🇬🇧 has a vaccine supply problem

It's important

A 🧵
Back in the winter and early spring, Johnson was crowing about how brilliant 🇬🇧 vaccine procurement rollout had been, and how - by comparison - 🇪🇺 was struggling

Now - in mid July - it is precisely the opposite
🇬🇧 bet on 8 vaccines in 2020 - AZ, BioNTech, Moderna, J&J, Valneva, Novavax, GSK-Sanofi and Curevac - and notably ordered and approved AZ and BioNTech sooner than 🇪🇺 did
Notably 🇬🇧 ordered 40m doses of BioNTech, and did not follow up that order until 28 April 2021 - an order for 60m more doses were placed - for delivery "in the autumn"

Meanwhile 🇪🇺, while perhaps slow off the mark, banked on BioNTech more heavily *and sooner than 🇬🇧 did for extra orders*

Extra deliveries were announced March 2021

And a massive order placed 19 April 2021
Then at the start of May 2021, 🇬🇧 followed what most 🇪🇺 countries had done already, and recommended to not use AZ for under-40s due to the rare risk of blood clots

Under 40s would be offered another vaccine

But what other vaccine?

BioNTech had been faster off the mark with its deliveries than AZ had in January and February 2021, and many doses were already in British arms

🇬🇧 has only ordered 17m doses of Moderna, and deliveries of that are slow. And J&J hasn't started
If you look at the latest Yellow Card reporting gov.uk/government/pub… you see 🇬🇧 now has reached the absolute limit of BioNTech for first doses - 20m doses administered
That then in turn explains the overall low numbers of first doses being administered now

@colinrtalbot reckons there are 3 million adult Brits still without a first dose - these people might be waiting a while

Data from here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…
That then also is a possible reason for 🇬🇧 being slow to begin to vaccinate kids - there is no supply of BioNTech to vaccinate them with

@TomChivers explores this more in this excellent piece, and advocates using AZ instead unherd.com/2021/07/give-a…
An alternative would of course be to get hold of some more BioNTech, and swiftly...

🇩🇪 by contrast has begun to vaccinate all 12-17 year olds - because it has enough BioNTech supply to be able to do so
For more about the 🇬🇧 situation also see the excellent tweets by Paul Mainwood, such as this thread:
Meanwhile two further vaccines - Valneva and Novavax - that received masses of press coverage in 🇬🇧 in spring (Novavax was "weeks away" in April, it's now July) are still nowhere to be seen

Background on what 🇬🇧 ordered here:
Thread FAO @mrjamesob and @johnkampfner

Thanks to @Semyaza666 for some of the background in the thread

Follow up 1

@BallouxFrancois makes some pretty hefty allegations that I’m alleging political bias in JCVI here. I’m not. I am making *no judgment* about JCVI at all. I am pointing out there’s a shortage of BioNTech
Follow up 2

@PaulMainwood says my point about mRNA shortage for adults is wrong. There’s enough Moderna to go around. I trust he’s right about this, but if reticence about vaccines is the reason there… then is that worse still?
Follow up 3

The tone of some of the responses to this thread is excessive. I *don’t know* what the answer is. More BioNTech? Change advice for AZ for kids? Do nothing? But there is a BioNTech supply problem
(Meanwhile @BallouxFrancois has replied and all is understood both sides now - thank you François)
Follow up 4

I’m told the thread alleges that JCVI has not OKed BioNTech for kids because there’s no supply. That wasn’t my intention at all. But what is clear is even if JCVI did OK it it couldn’t start as there isn’t any available.

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More from @jonworth

24 Jul
Motivated by tweets from @DavidHenigUK this morning, a challenge:

How could we establish a *fair* picture of where there are supermarket shortages in the UK?

Quick 🧵
David is right to say that it’s not all as catastrophic as some say, nor not a problem at all as some others do. It’s something in between.
Further as we’ve seen throughout Brexit, some firms cope better with disruption than others (think of EasyJet re-registering planes to Austria very swiftly, while British Airways dithered)

Some firms, maybe some regions, cope better?
Read 7 tweets
21 Jul
So the guys at @SmarketsPol asked me yesterday if I could make a kind of Brexit diagram for German government coalition options post-Bundestag election

I've not got a diagram together *yet*, but I have done some workings, and it's pretty interesting

#BTW21 🧵
Wikipedia's German polling page has a table called "Monatliche Mittelwerte" - basically an average of all the month's polls

I've taken these numbers, and used them for this work, and have made my own July-so-far calculation as well
The overall state of the polling is shown in this graph

CDU did v well through the main part of the pandemic, lost 10 points, and have recovered a bit. Greens back to trend. FDP now up a good bit
Read 19 tweets
20 Jul
OK, all previous tweets about UK COVID QR codes and 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇪 apps *deleted*, because this situation is so very messy... and I am going to try to set the record straight in this thread instead

This stuff is important, and understanding it is complex, so bear with me

This applies to people vaccinated by the NHS in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 only. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and Northern Ireland do not issue QR codes to those vaccinated, so this is not applicable to them

It applies to those people travelling 🇬🇧 to 🇪🇺 & 🇨🇭, and NOT to people travelling to 🇬🇧
Scan NHS 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 vaccination cert QR with:

🇩🇪 Corona-Warn-App
🤖 play.google.com/store/apps/det…
iOS apps.apple.com/de/app/corona-…

🇮🇪 COVID Tracker Ireland
🤖 play.google.com/store/apps/det…
iOS apps.apple.com/de/app/covid-t…

🇫🇷 TousAntiCovid
🤖 play.google.com/store/apps/det…
iOS apps.apple.com/us/app/tousant…

Read 13 tweets
20 Jul
All this mapping Eiffel Towers leads you to discover strange towers in strange places...

And Serbia 🇷🇸 has an Eiffel Tower strip, south east of Belgrade and north of Kragujevac

There are towers in:
Velika Plana

Why are there Eiffel Towers in this area of Serbia you might ask?

Because lots of people from there went to work in France, or had a connection to France, as this story of the Markovac tower builder explains 👇
"I worked in Paris in paris in the 1970s as a car mechanic. It wasn't so bad, but I didn't even like it too much. I returned home and made the Eiffel Tower as a memory" says Milutin Damjanović who built it
Read 9 tweets
19 Jul
OK, so I think I am done for now

2 more Eiffel Towers (in 🇳🇱, 🇦🇹) added to @Geoguessr map - so now 116 towers in 49 countries there 👇

But there are 75 towers I cannot find in Google Street View!

So 191 replicas total!

More detail in 🧵
All the details of the towers are in this blog post 👇

As well as the 116 towers I have been able to find, there are 75 more whether either the location is not known, or it is and there is nothing on Google Street View
In some places this is due to Street View being outdated, or towers having been built very recently

In other places it's because the tower cannot be seen from the road and there is no Google Photo Sphere close by
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul
So rail nerds @TrainTracksEU @Koelschlenny @vorortanleiter @AndyBTravels @seatsixtyone @AnnaDeparnay @PaliparanDotCom @LenaDonat - let's plan @AdinaValean and @MarianMarinescu a nice rail route Bruxelles-Bucharest arriving latest morning of 17 Sept un Bucuresti Nord!
Perfect! Here we go...

Just 2 changes (in Vienna and Budapest), and time for a coffee with @lgewessler @MartinSelmayr at Wien Hbf en route!

Trip time 35 hrs 58 mins...

Now how best to book that? 🤔
OK, so we can book Bruxelles Midi - Wien Hbf - Budapest Keleti with ÖBB, €219,80 in a single compartment in the NightJet and a regular seat in the RailJet for the last bit...
Read 16 tweets

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