Thread by @tomiahonen

First look at 2024 and 2028 Thread 1/

With news of a silly CPAC straw poll (Ron DeSantis will not be GOP nominee in 2024) that had Trump overwhelmingly winning the poll, let's take a first look at 2024 election and GOP nomination race. It is highly likely Joe will face Trump

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 2/

The CPAC poll is meaningless. I discussed it in this thread, showing past CPAC polls and the math, that the chances of the poll picking the GOP nominee is 13%. It is meaningless. It is SUMMER news FILLER garbage

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1416064666846089218

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 3/

In any normal election, the losing candidate - on BOTH sides - steps aside:
Hillary
Romney
McCain
Kerry
Gore
Dole
Daddy Bush
Mondale
Carter
Ford
McGovern
Humphrey

It is how US politics works. You don't piss in your own party's pool to lose 2x

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 4/

Of COURSE if you are the SITTING incumbent President, you are ALWAYS renominated for the re-election by your party. ALWAYS
Trump
Obama
W
Bill Clinton
Daddy Bush
Reagan
Carter
Bush
Nixon

What Trump has now done, heading into 2024, is to cheat

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 5/

Trump has convinced enough REPUBLICANS (not us! We know it is not true) that he is STILL President. Or his election was fraudulently taken. So he can assume that INCUMBENT role

It GUARANTEES he will be nominee in 2024, if Trump decides to run

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 6/

The GOP will not get to decide. Because the BASE of Republican voters are now magamad, if Trump says he will run, they will cheer and nominate him

It is UTTERLY irrelevant, whether Trump is 'fat' or 'tired' or 'senile' or even INDICTED...

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 7/

It does not MATTER to the maganutters that Trump is loopy and nutty and cannot string together a sentence. They LOVE him. If Trump says he will run for 2024, he CLINCHES the nomination

Why? WINNER-TAKE-ALL primaries

The GOP are not like DEMs

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 8/

There is no political universe, where Trump announces his run, and is not winning most primaries in 2024. EVEN if Trump is a CONVICTED FELON by 2024. His brainwashed maganutters will think it is fake news, a witch hunt, and will nominate Trump

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 9/

Will Trump run? He is a narcissist psycopath, who is ADDICTED to the maga rallies. His CAMPAIGN pays audiences to attend. Consider how absurd it is, for a losing campaign to waste its funds this way. Trump is ADDICTED to the crowds

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 10/

If you have a relative who is trying to stop smoking, you know what addiction is. But Trump is NOT TRYING to stop campaigning. He has ALREADY started to campaign for 2024. ANY other Presidential campaign EVER would not start until 2023

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 11/

Trump is SO addicted to rallies, he has started his re-election campaign TWO YEARS before the NOMINATION race would typically start, on EITHER side of the political divide. It is CLEAR Trump intends to run for 2024

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 12/

It is possible that some OUTSIDE event takes Trump away from campaigning (heart attack, etc). I am NOT counting on that. I deal with PROBABILITIES. It is MOST likely that Trump is the 2024 nominee

Do not DELUDE yourself like the maga.

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 13/

If Trump is nominee in 2024 against Joe and Kamala, Trump is HIGHLY likely to pick Nikki Haley has his Veep (he hates Pence, and Putin has stopped funding Trump campaign so Trump will drop Pence)

How would 2024 go for Trump-Haley?

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 14/

In 2016, when America did not know who Trump is, they gave Hillary 2% more votes. By quirk of Electoral College, Trump became POTUS

By 2020 USA knew who Trump is, and voted him out by 4% vote margin. This was BEFORE January 6

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 15/

Almost every re-election cycle, USA loves to re-elect the sitting President. Biden is a REMARKABLY popular President. Just by re-election math alone, Biden's rematch against Trump will get at least 6% margin.

But Jan 6 makes it AT LEAST 8%

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 16/

Donald Trump is the MOST toxic politician in AT LEAST 90 years, having lost the GOP the White House, the Senate and the House inside 2 years

This is the WORST candidate GOP could nominate for 2024. He SINKS OTHERS with him

An ANCHOR to them

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 17/

After the Jan 6th hearings, it is HIGHLY likely that Trump will become EVEN MORE toxic than he is now.

