Mar 19

1 of every 41 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 64 BC
1 in 72 AB
1 in 76 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 45 ON
1 in 28 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 1,026 deaths, 1,969 LTC/RH cases, 838 LTC/RH deaths Image
Mar 19

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 1,026 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 925 Canadians may die in next 28 days Image
From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45 years and older

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions:

BC 62X
AB 39X
SK 51X
MB 24X
ON 65X
QC 108X
Canada outside Atlantic & Northern regions: 68X Image
Mar 19

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19 this many people died of COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 7X
AB 11X
SK 8X
MB 16X
ON 12X
QC 30X

Rest of #Canada 14X
Rest of World 8X

*after adjusting for population differences Image
Mar 19

#COVID19 #Canada DEATHS since Feb 2020

Table: Deaths/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total deaths (mid top)
-Total deaths per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in deaths (bottom right) Image
Mar 19

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb 2020

1 in 5 BC
1 in 7 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 4 MB
1 in 8 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 1,969 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days Image
Mar 19

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic and Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions*

BC 6X
AB 11X
SK 4X
MB 13X
ON 11X
QC 32X
#Canada 14X

*adjusted for population differences Image
Mar 19

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home DEATHS since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita deaths + change last 7 days, % total deaths in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total deaths in LTC/RH (R top) Image
Mar 19

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian DIAGNOSED with #COVID19 this many people were diagnosed with COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 9X
AB 17X
SK 14X
MB 13X
ON 12X
QC 19X
Rest of #Canada 13X
Rest of World 8X

*after adjusting for population differences Image
Mar 19

#COVID19 #Canada CASES since Feb 2020

Table: Cases/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total cases (mid top)
-Total cases per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in cases (bottom right) Image
Mar 19

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes DIAGNOSED with #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs were DIAGNOSED in other regions*

BC 4X
AB 10X
SK 2X
MB 7X
ON 10X
QC 16X
#Canada 10X

*adjusted for population differences Image
Mar 19

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home CASES since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita cases + change last 7 days, % total cases in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total cases in LTC/RH (R top) Image
Mar 19

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in CASES

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that epidemic may be speeding up again. Image
Mar 19

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in HOSPITALIZATIONS

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that hospitalizations may be speeding up again. Image
Mar 19

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in DEATHS

WHY?

Shows:
1) if efforts ONE MONTH AGO helped
2) warning clues if deaths may be speeding up

ALSO: Rates of change in deaths help us estimate effects of measures such as vaccination in LTC/RHs, where reporting is slow Image
Link to explainer of excess mortality estimates and what they mean:
Sources of collated official data (in addition to @StatsCan_eng & provincial sites), with huge thanks:

@NoLore

@RyersonNIA

@CU_IIJ

@covid_canada

@OurWorldInData

Thank you to everyone protecting themselves & others by choosing vaccination.

/end Image

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More from @MoriartyLab

22 Mar
Thread on Canadian excess deaths during #COVID19, round 3.

Why do I keep posting about this?

Because I'm worried we've missed a lot of C19 deaths outside LTC and that we may see many more during the 3rd wave because of slow rollout of vaccination of older adults in community.
When did I start thinking about this?

Last year, after reading a paper from @LauraCRosella & colleagues about excess mortality during first wave in Ontario, estimated from cremation data (which is reported fast and includes place of death information).

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Actually, it dates back further, to a @CIHI_ICIS report on #COVID19 deaths in congregate care in #Canada, which found that 80% of deaths in the first wave were in congregate care (long-term care, retirement homes), which in turn is twice the OECD average.

cihi.ca/sites/default/…
Read 13 tweets
17 Mar
On Sunday night I posted an analysis of excess deaths in #Canada since start of #COVID19 deaths.

The results were concerning, but interpretation was complicated by parallel toxic drug death epidemic.

I have now corrected for toxic drug deaths.

The results are still concerning.
Methods:

1. Took weekly excess deaths data from StatsCan (www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…).

2. Added excess deaths for each province/region starting first week when 1 death/million people reported to Nov 15 (last week when we have fairly complete Canadian excess death data): CUMULATIVE
For those who don't know, "excess death" is the number of deaths MORE than what you'd expect in any given period. More than all the normal deaths that occur in the population yearly.

Here's how excess death is calculated...
Read 49 tweets
15 Mar
Concerns about possible under-reporting of #COVID19 deaths in 4 #Canadian provinces:

Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC

This thread will be fairly long. I've assembled it to try to crowd-source insights from those knowledgeable about provincial C19 death reporting.
First, I'll start with plots of cumulative excess deaths in Canada until Nov 14 (the last date when we have fairly complete excess death reporting for most of Canada).

I've set the start date as the first week when a province or territory reached 1 reported C19 death/million pop
Here are the excess deaths/100K, for those interested.
Read 30 tweets
13 Mar
Mar 12

1 of every 41 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 62 BC
1 in 71 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 45 ON
1 in 28 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 1,310 deaths, 2,064 LTC/RH cases, 811 LTC/RH deaths
Mar 12

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 1,310 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 1,100 Canadians may die in next 28 days
From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45 years and older

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions:

BC 62X
AB 39X
SK 51X
MB 24X
ON 65X
QC 108X
Canada outside Atlantic & Northern regions: 68X
Read 19 tweets
12 Mar
Mar 12

Excess deaths/100K in #Canadians 45+ years old
(fold difference compared to Atlantic & Northern Canadians)

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Excess deaths/100K in #Canadians (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to reported #COVID19 deaths

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Total excess deaths in #Canadians (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to reported #COVID19 deaths

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Read 12 tweets
20 Feb
Feb 19

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 57 BC
1 in 72 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 2,745 deaths, 7,433 LTC/RH cases, 1,885 LTC/RH deaths
Feb 19

-#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 2,745 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 2,267 Canadians may die in next 28 days
Feb 19

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 7 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 4 MB
1 in 8 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 7,433 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW
Read 13 tweets

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