A few thoughts on the UK's proposals to sort out the problems with the Northern Ireland protocol. First, some of what it says is reasonable: the partially applied protocol is causing real economic, social and political disruption; /1 @CER_EU
there is no inherent reason why goods going from GB to NI that will never go into Ireland should be checked by the EU - so long as a strong policing system prevents cheating; nor is there a reason why goods circulating in NI (that won't go south) shd comply with EU standards. /2
But second, the problem with these UK ideas is that they require the EU to trust it, eg to police the single mkt & the customs union on the EU's behalf. And asking the EU to rewrite a deal that the UK signed less than 2 years ago will require large amounts of goodwill. /3
Yet the UK's conduct over the past 2 years has done much to erode trust and goodwill towards it. Johnson and his ministers repeatedly said the protocol would not require checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea, which was untrue. They have failed to admit they are at least.../4
partly responsible for negotiating a bum deal. Their unilateral behaviour on eg the internal market bill and the extension of protocol grace periods has lost them friends. And more generally, the biggest complaint one hears in EU capitals about the Brits is their tone. /5
The tone is relentlessly hostile to the EU, always trying to score points against it. Member-state governments assume the constant knocking of the EU is done for domestic political advantage. If the Brits want to achieve some of their objectives they will need to change... /6
the way they talk about Europe. Third, the UK's plan to exclude the European Court of Justice from governance of the NI protocol will get nowhere. A major change to the governance would require a substantial rewrite of the protocol, which the EU could not accept. /7
Fourth, the EU will oppose the UK demands, with the Commission and France taking a particularly hard line. But there are voices, for example in Berlin and Stockholm, which will argue for some of the UK's thinking to be treated with respect. /8
Fifth, a sensible compromise would involve the UK accepting that it cannot change the governance of the protocol (or its wording to a significant degree); and the EU cutting many of the checks on goods going from GB to NI that will not travel south. /9
But to achieve such a compromise the UK would have to work hard to rebuild levels of trust and goodwill that are currently at low levels. And the EU would need to realise that there are real problems with the application of the protocol in NI, that need solving. /ENDS
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