissibility of the Delta strain and the potential Vitamin D deficiency in the community of South West Sydney #sydneycovid #covidnsw

From the Irish Gov report on Vit D deficiency above:
"A study conducted to assess the Vitamin D status of a sample of the Dublin residents of South-East Asian
descent found that, in total, 93% of the total sample were Vitamin D deficient" #sydneycovid #covidnsw

From Jude et al.:
"Age-,sex-and seasonal variation-adjusted odds ratios for hospital admission were 2.3-2.4 times higher among participants with serum 25(OH)D<50nmol/L, compared to those with normal serum 25(OH)D levels, without any excess mortality risk." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

Twitters Analytics engine needs some tuning... clearly 85 != 100 #sydneycovid #covidnsw

From the Irish Gov study:
"Finland, a Nordic country with low sunlight intensity for much of the year, has experienced the lowest daily number of Covid-19 cases and the lowest deaths from Covid-19 in the EU and UK." #sydneycovid #covidnsw oireachtas.ie/en/press-centr…

"As far back as 2003, Finland introduced national recommendations for the fortification of liquid milk and spreadable fats with Vitamin D, doubling the level of this fortification in 2010..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"In 2014 they increased their recommended doses of supplemental Vitamin D to levels likely to yield meaningful benefit in relation to immunological function..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"(including doses of 20 micrograms per day (i.e. 800 IU/day) for all those aged 75 years and over). A 2016 study showed that these policy changes had produced increases in daily Vitamin D intake from..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"5 to 17 micrograms per day in men and from 3 to 18 micrograms per day in women between 2002 and 2012. Additionally, more than 75% of the adult population..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"had achieved blood vitamin D levels above the critical *50nmol/l threshold* for enhanced immunity by 2012." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"The Finnish approach to food fortification and supplementation has successfully raised
Vitamin D levels across the Finnish population over the past 20 years..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"While there may have been other aspects of Finland’s pandemic response which have been beneficial, it is highly plausible that enhanced population Vitamin D status..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"has been a significant factor in Finland's low observed incidence and case-fatality rates from Covid-19 over recent months..." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

"As of 8th March, Finland had a total of 138 fatalities from Covid-19 per million population, roughly one-sixth of the total in Ireland which had 896 per million
population." #sydneycovid #covidnsw

Playing out the scenario of R0 = 5, the current estimated lower-bound of the Delta variant #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw

Some sources are claiming an R0 anywhere as high as 8 - if this is the case, delaying lockdowns will quickly spiral out of control #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw

I should have printed "potential infected" rather than "infected" and even then those infected may be asymptomatic. #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw

My frustration with NSW Gov *and* Fed Gov is the seeming unwillingness to shut down non-essential services, i.e. provide JobKeeper and support to businesses during the lockdown #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw

Particularly stemming from this interview on 24/06/2021. It is either incompetence or negligence given all the data I've shared in the thread(s) today #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw

#sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19Aus #COVID19nsw
Four days prior after the couple drove through regional NSW to QLD was the time for a lockdown. Look at the numbers above. The virus spreads exponentially

NSW should've locked down on 20/06/2021 except B. Hazzard was too busy playing down the outbreak on ABC News on 24/06/2021 after contracting the virus
#sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus

https://twitter.com/terryflap/status/1413667514324721672?s=20

Direct quotes from Brad Hazzard incoming :
#covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

05:28
"well I think um I've don't believe that we will go on a lockdown i've made that I saw some journalists saying that last night but that's the journalists drawing
their own conclusions..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"which is not helpful I think that we need to actually take health advice and the health advice is that the new orders that came into play yesterday afternoon are proportionate to our risk..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"but people do need to be extremely cautious people need to understand that this particular variant is quite capable of getting [getting] it's a very active virus and we need to be understanding that and follow the orders" #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

Interviewer 06:00
"So what do you say to the WA premier who's urging you to crush and kill this virus he wants to see a lockdown says that this light touch that new south wales talks about is endangering the nation"#covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

Brad Hazzard 06:14
"um look Mr McGowan is prone to [to] an interesting use of language and giving advice when I don't think that's necessarily helpful uh he knows nothing about what's happening in new south wales..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"I don't intend to comment on him I've avoided commenting on him for 15 months I think we'll just leave it at that we've managed our community been fantastic here in new south wales..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"they have responded each time to each of the messages we've had a very successful balance here in new south wales um..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"of keeping our economy open our economy leads the country. That's very important for mental health and obviously for more broadly our health and the each of the decisions we've taken..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"have always been based on health advice and the health advice is very clear these are the current requirements and they've been put into health orders..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"but it's not so much the order itself it's just asking the community to be with us on the journey as they have been all the way along the line..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"I think that we will get through this but we just need to make sure that we try and limit our interactions we don't move around..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"we've made the point that in the seven local government areas of city of Sydney, Waverly, Randwick, Canada bay you know west bayside lower..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"They must not travel outside Sydney unless it's absolutely critical so I think we've done all that's necessary..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"We'll handle it the same careful calm way that we've handled it right through this pandemic..." #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

"But we don't need advice from somebody who has basically one road across the Nullarbor that he closed at a moment's notice so we will work without that uh the assistance of Mr McGowan" #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus #sydneycovid

@abcnews Would you care to follow up with Minister Hazzard regarding his comments on your program 24/06/2021? Why has NSW Gov ignored the lessons learned in VIC, QLD, WA, TAS, NT, NZ and in Europe? See thread for direct quotes #sydneycovid #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus

@abcnews Given doctors are now leaking to the press the current state of affairs in hospitals across NSW and the exponential transmission rate of the #DeltaVariant
#sydneycovid #COVID19nsw #covidnsw #COVID19Aus smh.com.au/national/hospi…

@abcnews Further Q's for Minister Hazzard - How is it that business leaders are providing recommendations to the NSW Gov on pandemic response actions? #sydneycovid #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…