Why did we do this study? Azithromycin was identified early on as a potential candidate for COVID (+/- HCQ). Although it’s relatively safe, antibiotic use causes antibiotic resistance, and unnecessary widespread use of an antibiotic is a bad call. We need to know if it works. 2/n
There were some reasons to think it MIGHT work: azithromycin has anti-inflammatory properties and is used in other pulmonary diseases to reduce inflammation and has some in vitro anti-viral properties. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to efficacy, so we need a trial. 3/n
Azithromycin has been widely used for COVID globally and many people told us they felt better after taking it. Without a trial, we don’t know if that’s a real effect, if people were getting better anyway, or of it was a placebo effect. 4/n journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…
We chose a masked, placebo-controlled design with a matching placebo to minimize some of these biases. Participants were randomized to single dose #azithromycin or matching placebo after enrollment and followed remotely for 21 days. 5/n
The primary outcome was absence of symptoms 14 days after enrollment. It was a dead heat between arms: exactly 50% of participants in each group were symptom-free at 14 days. We saw no evidence of a difference in specific symptoms, either. 6/n
Participants receiving #azithromycin had more gastrointestinal adverse events vs placebo, not surprising. Those in azithromycin arm visited emergency dept more often, and all 5 hospitalizations in azithro arm - numbers are small for those comparisons so interpret w/ caution. 7/n
As with any study, lots of limitations. Some biggies are sample size (underpowered for impt outcomes like hospitalization) and relatively high loss to follow-up (~25%). Recruitment was slower than planned and retention was difficult b/c remote trial. 8/n
Results are largely in line with another azithromycin for outpatient COVID trial published this week. 9/n thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Overall takeaway: no evidence that #azithromycin helps for #COVID19 symptoms or other outpatient endpoints; some evidence it may make things a little worse. IMHO, no role for azithro in #COVID19 management w/o bacterial co-infection. 10/end
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An evaluation of mass #azithromycin distribution on respiratory #virome suggests children have ⬇️non-SARS coronavirus viral load in communities receiving azithromycin compared to placebo. These findings are intriguing, with some important considerations. academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
This is a non-prespecified analysis from the #MORDOR study. These data pre-date COVID19 emergence by years. Most importantly, this paper does not say anything about whether azithromycin does or does not work for COVID19.
Mechanism unclear (and this study is not designed to address that). Azithromycin has anti-inflammatory effects, so could be related to that. Could be some secondary effect of reducing bacterial effect, or an off-target effect on viral replication. Also could be chance.
I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a lot of #RegressionDiscontinuity (specifically, interrupted time series) studies evaluating effects of #COVID19 restrictions on all kinds of outcomes. Some thoughts on when RD can be useful and why it might not always be a great idea. 1/n
RD is a method that can be used to evaluate effects of exposures when a continuously measured variable has a cutoff value that can be used to assign treatment (or other exposure) status to those just above or below the threshold. 2/n ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
If the cutoff at least partially assigns exposure and is not correlated with outcome, it could be an assignment variable for an RD design. Examples: CD4 counts assigning HIV treatment or calendar time assigning vaccination status based on date of introduction of a vaccine. 3/n
A journal is threatening to take me personally to collections for an unpaid balance on a manuscript I wasn't the corresponding author on. Really? Threaten my personal credit history for unpaid work which you charge me to publish (a journal also for which I referee for free)? 😡
Not going to name the journal (as @evolscientist pointed out, it's the publisher not the journal doing this). Not going to name publisher just yet. Mostly wanted to point out how broken the academic publishing system is, and how awful it feels to be in a situation like this.
@evolscientist Thanks to everyone for the support. It makes me feel a little less sick to know there's a community out there that's just as outraged as I am.