Thread by @chrisprener

I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/19 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few hospitalization trends to note are below 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday, inching closer to 2k new cases per day on average statewide. 1/11

A reminder to folks that the New York Times data (my source) runs a day behind, so today’s data reflect cases reported by Missouri on Sunday. Lots of small drops in a number of regions, as we’d expect. 2/11

Last night, I shared my concerns about the rapid increase in new cases in the Jefferson City metro area. I want to point out that Columbia is also seeing an increase as well. 3/11

I’ve been waiting for HHS to release hospitalization data covering the July 4th holiday, and we finally got it today. First, we’re continuing to see a strong resurgence in “outstate” hospitalizations, though all three meso regions are climbing. 4/11

The Springfield and Joplin metros are seeing hospitalization rates that are equivalent to what they experienced during the fall/winter surge in cases in Missouri. 5/11

The St. Jo, Columbia, and Jefferson City metros have all seen large increases as well ☝️. In Jeff City, we have what appears to be another instance of hospitalizations as a leading indicator (they rose before new cases). 6/11

This gets me to the latest #StLouis Pandemic Task Force data, which has hit a one-day value of 300 confirmed+suspected in-patients for the first time in months, with big recent increases in all four 7-day averages. We've returned to more than 40 new patients per day on avg. 7/11

In the past, this average number of new patients was a bright line for the City and the County, which used that as an indicator that nonpharmaceutical interventions. This time, all we’re hearing is messages to get vaccinated. No one wants to rock the boat, it seems. 8/11

It’s imperative that our leaders return to helping hospitals rather than working against them. If vaccines are our only message, we are going to leave hospitals drowning in patients (as in Springfield). They cannot be our only mitigation measures. 9/11

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 10/11

If you want to check on regional trends, disparities data, nursing home data, and hospitalization metrics, please check the website - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

My next 🧵 will be tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/20.

11/11