I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/19 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few hospitalization trends to note are below 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday, inching closer to 2k new cases per day on average statewide. 1/11
A reminder to folks that the New York Times data (my source) runs a day behind, so today’s data reflect cases reported by Missouri on Sunday. Lots of small drops in a number of regions, as we’d expect. 2/11
Last night, I shared my concerns about the rapid increase in new cases in the Jefferson City metro area. I want to point out that Columbia is also seeing an increase as well. 3/11
I’ve been waiting for HHS to release hospitalization data covering the July 4th holiday, and we finally got it today. First, we’re continuing to see a strong resurgence in “outstate” hospitalizations, though all three meso regions are climbing. 4/11
The Springfield and Joplin metros are seeing hospitalization rates that are equivalent to what they experienced during the fall/winter surge in cases in Missouri. 5/11
The St. Jo, Columbia, and Jefferson City metros have all seen large increases as well ☝️. In Jeff City, we have what appears to be another instance of hospitalizations as a leading indicator (they rose before new cases). 6/11
This gets me to the latest #StLouis Pandemic Task Force data, which has hit a one-day value of 300 confirmed+suspected in-patients for the first time in months, with big recent increases in all four 7-day averages. We've returned to more than 40 new patients per day on avg. 7/11
In the past, this average number of new patients was a bright line for the City and the County, which used that as an indicator that nonpharmaceutical interventions. This time, all we’re hearing is messages to get vaccinated. No one wants to rock the boat, it seems. 8/11
It’s imperative that our leaders return to helping hospitals rather than working against them. If vaccines are our only message, we are going to leave hospitals drowning in patients (as in Springfield). They cannot be our only mitigation measures. 9/11
My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 10/11
If you want to check on regional trends, disparities data, nursing home data, and hospitalization metrics, please check the website - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

My next 🧵 will be tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/20.

11/11

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More from @chrisprener

21 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Tuesday, 7/20 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

We’ve now plowed past 2,000 new cases per day on average in the last week, a place we were last at this past winter. 68% of new cases are outstate. 1/19 ImageImageImageImage
Recall that comparisons across time are hard because of various testing shifts. What is striking, though, is we have achieved significant transmission without either of our two largest cities being major contributors. This has been a rural and smaller metro outbreak so far. 2/19 Image
Rates around both Joplin and Springfield continue to hold at very high rates, with some counties (especially around Springfield) showing small upticks yesterday. There are also at least three counties around Springfield at all-time highs (with caveats again about comparisons). 3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 20 tweets
20 Jul
Breaking: Reposting the #StLouis Pandemic Task Force’s urgent appeal for a return to universal masking 👇. They’re very concerned about the numbers of deaths and ICU patients they’re seeing. ImageImageImage
For some context and commentary, see the three follow-up tweets I posted to my original (now-deleted tweet) here 👇
I deleted the original post because I am now unsure of my interpretation of some awkward wording in their press release. I took the release to imply that ICU numbers had doubled overnight to 180, but I may be misreading what it says. The original post is here 👇 for reference. Image
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Sunday, 7/18 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few very, very concerning points 👇.

Our statewide and regional 7-day averages climbed again yesterday. We’re now getting close to 2k new cases per day on average statewide.

1/10 ImageImageImageImage
Honestly, I am a bit shocked because of the temporal shifts we’re used to seeing - slowdowns in reporting on the weekends. There is a bit of that, but also some areas that saw big increases reported. 2/10
A good example of this mix is in the Ozark Mountains, where Ozark County has had an accelerating accumulation of new cases since about the 10th of July. Other counties saw the expected drops yesterday, but rates remain quite high. 3/10 ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
18 Jul
I supported Gardner’s run for office, believe in the idea that we need transformative DAs, and think the leadership of Black women in STL is incredibly important.

But this latest incident, of no prosecutor showing up at a homicide case for months, is really beyond the pale.
I started hearing rumblings about staff deserting the office - not because they didn’t believe in Gardner’s politics - but because they felt there was not leadership, no management there. “Well I’ll take this with a grain of salt,” I told myself.
Debates over Gardner’s conviction rate were easy to dismiss as partisan, especially given the folks who were pushing that narrative. It’s always been clear, because of racism and power hunger, some folks wanted Gardner to fail.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/5 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

Our statewide 7-day average is headed towards 1,000 new cases per day, with increases in all 3 meso regions. “Outstate” remains most concerning, though. 1/12
In that broad “outstate” swath, there are now three areas of greatest growth in new cases - NW MO around St. Jo, Mid-MO, and SW MO. Of these, SW MO is by far the most concerning. 2/12
In NW MO, what started in Worth County has spread, with steep increases in Adair, Buchanan, Gentry, and Holt counties. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
4 Jul
I haven't been to @SLULAW's building ever! But my office is in the former law library... does that count? I really don't know. 🤷

Anyway. I'm not a lawyer, *but* let's think about this collectively for just a minute... does Webster Groves *have* to admit any group? Image
The most relevant case law here I'm aware of is Hurley v. Irish American Gay, Lesbian, and Bisexual Group of Boston. This allowed the *private* organizers of the Boston St. Patrick's Day parade to exclude groups based on their message because...
... the organizers themselves have a first amendment right to determine the content of the parade (the parade itself is speech). So, if they wanted to discriminate, even if they have been fairly loose with who participated in the past. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurley_v.…
Read 8 tweets

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