Thread by @jonworth

🇬🇧 has a vaccine supply problem

It's important

A 🧵

Back in the winter and early spring, Johnson was crowing about how brilliant 🇬🇧 vaccine procurement rollout had been, and how - by comparison - 🇪🇺 was struggling

Now - in mid July - it is precisely the opposite

🇬🇧 bet on 8 vaccines in 2020 - AZ, BioNTech, Moderna, J&J, Valneva, Novavax, GSK-Sanofi and Curevac - and notably ordered and approved AZ and BioNTech sooner than 🇪🇺 did

Notably 🇬🇧 ordered 40m doses of BioNTech, and did not follow up that order until 28 April 2021 - an order for 60m more doses were placed - for delivery "in the autumn"

reuters.com/world/uk/brita…

Meanwhile 🇪🇺, while perhaps slow off the mark, banked on BioNTech more heavily *and sooner than 🇬🇧 did for extra orders*

Extra deliveries were announced March 2021
dw.com/en/covid-biont…

And a massive order placed 19 April 2021
politico.eu/article/eu-boo…

Then at the start of May 2021, 🇬🇧 followed what most 🇪🇺 countries had done already, and recommended to not use AZ for under-40s due to the rare risk of blood clots

Under 40s would be offered another vaccine
bbc.com/news/health-57…

🤔

But what other vaccine?

BioNTech had been faster off the mark with its deliveries than AZ had in January and February 2021, and many doses were already in British arms

🇬🇧 has only ordered 17m doses of Moderna, and deliveries of that are slow. And J&J hasn't started

If you look at the latest Yellow Card reporting gov.uk/government/pub… you see 🇬🇧 now has reached the absolute limit of BioNTech for first doses - 20m doses administered

That then in turn explains the overall low numbers of first doses being administered now

@colinrtalbot reckons there are 3 million adult Brits still without a first dose - these people might be waiting a while

Data from here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…

That then also is a possible reason for 🇬🇧 being slow to begin to vaccinate kids - there is no supply of BioNTech to vaccinate them with

@TomChivers explores this more in this excellent piece, and advocates using AZ instead unherd.com/2021/07/give-a…

An alternative would of course be to get hold of some more BioNTech, and swiftly...

🇩🇪 by contrast has begun to vaccinate all 12-17 year olds - because it has enough BioNTech supply to be able to do so
wa.de/nordrhein-west…

For more about the 🇬🇧 situation also see the excellent tweets by Paul Mainwood, such as this thread:

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1416705659949748225

Meanwhile two further vaccines - Valneva and Novavax - that received masses of press coverage in 🇬🇧 in spring (Novavax was "weeks away" in April, it's now July) are still nowhere to be seen

Background on what 🇬🇧 ordered here:
business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/…

Thread FAO @mrjamesob and @johnkampfner

Thanks to @Semyaza666 for some of the background in the thread

/ends

Follow up 1

@BallouxFrancois makes some pretty hefty allegations that I’m alleging political bias in JCVI here. I’m not. I am making *no judgment* about JCVI at all. I am pointing out there’s a shortage of BioNTech

Follow up 2

@PaulMainwood says my point about mRNA shortage for adults is wrong. There’s enough Moderna to go around. I trust he’s right about this, but if reticence about vaccines is the reason there… then is that worse still?

Follow up 3

The tone of some of the responses to this thread is excessive. I *don’t know* what the answer is. More BioNTech? Change advice for AZ for kids? Do nothing? But there is a BioNTech supply problem

(Meanwhile @BallouxFrancois has replied and all is understood both sides now - thank you François)

Follow up 4

I’m told the thread alleges that JCVI has not OKed BioNTech for kids because there’s no supply. That wasn’t my intention at all. But what is clear is even if JCVI did OK it it couldn’t start as there isn’t any available.