Thread by @DionisCenusa

#NordStream2: The US-Germany agreement was signed. Here is my take on it: 1) The agreement is a compilation of aspects ranging from insecurities related to Russia to the general climate crisis and energy modernization of Ukraine. 2) From the beginning, it is obvious that both⤵️

the US and Germany want to reassure Ukraine by adding all the security concerns regarding Russia (Russian aggression, evil influence, Minsk Agreements, Normandy format). 3) However, the conventional security problems related to Russia seem slightly disconnected from the energy⤵️

aspects that remain in the agreement. 4) The disconnect is felt with the paragraph on joint efforts between the US and Germany to combat climate change. It separates the paragraph on Russia and the conventional insecurities and energy threats related to Russia.⤵️

5) Interestingly, the agreement between the US and Germany includes obligations for the EU that were not expected in this deal. The agreement consists of using the High Level Dialogue between the US and the EU on Russia to develop tools and mechanisms to "respond" to eventual⤵️

Russian aggressions, including in the field of energy. 6) Germany agrees to apply sanctions to limit the export of gas from Russia. But this will happen only if Russia uses energy for political purposes. This shows a clear separation of energy from other types of aggression⤵️

perceived by the United States and Germany. 7) Another guarantee against Russian influence on energy mentioned in the agreement is the implementation of the Third Energy Package and the "separation principle". Germany stresses that it will "abide" by both the "letter and ⤵️

spirit" of the EU energy acquis when implementing NS2, including operator certification and taking into account German jurisdiction (not just the supremacy of EU law). 8) Germany also undertakes to facilitate the negotiation of the extension of the transit contract between⤵️

Ukraine and Russia after 2024 for another 10 years (until 2034). 9) Next, the agreement between the US and Germany focuses again on bilateral commitments to implement the Paris Agreement, announcing the launch of the bilateral Climate and Energy Partnership. ⤵️

Within the framework of this Partnership is included the agreement to support Ukraine and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the energy transition, which should reduce the demand for Russian energy. 10) In the same vein, Germany is committed to establishing a⤵️

$ 1 billion Green Fund for Ukraine alone. This Fund will support renewable energy, hydrogen development, efficiency, carbon neutrality. The US will support it with technical and political assistance. 11) Particular attention will be paid to developing reverse capacities for gas⤵️

supply to Ukraine to fully "protect" it from Russian energy punishments. Apart from that, Germany and the US plan to help Ukraine join the European electricity grid, develop cyber capabilities in the field of energy and modernize the transmission system. 12) The US-Germany deal⤵️

envisages helping the Three Seas Initiative and the general connectivity of Central and Eastern European countries. 13) Although the US-Germany agreement does not and cannot avoid all the possible negative scenarios that Russia could put into practice it is one of the most ⤵️

abundant offers that the US and Germany could have made to Ukraine. The agreement strikes me as a "Marshal Plan" for Ukraine's energy sector, allowing Kyiv to save billions for its energy transition and energy security as a whole.⤵️

While Ukraine may surely not be fully satisfied, President Zelensky will accept the deal as there is nothing more that the US and Germany can add. END

The US-Germany agreement is available here: auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/ne…