#NordStream2: After all, the US and Germany were expected to find a common language. The agreement between the two that is about to be published offers some ideas on how to make almost everyone happy, but not Ukraine. Here are some thoughts that on this issue: ⤵️
1) The US and Germany have their own strategic interests that they don't want to give up. Although Ukraine is not abandoned, its interests are not replacing the national interests of the US and Germany. That is the crude geopolitical reality that we have to take into account.⤵️
2) The agreement between the US & Germany speaks of billions of investments in the green economy, aimed at reducing Ukraine's largely inefficient energy sector. More efficiency would mean less dependence on the energy field. That makes sense, but the problem is not pure energy⤵️
3) One of Ukraine's main concerns concerns defense and the fact that NS2 will free Russia's hands to initiate a military incursion into / against Ukraine. The agreement between the US and Germany apparently does not touch on this aspect at all. It all has to do with energy.⤵️
4) Washington is openly talking about sanctioning NS2 after it goes live if Russia uses energy as political lever. But what if Russia really doesn't care about NS2 and increasing the EU/Germany's dependence on Russian gas? If the objective is to continue fulfilling gas⤵️
contracts with European companies, while pressure can be exerted on Ukraine until the transit gas pipeline is damaged (worst case scenario). 5) The US-Germany agreement should probably indicate the latest decision of the ECJ that limits the possibility of Gazprom monopolizing⤵️
the supply capacities of the OPAL gas pipeline that will connect NS2 with the rest of the gas system in the heart of Europe. However, no one knows what will happen and if the EU rules (ECJ’a decision) will continue to be uphold, if Ukraine cannot transit and the EU will need⤵️
gas that could pass through NS2. In short, there is a lot of uncertainty, but what is clear is that the US-Germany deal is mainly about energy, not about conventional security issues that for objective reasons preoccupy Ukraine.
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