CPAC Straw Poll Thread 1/

CPAC met last weekend in Texas. They had a straw poll. Trump came on top of the straw poll (of course). When they asked if Trump is NOT on the ticket 2024, who do they want. Overwhelmingly CPAC straw poll picked this racist asshole bastard from Florida
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 2/

First. Let's be VERY clear. Florida's racist sexist mass murderer asshole Governor Death DeSantis #DeathSantis is a monster. He is Trump on steroids. He is living breathing proof of what becomes of GOP as they get ever more insane with the Maga sickness
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 3/

It is GOOD for us to consider the evil that is Ron DeSantis, so we see where the GOP is headed

But people are freaking out about the CPAC Straw Poll. As if Ron DeSantis is the 'front runner' of the 2024 GOP race for Presidential Nominee

Is LUDICROUS
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 4/

Ron Death Santis is many things. He may EVEN be one of the front runners for SOME national office, but he is MOST DEF not the front runner for GOP Nomination for President in 2024 (which is overwhelmingly Trump)
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 5/

Even if you take Trump OUT of the running for 2024 (maybe has heart attack, maybe has run into exile, whatever) - Ron Death Santis is NOT THE FRONT RUNNER in GOP. If Trump is out - the front runner BY A MILE is .. Ted Cruz
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 6/

The ONLY viable position Gov Death Santis is running for, is Veep. And it is HIGHLY unlikely that he gets it. Because both Trump and Cruz will prefer to take a token woman as the Veep, and for both, their woman of choice is Nikki Haley
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 7/

But Tomi, it is a poll?

No. It is NOT a scientifically relevant, or in any way accurate statistical tool even though it misleadingly uses that word. It is a STRAW poll. Straw polls are MEANINGLESS. Let me prove it to you. With CPAC own Straw polls
From the very first CPAC straw poll over 4 decades, there have been 15 years of the poll without an incumbent Republican, in a non-election year

The winners were:
Jack Kemp 3x
Phil Graham
Steve Forbes
Gary Bower
Rudy Giuliani
George Allen
Mitt Romney 2x
Ron Paul 2x
Rand Paul 3x
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 9/

The CPAC poll has 2 times in past 15 attempts of a genuinely open race, picked the winner. The were wrong 13 times. This poll has accuracy of 13%

CPAC poll has predictive ability of 13%

Or Veep? The Poll is slighly better: 20% chance (Kemp with Dole)
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 10/

To use the CPAC straw poll as a 'tool' to measure any candidate's support, is as silly as using your thermometer.

It will tell you SOMETHING (temperature). But will not tell you who is going to be the next Presidential nominee
CPAC Straw Poll Thread 11/

What CPAC is, is an opportunity for the garden variety racist Nazis to get together in the lazy summer months, to pretend to be inclusive, and come listen to their token black dude mumble at them. Wot? Did Herman Cain die of Covid? Ok get the other one

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More from @tomiahonen

17 Jul
Goya Beans & Tan Suits Thread 1/

Last year about this time Trump made a notorious pitch of Goya products from the Oval Office. It included this classic image, which deservedly received a massive amount of mocking on Twitter.

The event bothered me, in being bizarrely out of tune
Goya Beans & Tan Suits Thread 2/

Yes, Trump was making outrageous pitches for all kinds of products all the time. But even in that context, this Goya Beans day was bizarre. That bothered me, it did not fit the 'pattern' of Trump normal behavior, self-serving as that also was.
Goya Beans & Tan Suits Thread 3/

Today as I was reminded of the Goya day. I suddenly made the TIMING leap. Only a few days after Goya, was the TAN SUIT day. We did not know at the time but figured out soon enough afterwards, the full relevance of Tan Suit day in the White House
Read 19 tweets
16 Jul
First look at 2024 and 2028 Thread 1/

With news of a silly CPAC straw poll (Ron DeSantis will not be GOP nominee in 2024) that had Trump overwhelmingly winning the poll, let's take a first look at 2024 election and GOP nomination race. It is highly likely Joe will face Trump
First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 2/

