Thread by @LaurenBinDC

As Tigrayan forces retake territory and Amhara leaders rally their own forces, PM Abiy's government signals what appears to be an end to its ceasefire. The hostilities bode ill for civilians caught in the middle, and for efforts to stop famine from spreading in #Tigray. 1/

https://twitter.com/ebczena/status/1415261933721333763

#Ethiopia's government appears to suggest it will allow aid operations in #Tigray as it moves to "defend the country's sovereignty and reverse the threat posed by internal and external enemies of the country."

https://twitter.com/mfaethiopia/status/1415254158941335553?s=19

Only one convoy of aid supplies has been allowed to enter #Tigray since the GoE declared its ceasefire on 6/28, however - others were blocked. Aid agencies stress an urgent opening of access is necessary to stop famine conditions from spreading.
thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2021/7/12…

In reporting from #Tigray's capital after federal forces fled the city, pictures of jubilant residents suggest popular support for the TDF. Recruits cite abuses - by forces allied with the federal govt, including Eritrea's - as motivation to take arms.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1415264827828736000?s=19

AP & @nytimes reports have documented under-age recruits. AP quotes a 16 yr old girl who says she wanted to fight because "the Eritreans did not show restraint because we were too young" to be raped. PM Abiy says the TPLF uses child soldiers "by numbing them with drugs."

With Abiy signaling the fed govt's intent to resume its fight in Tigray, Qs arise about the state of the ENDF. There are no reliable casualty estimates for the conflict to date, but the TDF claims the military suffered massive losses, and that it now holds a large # of POWs.

In addition to Amhara efforts to rally forces and resources for the fight, some unconfirmed reports suggest regional forces from Oromia may be in transit to join the fighting in Tigray. Unclear if the ENDF needs such reinforcements, or what that might mean for security in Oromia.

Meanwhile, speculation abounds about the TDF's plans. Will it prioritize opening a route to Sudan, reclaiming other territory, or pushing the EDF back into Eritrea? Will it overestimate its capacity? And what does the fighting mean for aid access?

As the war continues, chances seem slim for a resumption of power, telecom & banking services in Tigray. Fuel imports, critical for humanitarian operations, are another key need cited by aid officials.