Thread by @althecat

This is a long statement, probably a bit too long, but interesting and important. My reading is that Ethiopia has not yet decided to abandon the unilateral ceasefire, but that frustration is going, both with the TPLF and their ongoing offensive....

https://twitter.com/mfaethiopia/status/1416240002753875969

... and with ongoing one-sided diplomatic/media understanding of the Tigray conflict.

The @NYTimes story from @declanwalsh (see below) has become a lightning rod for public and government concerns that Ethiopia is not being listened to or being given due respect internationally.

https://twitter.com/declanwalsh/status/1414595822814126080

Not only did the story contain significant, and absurd factual errors (particularly in relation to the timing of a @ChrisCoons call to @AbiyAhmedAli in Nov 2020. But over the implicit approval, glorification, of the illegal use of child soldiers in the conflict by the TLPF.

In the five days since the story was published the UN, US and EU's statements have been contradictory, muted or foolish. The EU's ongoing aggressive pursuit of human rights investigations which are underway has become one flashpoint.

The Ethiopian response to this is to say (as they did again in this statement) that there is an investigation underway, a joint one, which they are cooperating in. This investigation is however inhibited by an ongoing live conflict.

Yesterday's remarks from @USAmbUN struck a nerve again for this reason. The TPLF response to a widely welcomed unilateral ceasefire declaration was to resume their offensive military activities. And this is the context for Ethiopia to Greenfield's remarks.

https://twitter.com/USAmbUN/status/1416123093676961794?s=20

Because of the renewed TPLF offensive (remembering that they also started this war in November 2020), Ethiopia has had to reinforce its military presence in the region again.

One paragraph and phrase in Greenfield's UNSC remarks jumped out.

"In the Tigray region of Ethiopia, access by road and by air – along with electricity, telecoms, banking activity, and fuel supplies essential to aid delivery – are being denied. This is unconscionable ..."

It is important to read the full context of this and note that the @USAmbUN's remarks are addressed universally - and to many different humanitarian crises.

But for Ethiopia this misses the point. usun.usmission.gov/remarks-by-amb…

Not only is there an ongoing war underway in Tigray. but the actions of the aggressor in that war - from an Ethiopian perspective - are, and have always been - the primary cause of the humanitarian crisis.

Moreover solutions sought: "access by road and by air – along with electricity, telecoms, banking activity, and fuel supplies essential to aid delivery", are things which can also be used by the remaining aggressor in this conflict, the TPLF, to continue to pursue their war.

The international statements from not just @USAmbUN, but also @JosepBorrellF (EU high Representative) and @StateDept's @SecBlinken on this deepening crisis are consistent in one key respect. They do not acknowledge the role of the TPLF in initiating and prolonging this conflict.

The @nytimes @ChrisCoons error is one of thousands of egregious examples of this, albeit maybe the worst.

In his article @declanwalsh reported that the Senator called @AbiyAhmedAli on eve of the war cautioning him about going to war.

Thread Correction: The article in which @NYTimes Africa Correspondent @DeclanWalsh made the mistake (later attributed to @ChrisCoons misremembering the timing of his call was published June 21 (the day of the Ethiopian Election) & corrected June 25th. nytimes.com/2021/06/21/wor…

Correction: The article in which @NYTimes Africa Correspondent @DeclanWalsh made the mistake (later attributed to @ChrisCoons misremembering the timing of his call was published on June 21 (the day of the Ethiopian Election) & corrected June 25th. nytimes.com/2021/06/21/wor…

In the circumstances of their being two errors in this earlier story one might have expected @NYtimes editors to have been a little more careful with this report.

Para 5 of @declanwalsh's follow Tigray battle report:

"The war erupted in Nov., when a simmering feud between PMAbiy Ahmed and Tigrayan leaders, members of a small ethnic minority who had dominated Ethiopia for much of the three previous decades, exploded into violence."

