#NordStream2: The US-Germany agreement was signed. Here is my take on it: 1) The agreement is a compilation of aspects ranging from insecurities related to Russia to the general climate crisis and energy modernization of Ukraine. 2) From the beginning, it is obvious that both⤵️
the US and Germany want to reassure Ukraine by adding all the security concerns regarding Russia (Russian aggression, evil influence, Minsk Agreements, Normandy format). 3) However, the conventional security problems related to Russia seem slightly disconnected from the energy⤵️
aspects that remain in the agreement. 4) The disconnect is felt with the paragraph on joint efforts between the US and Germany to combat climate change. It separates the paragraph on Russia and the conventional insecurities and energy threats related to Russia.⤵️
5) Interestingly, the agreement between the US and Germany includes obligations for the EU that were not expected in this deal. The agreement consists of using the High Level Dialogue between the US and the EU on Russia to develop tools and mechanisms to "respond" to eventual⤵️
Russian aggressions, including in the field of energy. 6) Germany agrees to apply sanctions to limit the export of gas from Russia. But this will happen only if Russia uses energy for political purposes. This shows a clear separation of energy from other types of aggression⤵️
perceived by the United States and Germany. 7) Another guarantee against Russian influence on energy mentioned in the agreement is the implementation of the Third Energy Package and the "separation principle". Germany stresses that it will "abide" by both the "letter and ⤵️
spirit" of the EU energy acquis when implementing NS2, including operator certification and taking into account German jurisdiction (not just the supremacy of EU law). 8) Germany also undertakes to facilitate the negotiation of the extension of the transit contract between⤵️
Ukraine and Russia after 2024 for another 10 years (until 2034). 9) Next, the agreement between the US and Germany focuses again on bilateral commitments to implement the Paris Agreement, announcing the launch of the bilateral Climate and Energy Partnership. ⤵️
Within the framework of this Partnership is included the agreement to support Ukraine and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the energy transition, which should reduce the demand for Russian energy. 10) In the same vein, Germany is committed to establishing a⤵️
$ 1 billion Green Fund for Ukraine alone. This Fund will support renewable energy, hydrogen development, efficiency, carbon neutrality. The US will support it with technical and political assistance. 11) Particular attention will be paid to developing reverse capacities for gas⤵️
supply to Ukraine to fully "protect" it from Russian energy punishments. Apart from that, Germany and the US plan to help Ukraine join the European electricity grid, develop cyber capabilities in the field of energy and modernize the transmission system. 12) The US-Germany deal⤵️
envisages helping the Three Seas Initiative and the general connectivity of Central and Eastern European countries. 13) Although the US-Germany agreement does not and cannot avoid all the possible negative scenarios that Russia could put into practice it is one of the most ⤵️
abundant offers that the US and Germany could have made to Ukraine. The agreement strikes me as a "Marshal Plan" for Ukraine's energy sector, allowing Kyiv to save billions for its energy transition and energy security as a whole.⤵️
While Ukraine may surely not be fully satisfied, President Zelensky will accept the deal as there is nothing more that the US and Germany can add. END
The US-Germany agreement is available here: auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/ne…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DionisCenusa

21 Jul
#NordStream2: After all, the US and Germany were expected to find a common language. The agreement between the two that is about to be published offers some ideas on how to make almost everyone happy, but not Ukraine. Here are some thoughts that on this issue: ⤵️
1) The US and Germany have their own strategic interests that they don't want to give up. Although Ukraine is not abandoned, its interests are not replacing the national interests of the US and Germany. That is the crude geopolitical reality that we have to take into account.⤵️
2) The agreement between the US & Germany speaks of billions of investments in the green economy, aimed at reducing Ukraine's largely inefficient energy sector. More efficiency would mean less dependence on the energy field. That makes sense, but the problem is not pure energy⤵️
Read 8 tweets
21 Jul
#Azerbaijan: President Aliyev visited Russia, where he thanked Putin for two important issues. First, he highlighted Putin's personal involvement that led to the stabilization of the situation in the Karabakh region. Second, Aliyev welcomed the 200k supply of Sputnik V⤵️
However, the Azerbaijani leader slipped a few words about pending vaccine deliveries. Aliyev has reiterated that amid the queue for Sputnik V requests, Russia should keep Azerbaijan at the forefront, given the friendly relations. Aliyev interesting comments about the tens of⤵️
thousands of Azerbaijani students studying in Russia or in Russian universities in Azerbaijan. It’s important to recall that before this visit to Moscow, Aliyev met with the European Council Charles Michel in Baku. Aliyev did not thank the EU for anything particular. Instead,⤵️
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul
#Georgia: No one has yet taken any political responsibility for the violence unleashed by the radicals on July 5. Here I sum up some thoughts: 1) PM Garibashvili stated at the Batumi conference that Georgia is fully implementing the Association Agreement with the EU.⤵️
2) Furthermore, he said that EU-Georgia relations are at an all-time high. Neither statement is accurate/correct. First of all, respect for human rights is enshrined in the Agreement with the EU.⤵️
The lack of prevention of violence against journalists and human rights activities show that the ruling party in Georgia cannot and does not really want to comply with the Association Agreement. 3) And secondly, the EU had to intervene diplomatically to resolve internal⤵️
Read 8 tweets
19 Jul
#AssociatedTrio: The presidents of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed the first declaration of the heads of the countries of the “Associated Trio”. Charles Michel proudly watched the three sign the declaration that reiterated European integration as a strategic objective.
What is important to underline from the statements by Zurabishvili, Sandu, Zelensky and Michel is the following: 1) Zurabishvili said that there is no alternative to European integration and that this goal is what unites Georgian politicians, regardless of polarization. ⤵️
2) Sandu recalled the disappointment suffered by the EU after the unfolding of the political crises caused by bank frauds. She stressed that Moldova was captured by an oligarchic regime, something that the Georgian opposition recalled about Ivanishvili. ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
11 Jul
#MoldovaVote2021: This thread will cover today's snap elections. In short, there are 23 electoral competitors. The electoral authorities have cast ~ 3.2 million votes, of which ~ 750,000 votes were sent abroad for the diaspora (150 voting sections). Let us begin: ⤵️
1) So far, 10% or approx 285,000 voters have cast their votes. As always, the elderly population is an early riser and voted in greater numbers. 👇
2) Voters in Germany and Italy, where there is a high concentration of Moldovan and diaspora immigrants, line up to vote.
Read 34 tweets
9 Jul
#Russia_Belarus: Lukashenko does not use illegal migration just to punish Lithuania for hosting rival Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya and promoting sanctions. The Russian MFA through Zakharova's voice was quite suggestive about what Lukashenko is looking for. Here are some takeaways⤵️
from what he says today: 1) She tried to deflect the attention from Belarus by using a red herring technique and accusing the EU/West of causing the migration waves from North Africa and the Middle East in the first place; 2) Zakharova instilled some thoughts that clearly show⤵️
that the EU should not expect Belarus to be as cooperative as in the past after sanctions were unleashed against it; 3) The advice she gave to the EU and Lithuania is to start the official dialogue with Minsk. That would imply a certain degree of recognition of Lukashenko and⤵️
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!