For years, the death toll of #SouthSudan's civil war has been guesswork, with many repeating an estimate put out in the 1st year of "over 50,000." This new study puts the toll, in Year 5, at almost 400,000. (Thread)
The study, by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine w US funding via @USIP, suggests a conservative est. of over 382,000 "excess deaths" as a result of the conflict. Roughly half of these were due to violence, the rest due to disease & reduced access to healthcare.
The study found that most of the excess deaths occurred in the NE (Greater Upper Nile) and the south (the Equatorias), and that the majority killed were adult males, but also women & children.
This map shows the mean est. crude death rate by county during the war - the highest rates were in Unity, in particular Leer, Mayendit & Rubkona (Bentiu), around Malakal & the W. Bank area of Up. Nile, and around Juba & Mundri W. 
This shows the geographic spread of the impact of the #SouthSudan civil war in terms of mortality.
The @LSHTM study found that excess deaths due to #SouthSudan's civil war peaked in 2016 and 2017 - after the signing and collapse of the 2015 peace deal, when the war gained intensity & spread.
The death toll peaking in 2016-2017 coincides with surge in displacement after the collapse of the peace deal in July 2016.
The @lshtm study challenges current population estimates for #SouthSudan, putting the current population in the country at 9.7 million. This is significantly lower than the CIA World Factbook estimate of 13 million.
This has an impact on how we talk about the % of the population that is displaced and in crisis:
If the pop. is 9.7M and 1.9M are internally displaced, then 1 in 5 people living in the country are IDPs.
Over 73% of the pop. (7.1M) are severely food insecure.
If the pop. is 9.7M and 1.9M are internally displaced, then 1 in 5 people living in the country are IDPs.
Over 73% of the pop. (7.1M) are severely food insecure.
A #SouthSudan diplomat in DC dismisses the study's findings, contending that the death toll is less than 20,000 (vs. >380,000). @siobhan_ogrady covers the story here:
The @LSHTM study puts the death toll from #SouthSudan's civil war (conservatively around 380,000) closer to that of Syria's civil war, which, like that of SS, is disputed, but by some estimates between 400,000 to over 500,000. nytimes.com/2018/04/13/wor…
As @petermartell, who has a new book out on #SouthSudan, notes, a credible death toll based on statistical analysis is very important:
The @LSHTM study's finding that the level of *violent* deaths peaked in the years after the last peace deal collapsed also serves as a warning, that war could worsen if a deal fails. The 2015 deal's collapse led #SouthSudan's conflict to spread...
This meant that not only did humanitarian conditions in the existing areas of conflict worsen, but conflict spread into other areas, and along with it, violence and food insecurity. The high death toll from the war emphasizes the need not just for peace, but sustainable peace.
A final point from the @LSHTM analysis - the experts note their own surprise at the extent of violent deaths in #SouthSudan and suggests that "violence should be more prominently acknowledged as the main driving factor for this crisis." This is critical....
As int'l actors and "friends" of #SouthSudan consider the country's ongoing peace process, accountability for violence and *real* security sector reforms are absolutely critical. Elite power-sharing alone won't resolve the deep divisions in the country.
