Thread by @TomWlost

The main damage from this is deal lies somewhere else & I'm not sure Americans realize it.

In having to make tough choices, US ultimately decided to side w/ Germany, throwing CEE under the bus. From US short-term perspective that choice may have been obvious. 1/n

https://twitter.com/RobbieGramer/status/1418657195990847496

But it will have DESTRUCTIVE implications in CEE foreign policy. These countries always looked to America as a beacon of hope. A trustworthy ally. Guarantor of security. All these countries have been betrayed in the past. But not by America. America was reliable. 2/n

There are ongoing discussions in CEE. Should we really by so US oriented? Hasn't Trump shown us that one stupid election can change everything? Maybe we should actually reassess the relationship with Russia? Or bet on China, the 3rd power? 3/n

Yet the populations of many of CEE countries were still with America. America was reliable. America understood Russia and Europe. They would not let us down. 4/n

All this happening while Ukraine is literally being eaten alive. Step by step. Crimea. Donbas. Russian mobilization along the borders. What does the West do? Germany? France? UK? US? Not much. Not much. 5/n

Multiple analyses show NATO presence on the Eastern flank is insufficient to defend against a surprise Russian attack on the Balkans. Is NATO art. 5 guarantee solid? If it is, why don't we have sufficient NATO presence to make it clear an attack has no chances of success? 6/n

So this Nord Stream 2 deal comes with massive, massive baggage. CEE are skeptical about UE. About France. 75 years after the war, sadly, mistrust of Germany runs deep in this part of Europe. But America understands this, right? America is solid, right? 7/n

Anything even broadly connected to a German - Russian deal, behind the backs of CEE, has massive, tremendously painful implications. Poland, others disappeared from the map for almost two centuries when these two made deals. 8/n

Ribbentrop & Molotov pact started World War 2, ushering the period of completely unfathomable destruction. These countries got razed by Germany & Russia first, then by Germany, lastly by Russia again. Nothing was left when these two were done with us. 9/n

So back to NS2. German-Russian deal made behind our back, opposed by most of the region. No big deal, just a bunch of pipes, gas. No biggie, surely. WRONG. Massive symbolism, massive negative, historical, war connotations. 10/n

It is perhaps sad & deplorable, but can't escape history & symbolism. Not in this part of Europe where symbols carried us forward & gave us hope when that was all that we had. Symbols, analogies, connotations, suspicions and conspiracies: it's the fuel this region runs on. 11/n

But America was above all this. America was solid. They understood and faced off the Russians, the beat the Germans, they were solid. They knew our insecurities and watched our backs. They would never let us down. Not vs. Germany, not vs. Russians. 12/n

I'm sure Americans are thinking: Give me a break. Don't exaggerate. Its a stupid pipeline. Plenty of them around the world, each country has bunch of them. One bunch of pipes wont affect much. 13/n

Wrong again. It's not abt the pipes. It's abt US showing us Germany is more important to them. Even if our fears and concerns are overblown, America should have understood that. 14/n

We've this silly belief we have a special place in American hearts. Nonsense, but ppl in PL believe this, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

Selling us down the river, to improve relationship with - of all countries - Germany, will be seen as massive betrayal.15/n

That NS2 is btw the two states that wreaked the most damage in CEE, that the deal cannot be explained in any other way than egoistic industrial interests of Germany, that the cash paid for gas will found RU forces occupying Ukraine, makes US decision even harder to fathom. 16/n

To make it clear: I understand what drove Biden's decision. But US interests in CEE have suffered an immeasurable damage. 17/n

Russian trolls, Russian propaganda will surely use this to cast more doubt about US commitment to the region. Pro-Russian parties will get a boost. Politics of the region will change, and this is the decision that will have made that happen. 18/18

Case on point: 👇