Yet the GOP cannot get rid of their Frankenstein's Monster. #MoscowMitch McTurtle had the chance. Biggest political blunder in US history

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 18/

With Impeachment 2, all Mitch needed to do, was to tell his GOP Senators to vote to convict Trump. It was close enough. Mitch screwed up, and now the GOP will suffer through 2024 with Trump destroying political careers

Not us. Only the GOP

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 19/

I am NOT suggesting it will be a cake walk. We have a very tough midterm election fight now coming in 2022 and a big fight for 2024. But Trump is going to DAMAGE the GOP and lose in Mondale-type of scale

Trump is a POLITICAL GIFT to the DEMs

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 20/

What if Trump is NOT the nominee in 2024? Then it would be Gov Death Santis, right? Because of CPAC straw poll. No. Gov DeSantis will not be the front runner. Will not even finish second. HE will be an ALSO-ran for VEEPstakes 2024...

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 21/

Do NOT think like a Democrat. Think like a Republican. It is THEIR nomination race

Democrats like to fall in love
Republicans like to fall in line

They ALWAYS nominate the guy who is NEXT IN LINE. ALWAYS
Romney
McCain
Dole
Daddy Bush
Reagan

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 22/

In 2016 the Republicans made a MASSIVE mistake with Trump. If they recover enough for 2024, to NOT nominate Trump (for any reason), then they will of course REVERT TO FORM, and nominate the RUNNER UP from before...

...that would be Ted Cruz

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 23/

America's most hated politician has played for this moment his whole political career, ever since Trump clinched the GOP nomination in 2016. Cruz HATES Trump. But Cruz is playing to be NEXT IN LINE after Trump. It has been his ONLY game

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 24/

That is why Cruz has made so many pathetic moves towards Trump, including the absurd speech in prime time at the Convention 2016, to Cruz promising to represent Trump at SCOTUS (haha, he knew it never gets there). Cruz is PLAYING the maga

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 25/

And the Maga hate Cruz. BUT they hate Cruz LESS than they hate Pence. & Cruz has FAR stronger campaign than Leningrad Lindsey or Marco Rubio. Cruz finished a STRONG second in 2016

He is not CERTAIN to win after Trump

He is the FRONT RUNNER

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 26/

If Trump by some miracle is not running for 2024 but is in the USA, & coherent, & not inside a prison, then EVERY Republican will want his endorsement. Trump will take a bribe for it of course. BUT he will NOT endorse an enemy (like DeSantis)

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 27/

Only two viable front-tier candidates for 2024 have an inside track to Trump endorsement. Only 2. Leningrad Lindsey Graham or Ted Cruz. It will not be a HOUSE member like Matt Gaetz or Gym Jordan. Trump is NOT close with Governors

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 28/

Yes, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Pompeo will try to get Trump endorsement. I think they are dark horses. Trump remembers LOYALTY. And of the ass-kissers, Ted Cruz is the only one who never wavered on Trump support

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 29/

If for ANY reason Ted Cruz is 2024 nominee (with likely Nikki Haley Veep) he will lose to Joe Biden by MORE than Trump would. Because he is universally hated. He has enough baggage to smell like Trump. But is not beloved by maga for turnout

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 30/

It is BY FAR most likely, that Trump is the nominee for 2024. PREPARE FOR THIS

The NEXT LIKELY scenario has Ted Cruz as the nominee 2024. This is FAR less likely. But he is the CLEAR front-runner if Trump is not running for 2024

Now.. 2028?

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 31/

The MOST likely scenario has Trump running in 2024. If so, he will lose WORSE than he did in 2020. And he will cause Republicans to lose races that were close

Why? INDEPENDENT voters HATE Trump. The voters in the middle. It is game-over

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 32/

The GOP (leadership) knows they are screwed with Trump, so they are praying for some miracle.

But the #Cult45 cannot understand reality. They will nominate Trump and if so, he will lose in epic scale in 2024

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 33/

If Trump is on the ticket in 2024, he will get something close to Mondale 1984 level catastrophic election loss to the GOP. After 2024, the party will expel Trump. It will anger his base supporters. But it is the ONLY way for the GOP

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 34/

When we consider the CRIMINAL trials of Trump, & election cycle 2024, it is near certain, Trump is in several criminal court trials during 2024 campaign. He may be convicted already (and would still campaign, from prison. Yes that is legal)

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 35/

But by 2028 Trump will be in prison on a series of life sentences. And the GOP will have kicked him out of the party

THEN in 2028 Ted Cruz can run with Nikki Haley (remember, we assume now, Trump ran and lost in 2024) against Kamala Harris.

First look at 2024 & 2028 Thread 36/

It would be the ultimate kiss by Karma, if Trump wipes out Ted Cruz 2028 campaign - from prison. If Trump asks his supporters to WRITE IN Trump 2028, and just 10% of GOP voters did that, it would eliminate 3% of total vote from Cruz :-)