I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Tuesday, 7/20 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

We’ve now plowed past 2,000 new cases per day on average in the last week, a place we were last at this past winter. 68% of new cases are outstate. 1/19
Recall that comparisons across time are hard because of various testing shifts. What is striking, though, is we have achieved significant transmission without either of our two largest cities being major contributors. This has been a rural and smaller metro outbreak so far. 2/19
Rates around both Joplin and Springfield continue to hold at very high rates, with some counties (especially around Springfield) showing small upticks yesterday. There are also at least three counties around Springfield at all-time highs (with caveats again about comparisons). 3/
In the Ozarks to the east, the same trend is holding in rural counties that sit between I-44 and the Arkansas border as well as further north, around Lake of the Ozarks. 4/19
In Mid-MO, and adjacent counties to the west (between Columbia and #KCMO), we are seeing the same pattern - steep increases last week have given way to little changes over the past few days. 5/19
Together, these counties make up a large, four-state cluster of very high rates of new cases that continues to be unlike any other geographic concentration of COVID in the United States. This map from the NYTimes tells the tale 👇 6/19 nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Missouri and Arkansas remain the two states with the highest rates of new cases nationally, and 8 of the 10 highest rate counties in the US (with populations over 10k) are in MO or AR. 7 of those 8 counties are in this “Ozark cluster.” 7/19
We’re also seeing an upswing in new cases around St. Joseph, MO. In addition to Andrew, Buchanan, and Gentry counties, this now includes Nodaway County (which had, until now, avoided the resurgence in new cases other Northern MO counties have seen). 8/19
All of this is driving metro rates in SW MO, Mid-MO, and NW MO that are showing steep upswings. Jefferson City continues to stand out for just how quickly things escalated with new cases. 9/19
I noted last night that hospitalizations in this same group of metros are also rising significantly as well. In SW MO, those hospitalization rates are comparable to what we saw during the fall/winter surge. 10/19
In terms of new cases, both #KCMO and #StLouis look rather similar right now, with rates just a bit lower generally in STL, but both metros seeing steady increases to their 7-day averages. 11/19
Here in #StLouis, hospitalizations have continued to increase. The 7-day averages we are seeing now are comparable to where we last were in February, but are showing little sign of slowing down. We’ve seen in-patient numbers more than double in the last month. 12/19
This is concerning enough that the Pandemic Task Force put out a warning today, urging folks in #StLouis to return to universal masking. Click through 👇 to read the full text of their statement. 13/19
Quite simply, the horse is out the barn door. I do not believe we have enough time in the STL and KC areas for vaccination encouragement to yield the rates we need to avoid significant spikes in new cases. In that context, we need additional measures. 14/19
The Task Force said that vaccines and masking are our two tools, but I disagree. There are other things we can do to buy our hospitals time, prevent overcrowding, and give people time to get vaccinated 👇. We need every tool in our toolbox right now. 15/19
Keep in mind this is happening in the context of significant racial disparities. Black and Latino individuals have borne a significant burden of illness. African Americans have borne a huge burden of death. We need to be doing everything we can to communicate… 16/19
… the importance of vaccinations but we also need to do what we can to keep these disparities from getting worse. Rates at the ZIP code level are higher in North City and North County than they are elsewhere in the City and County. We must act decisively. 17/19
My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 18/19
Additional data, maps, and plots are on my tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

I’ll also have a River City Data issue on Thursday, and will continue posting daily updates for the time being.

Re: African Americans and rates of infection - I missed this announcement that 80% of infections since may in the City and the County have been among Black folks. This is an absolute travesty. It did not have to unfold this way. 20/19

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More from @chrisprener

20 Jul
Breaking: Reposting the #StLouis Pandemic Task Force’s urgent appeal for a return to universal masking 👇. They’re very concerned about the numbers of deaths and ICU patients they’re seeing.
For some context and commentary, see the three follow-up tweets I posted to my original (now-deleted tweet) here 👇
I deleted the original post because I am now unsure of my interpretation of some awkward wording in their press release. I took the release to imply that ICU numbers had doubled overnight to 180, but I may be misreading what it says. The original post is here 👇 for reference.
Read 4 tweets
20 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/19 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few hospitalization trends to note are below 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday, inching closer to 2k new cases per day on average statewide. 1/11
A reminder to folks that the New York Times data (my source) runs a day behind, so today’s data reflect cases reported by Missouri on Sunday. Lots of small drops in a number of regions, as we’d expect. 2/11
Last night, I shared my concerns about the rapid increase in new cases in the Jefferson City metro area. I want to point out that Columbia is also seeing an increase as well. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
19 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Sunday, 7/18 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few very, very concerning points 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday. We’re now getting close to 2k new cases per day on average statewide.

1/10 ImageImageImageImage
Honestly, I am a bit shocked because of the temporal shifts we’re used to seeing - slowdowns in reporting on the weekends. There is a bit of that, but also some areas that saw big increases reported. 2/10
A good example of this mix is in the Ozark Mountains, where Ozark County has had an accelerating accumulation of new cases since about the 10th of July. Other counties saw the expected drops yesterday, but rates remain quite high. 3/10 ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
18 Jul
I supported Gardner’s run for office, believe in the idea that we need transformative DAs, and think the leadership of Black women in STL is incredibly important.

But this latest incident, of no prosecutor showing up at a homicide case for months, is really beyond the pale.
I started hearing rumblings about staff deserting the office - not because they didn’t believe in Gardner’s politics - but because they felt there was not leadership, no management there. “Well I’ll take this with a grain of salt,” I told myself.
Debates over Gardner’s conviction rate were easy to dismiss as partisan, especially given the folks who were pushing that narrative. It’s always been clear, because of racism and power hunger, some folks wanted Gardner to fail.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/5 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

Our statewide 7-day average is headed towards 1,000 new cases per day, with increases in all 3 meso regions. “Outstate” remains most concerning, though. 1/12
In that broad “outstate” swath, there are now three areas of greatest growth in new cases - NW MO around St. Jo, Mid-MO, and SW MO. Of these, SW MO is by far the most concerning. 2/12
In NW MO, what started in Worth County has spread, with steep increases in Adair, Buchanan, Gentry, and Holt counties. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
4 Jul
I haven't been to @SLULAW's building ever! But my office is in the former law library... does that count? I really don't know. 🤷

Anyway. I'm not a lawyer, *but* let's think about this collectively for just a minute... does Webster Groves *have* to admit any group? Image
The most relevant case law here I'm aware of is Hurley v. Irish American Gay, Lesbian, and Bisexual Group of Boston. This allowed the *private* organizers of the Boston St. Patrick's Day parade to exclude groups based on their message because...
... the organizers themselves have a first amendment right to determine the content of the parade (the parade itself is speech). So, if they wanted to discriminate, even if they have been fairly loose with who participated in the past. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurley_v.…
Read 8 tweets

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