Thread by @MoriartyLab

NEW DATA available now on the CANADIAN EXCESS MORTALITY TRACKER

Courtesy of new data drop from @StatCan_eng July 12

French translation of the @RSCTheAcademies report comes out tomorrow.

Link to Tracker in French in tweet below.

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…

@StatCan_eng @RSCTheAcademies

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1415738961977298945?s=20

@WilsonKM2 you'll be glad to see some numbers for Atlantic/Northern Can have come down since last update--for regions with low numbers these numbers may tilt back and forth a bit. Numbers are increasing everywhere else. Still less than 95% of reporting completed after Dec 5.

Slowest reporting in this group is in NS, as well as territories (I provide data for reporting completion with today's update), so global estimate for Atlantic and Northern Canada will be more accurate than individual estimates for a while still.

SK, MB, BC lead pack in delays.

In some regions I'm also finding more COVID-19 deaths reported to the CVSSD than numbers reported by the provinces, so I expect our reported C19 numbers will keep going up as specific cause of death reporting catches up. Not a huge difference (yet).

However, given that multiple provinces, especially BC, SK and MB, have not completed >=95% of cause of death reporting after Feb 1, 2020 (yes, 2020), it could be a long wait to find out if this accounts for large difference in excess mortality and reported COVID-19 deaths.

New info added in today's update:

1) Dates of 90%, 95% and 99% completion of specific cause of death reporting (as you can see from looking at QC data, we need this to be 99% complete--at very least 95%) to form reliable conclusions.

2) Numbers of outstanding deaths in each region for which specific cause of death reporting is incomplete (total 41,815 for Can since Feb 1, 2020) (Table 1)

3) Table 2: toxic drug-death adjusted excess mortality up to Dec 5, 2020 (latest date when interpretation is reliable)

4) Fig. 1: Age-stratified excess mortality and reported COVID-19 deaths by region, to May 8, 2021 (periods of uncertainty/incomplete data for each region indicated)

5) Fig. 2: Regional comparisons (total, per 100K pop, age-adjusted per 100K pop)

Thanks to @COVID_19_Canada for hosting, @BensunCFong for posting and @StatCan_eng for sharing data publicly so all Canadians can access them.

P.S. I'll add some key take home bullets to the Tracker pages in the next week or so, once I catch up from being away.

P.P.S. Still haven't done a thread summarizing the report. It might not be possible till Sunday or later, once I get my nose above water.