Thread by @andrewflood

Todays #Covid19Ireland Precarious Exit plot confirming my senses yesterday that with the rate of case growth slowing we would return to NPHET worst case curve, a big improvement on last week. Todays 1126 cases, added as green dot, are in fact just 96% of last Sundays /1

The older Cautious Reopening plot reveals on left just how badly Delta wrecked hopes of earlier escape from the pandemic. And today hospital cases has risen to what had been expected but moving in the wrong direction
123 Hospital is 135% last Sunday
22 ICU is same as last Sun /2

New hospital cases remain linked to case increases when you allow for a 6 day lag & ICU admissions remain linked to the hospital cases with 3 more days lagged. But at a lower proportion than before, 2% rather than 5% /3

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1419257224266932224?s=20

Last week we saw case growth rates of 200% which if continued would have had us in crisis 2 weeks from now, todays the 8605 cases this week are down to 128% last week. Using the current hospitalisation & ICU rate we can update the outcomes table - crisis is now months out /4

In particular with tomorrows high risk opening of indoor hospitality the recent return towards stability may not last. The north is moving back into crisis including a significant rise in deaths /5

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1419288659392712705?s=20

Vaccination is the route out of the pandemic with 11 people getting a 1st dose today for every new infection. Vaccine hesitancy is now the most likely thing to impose future lockdowns on us but there are still plenty wanting to be vaxxed ASAP /6

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1418982956031414274?s=20

The north opened indoors at 89 doses per 100 pop & weeks of rapid case growth followed, we are doing so in a more restricted way at 112 per 100 pop but at a case level 3 times there's at opening
1st: 3,132,369 (+13,057) 63.9% (16+ 80%)
Full:2,575,696 (+15,412) 52.5% (16+ 66%)
/7

Cases for just the last 3 days showed no growth over the same days last week. If cases stayed at that 0 growth level there would be 172 hospital admissions a week & 15 people going to ICU from those. But periods of 0 growth don't last long /8

Latest north south comparison - both appeared to plateau but cases took off again in the north today

https://twitter.com/auto_plot/status/1419386717677760516