Thread by @jonworth

So the guys at @SmarketsPol asked me yesterday if I could make a kind of Brexit diagram for German government coalition options post-Bundestag election

I've not got a diagram together *yet*, but I have done some workings, and it's pretty interesting

#BTW21 🧵

Wikipedia's German polling page has a table called "Monatliche Mittelwerte" - basically an average of all the month's polls
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestag…

I've taken these numbers, and used them for this work, and have made my own July-so-far calculation as well

The overall state of the polling is shown in this graph

CDU did v well through the main part of the pandemic, lost 10 points, and have recovered a bit. Greens back to trend. FDP now up a good bit

But the question Smarkets asked me was about coalitions

So - for each month's polling January until July - which coalitions are *mathematically* and *politically* possible?

CDU/CSU referred to as Union throughout

My rule is pretty simple. All parties would prefer a two party coalition to a three party coalition, and adding more than the necessary number of parties to a coalition makes no sense.

And Others (Sonstige) are eliminated, because the parties in there won't get over 5% hurdle

January 2021

Only 2 coalitions (Union+Grüne, Union+SPD) possible - no three party coalition makes political sense or is mathematically possible

February 2021

Same as January

March 2021

Union begins to slip. Union+Grüne is the only 2 party coalition that now works. Union+SPD+FDP (Germany Coalition) hence becomes possible.

April 2021

Union slips further. Grüne bounce begins.

Union+Grüne the only 2 party coalition that works. Union+SPD+FDP (Germany Coalition) still works. And now Grüne+SPD+FDP (Traffic Light Coalition) also works - first time a non-Union coalition is in play

May 2021

Same as April. This month is the closest we get to a Grüne+SPD+Linke coalition being possible, but it is still not enough

June 2021

Grüne wane a bit, Union recover a bit, but the coalition options remain unchanged

July 2021 (ongoing)

Grüne weaken a little more, meaning Grüne+SPD+FDP is no longer sufficient, only Union+Grüne and Union+SPD+FDP work

What are the conclusions here?

At *no point* does a Union+Grüne coalition not have a majority

Union+SPD+FDP (Germany Coalition) is the most possible 3 party coalition

At *no point* do either Union+Grüne+FDP (Jamaica Coalition) or Union+Grüne+SPD (Kenya Coalition) make sense, as there is no need to add a third party

The only coalition not involving the Union to command a majority at any point is Grüne+SPD+FDP (Traffic Light)

I would say the outlook for the parties currently is:
Union - stable, leaning negative
Grüne - stable, leaning positive
SPD - stable
FDP - positive
Linke - stable

In other words I cannot see a way back to the January numbers for the CDU, and I cannot see a way back to the May numbers for the Grüne right now either

With the trend positive for the FDP, and if the Union suffer post-floods, it is possible that a Union+Grüne+FDP (Jamaica Coalition) might be necessary if the combined Union+Grüne % dips below 50%

At the moment it looks to me then that there are 3 coalitions seriously in the frame:
Union+Grüne (the favourite)
Union+Grüne+FDP (chances rising if Union falters)
Union+SPD+FDP (an option if everything else fails)

There is an ODS file with all my workings in it here: jonworth.eu/downloads/coal…

I might also update this if and when the polls change...

FWIW I am a member of the Grüne, but I am trying to objectively analyse everything here as well as I can!

Feedback very welcome!

/ends