The CPAC poll is meaningless. I discussed it in this thread, showing past CPAC polls and the math, that the chances of the poll picking the GOP nominee is 13%. It is meaningless. It is SUMMER news FILLER garbage

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 3/

In any normal election, the losing candidate - on BOTH sides - steps aside:
Hillary
Romney
McCain
Kerry
Gore
Dole
Daddy Bush
Mondale
Carter
Ford
McGovern
Humphrey

It is how US politics works. You don't piss in your own party's pool to lose 2x
Read 36 tweets
16 Jul
So who is that Unindicted Co-Conspirator, Jeff McConney. He is the number 2 bookkeeper at Trump Org. Right hand man to Weisselberg. The Controller. So an accountant for 30 years with Trump. Is cooperating and has limited immunity for testifying to Grand Jury. This guy
What Jeff McConney testimony means, is the final nail to the Weisselberg 1 trial series of New York tax fraud. Because Manhattan DA has the double bookkeeping, all they need is this inside guy to tell what that bookkeeping is, and this case is closed

They do not NEED Weisselberg
Because the number 2 bookkeeper is testifying to Grand Jury, gets immunity, he will not be indicted. He will not go to prison (but will have to pay his own back taxes of course, which likely are of a scale of half a million dollars, when we compare to Weisselberg one million)
Read 12 tweets
16 Jul
Second thing. What was Qevin McCarthy doing meeting Trump? It is early case study that illustrates the GOP nightmare that is Donald Trump

When they said this meeting is about 2022 election, we know that is not it. Both will lie instinctively to hide the truth.
Qevin was in NJ to meet Trump to discuss the Jan 6th Committee. The appointments. Qevin (and GOP) are at loggerheads with Trump. It is a lose-lose situation. But Qevin (and GOP) will face this same nightmare again, and again, and again going forward into 2022 and 2024 (and 2028)
Qevin thought he was doing what was best for GOP by refusing to name any GOP representatives to the House Select Committee on Jan 6th (Pelosi's Committee). She had foreseen this, made the rules give her TWO extra seats. She gave one of her extra seats to Liz Cheney the Republican
Read 9 tweets
15 Jul
Let's play
Six Degrees of Kevin Putin

Pelosi to Trump "All roads with you lead to Putin"

Mike Pence - Manafort - Deripaska - Putin
Don Jr - Torshin - Putin
Bill Barr - Deripaska - Putin
Sean Hannity - Firtash - Putin
#MoscowMitch McConnell - Deripaska - Putin

#TraitorTrump
Let's play:

Six Degrees of Kevin Putin
Pelosi to Trump "All roads with you lead to Putin"

Mike Pompeo - Rybolovlev - Putin
Jared Kushner - Veselnitskaya - Putin
Rand #RedPaul - Kilimnik - Putin
#LeningradLindsey - Deripaska - Putin
Rudy Giuliani - Firtash - Putin

#PutinTrump
Let's play

Six Degrees of Kevin Putin
Pelosi to Trump: "All roads with you lead to Putin"

Steve Mnuchin - Blavatnik - Putin
Wayne Lapierre - Butina - Torshin - Putin
Tucker Carlson - Deripaska - Putin
Ivanka Trump - Rybolovlev- Putin
Eric Trump - Closet - Lost

#TrumpPutin
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul
Trump Financial Crimes Thread 1/

Now that Jared is getting caught in the Sanctions-Busting part of Trumpomobster crimes, some are asking 'what is this crime'? Let's dig into the Trump financial crimes (all involving Weisselberg of course)

Let's do a thread
Trump Financial Crimes Thread 2/

Tax Fraud is a very easy simple crime to explain, and the JURY are shared victims, because tax crimes against all, involve the rest of us having to pay higher taxes to cover the cheat. Which is why tax fraud crimes are relatively easy convictions
Trump Financial Crimes 3/

Weisselberg 1 the first Trump tax criminal trial is simple Tax Fraud, and run by Manhattan DA, which has the largest pool of financial criminal investigators in the world. They have all the evidence, tax returns, Deutsche Bank records, witnesses
Read 21 tweets

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