Thread by @chrisprener

I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Sunday, 7/18 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few very, very concerning points 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday. We’re now getting close to 2k new cases per day on average statewide.

1/10

Honestly, I am a bit shocked because of the temporal shifts we’re used to seeing - slowdowns in reporting on the weekends. There is a bit of that, but also some areas that saw big increases reported. 2/10

A good example of this mix is in the Ozark Mountains, where Ozark County has had an accelerating accumulation of new cases since about the 10th of July. Other counties saw the expected drops yesterday, but rates remain quite high. 3/10

But the area that really stands out is Mid-Missouri. Five counties that I track closely saw big upswings yesterday, none more so than Cole County, home of our state capital. Cole is now no. 4 nationally for new case rates in counties >10k in population. 4/10

That list of new counties now contains six Missouri counties, along with two other counties in Arkansas. Both of these Arkansas counties - Marion and Baxter - share a border with Missouri. 5/10

The other Missouri counties are either in the Joplin or Springfield areas, two places I’ve been talking a lot about recently. 6/10

Though I’ve mentioned Mid-Missouri regularly lately as an area to watch, the rapid ascent of the Jefferson City metro’s 7-day average is really striking. It has just about the same per capita rate as both the Joplin and Springfield metros, but got there a whole lot faster. 7/10

This should give everyone in Missouri a really strong reality check. Things escalated there very quickly and can escalate in other metros and rural counties just as quickly. The time to put mitigation measures (other than vaccines) in place is now. 8/10

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 9/10

If you want to check on regional trends, disparities data, nursing home data, and hospitalization metrics, please check the website - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

My next 🧵 will be either tomorrow or Tuesday depending on our numbers, but I’ll give a quick update regardless. 10/10