The full story of the beginning of the Tigray War remains contested around some important details, but the core facts are clear. The TPLF launched a surprise attack. They invited commanders to a dinner and then attacked several bases simultaneously. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4_Novembe…

To cast this as the result of a "simmering feud" between @AbiyAhmedAli and TPLF leaders is at best disingenuous. It is clear that the war was started via aggressive TPLF military action, and that during that action they secured significant military hardware including missiles.

And several days later they fired some of these missiles at Eritrea. An astonishingly reckless act given the long running conflict which began in 1998 [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%…] reuters.com/article/us-eth…

Entirely predictably this rocket attack on a neighboring country, brought Eritrea into the war.

This particular decision by the TPLF could also be seen as a calculated effort to blow up legacy of @AbiyAhmedAli's peace making efforts with Eritrea.

And this remains relevant now as Eritrea alongside Ethiopia are both accused, almost exclusively, of being responsible for the unfolding, and worsening humanitarian crisis in this area.

A charge often leveled against Ethiopia and PM @AbiyAhmedAli is that he prematurely declared victory in the war and lied about the ongoing conflict.

It's worth looking at what Abiy actually said on Dec. 24 2020. ethioembassy.org.uk/operations-to-…

If we are to believe @NYtimes account Ethiopia's PM, the leader of this ancient nation of 115 million people with a nominal GDP per capita of 936 USD (World Bank) - ranked among the poorest nations in the world - Abiy is irredeemable.He is a once lauded now tarnished leader.

But in the primary metric is targeting, i.e. lifting Ethiopians out of poverty, he has performed well.
In the two years since he assumed office as interim leader (pending an election - the election just held June 21) GDP has grew by 21%.

But back to the war in Tigray, what is Abiy's recollection of what happened. (From ethioembassy.org.uk/operations-to-…)

Abiy's statement begins explaining his personal commitment to settling disputes without violence. But explains that the TPLF made that impossible.

Abiy's background is as intelligence officer. And for those unfamiliar with Ethiopian recent political history its helpful to know that 44-year old Abiy was formerly part of the Tigray dominated EPRDF regime >> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian…

Abiy continues in his explanation of recent events to talk about efforts to mediate and then gets to the big when the war broke out. His account is different from the reports and is contested, but its worth reading what he said as it is an important part of the context.

I have not seen independent accounts which confirm this - and its possible that its completely false - but what I do know is that this is a story that is widely believed in Ethiopia, and as you might imagine, is a lightning rod for strongly held views on the Govt. side.

And as such it is one of numerous reasons why the current situation in Ethiopia is so dangerous. Add in ongoing misinformation and disinformation activities by numerous actors and you can see why Western Power unwillingness to directly criticise or call out the TPLF is an issue.

In the lead up to the Ethiopian election on June 21st Western interference became particularly pernicious and destructive to goodwill on all sides to this conflict.

And we know now (as reported on by @DeclanWalsh) the TPLF launched their offensive the following day.

The U.S.-EU High-Level Roundtable on the humanitarian emergency in Tigray held on June 11th on the fringes of the G7 meetings during Biden's visit to Europe is a case in point. webcast.ec.europa.eu/us-aid

The humanitarian crisis is undoubtedly worthy of this kind of discussion. But it was once again very one dimensional, it did not include an Ethiopian Govt. speaker and it largely ignored the very important live security issues, i.e. the war, which is at the heart of this crisis.

On June 22nd the TPLF launched a 2nd offensive, and things quickly spiraled out of control.
The UNSC scheduled a meeting for July 2nd, but before it, on June 28th, the Ethiopian Govt. declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew from most of Tigray.

Many media reported this unilateral ceasefire (including the @nytimes piece published on 11 July) as if it were a glorious and just victory of some kind, alleging that the Ethiopian Govt. had been defeated or that they had surrendered.

(Thread will continue tomorrow)

In the meantime here is today’s #ArabianMonsoonBurst update and #hornofafrica / #ME / #Northafrica weather analysis thread.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1416460291219640323