#NordStream2: After all, the US and Germany were expected to find a common language. The agreement between the two that is about to be published offers some ideas on how to make almost everyone happy, but not Ukraine. Here are some thoughts that on this issue: ⤵️
1) The US and Germany have their own strategic interests that they don't want to give up. Although Ukraine is not abandoned, its interests are not replacing the national interests of the US and Germany. That is the crude geopolitical reality that we have to take into account.⤵️
2) The agreement between the US & Germany speaks of billions of investments in the green economy, aimed at reducing Ukraine's largely inefficient energy sector. More efficiency would mean less dependence on the energy field. That makes sense, but the problem is not pure energy⤵️
3) One of Ukraine's main concerns concerns defense and the fact that NS2 will free Russia's hands to initiate a military incursion into / against Ukraine. The agreement between the US and Germany apparently does not touch on this aspect at all. It all has to do with energy.⤵️
4) Washington is openly talking about sanctioning NS2 after it goes live if Russia uses energy as political lever. But what if Russia really doesn't care about NS2 and increasing the EU/Germany's dependence on Russian gas? If the objective is to continue fulfilling gas⤵️
contracts with European companies, while pressure can be exerted on Ukraine until the transit gas pipeline is damaged (worst case scenario). 5) The US-Germany agreement should probably indicate the latest decision of the ECJ that limits the possibility of Gazprom monopolizing⤵️
the supply capacities of the OPAL gas pipeline that will connect NS2 with the rest of the gas system in the heart of Europe. However, no one knows what will happen and if the EU rules (ECJ’a decision) will continue to be uphold, if Ukraine cannot transit and the EU will need⤵️
gas that could pass through NS2. In short, there is a lot of uncertainty, but what is clear is that the US-Germany deal is mainly about energy, not about conventional security issues that for objective reasons preoccupy Ukraine.

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More from @DionisCenusa

22 Jul
#NordStream2: The US-Germany agreement was signed. Here is my take on it: 1) The agreement is a compilation of aspects ranging from insecurities related to Russia to the general climate crisis and energy modernization of Ukraine. 2) From the beginning, it is obvious that both⤵️
the US and Germany want to reassure Ukraine by adding all the security concerns regarding Russia (Russian aggression, evil influence, Minsk Agreements, Normandy format). 3) However, the conventional security problems related to Russia seem slightly disconnected from the energy⤵️
aspects that remain in the agreement. 4) The disconnect is felt with the paragraph on joint efforts between the US and Germany to combat climate change. It separates the paragraph on Russia and the conventional insecurities and energy threats related to Russia.⤵️
Read 15 tweets
21 Jul
#Azerbaijan: President Aliyev visited Russia, where he thanked Putin for two important issues. First, he highlighted Putin's personal involvement that led to the stabilization of the situation in the Karabakh region. Second, Aliyev welcomed the 200k supply of Sputnik V⤵️
However, the Azerbaijani leader slipped a few words about pending vaccine deliveries. Aliyev has reiterated that amid the queue for Sputnik V requests, Russia should keep Azerbaijan at the forefront, given the friendly relations. Aliyev interesting comments about the tens of⤵️
thousands of Azerbaijani students studying in Russia or in Russian universities in Azerbaijan. It’s important to recall that before this visit to Moscow, Aliyev met with the European Council Charles Michel in Baku. Aliyev did not thank the EU for anything particular. Instead,⤵️
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul
#Georgia: No one has yet taken any political responsibility for the violence unleashed by the radicals on July 5. Here I sum up some thoughts: 1) PM Garibashvili stated at the Batumi conference that Georgia is fully implementing the Association Agreement with the EU.⤵️
2) Furthermore, he said that EU-Georgia relations are at an all-time high. Neither statement is accurate/correct. First of all, respect for human rights is enshrined in the Agreement with the EU.⤵️
The lack of prevention of violence against journalists and human rights activities show that the ruling party in Georgia cannot and does not really want to comply with the Association Agreement. 3) And secondly, the EU had to intervene diplomatically to resolve internal⤵️
Read 8 tweets
19 Jul
#AssociatedTrio: The presidents of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed the first declaration of the heads of the countries of the “Associated Trio”. Charles Michel proudly watched the three sign the declaration that reiterated European integration as a strategic objective.
What is important to underline from the statements by Zurabishvili, Sandu, Zelensky and Michel is the following: 1) Zurabishvili said that there is no alternative to European integration and that this goal is what unites Georgian politicians, regardless of polarization. ⤵️
2) Sandu recalled the disappointment suffered by the EU after the unfolding of the political crises caused by bank frauds. She stressed that Moldova was captured by an oligarchic regime, something that the Georgian opposition recalled about Ivanishvili. ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
11 Jul
#MoldovaVote2021: This thread will cover today's snap elections. In short, there are 23 electoral competitors. The electoral authorities have cast ~ 3.2 million votes, of which ~ 750,000 votes were sent abroad for the diaspora (150 voting sections). Let us begin: ⤵️
1) So far, 10% or approx 285,000 voters have cast their votes. As always, the elderly population is an early riser and voted in greater numbers. 👇
2) Voters in Germany and Italy, where there is a high concentration of Moldovan and diaspora immigrants, line up to vote.
Read 34 tweets
9 Jul
#Russia_Belarus: Lukashenko does not use illegal migration just to punish Lithuania for hosting rival Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya and promoting sanctions. The Russian MFA through Zakharova's voice was quite suggestive about what Lukashenko is looking for. Here are some takeaways⤵️
from what he says today: 1) She tried to deflect the attention from Belarus by using a red herring technique and accusing the EU/West of causing the migration waves from North Africa and the Middle East in the first place; 2) Zakharova instilled some thoughts that clearly show⤵️
that the EU should not expect Belarus to be as cooperative as in the past after sanctions were unleashed against it; 3) The advice she gave to the EU and Lithuania is to start the official dialogue with Minsk. That would imply a certain degree of recognition of Lukashenko and⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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