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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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27 Jul, 10 tweets, 4 min read
As I'd hoped todays 1120 cases which are 101% of last Tuesday's get us back inside the NPHET pessimistic & C2 plots. A once off football / post leaving cert surge rather than a trend made things looks very grim, now cases are elevated but which track we are on is still open /1
The rise on the left of hospitalisations & ICU shows we are paying a price for that surge - and one which will continue unless & until cases start to decrease or full adult vaccination is reached
142 hospital, 160% last Tuesday
27 ICU, 129% “
/2
Currently 2% of cases are being hospitalised 6 days later & 15% of hospital cases are in ICU 3 days later/ Completing adult vaccination is all that is likely to cut those percentages substantially as those are near the rates for young unvaccinated /3
Plugging the current weekly case growth rate, current 2.4% hospital & 15% ICU into the outcomes calculation gives us these cumulative totals, quite close but above NPHET C1 scenario in fact. But case growth could well improve, but be ready for case rise that happens ever Weds /4
I did a thread this morning on what might be behind last weeks surge to 200% growth - basically football & leaving cert /5
The north is seeing a similar slowing of the rate of case growth but unfortunately because they had 2.6 times as many cases per 100k population their hospitalisations & ICU is hitting a critical level undermining other healthcare /6
With news of the NIACC recommendation to offer vaccination to everyone over 12 the data from England becomes very important - it appears 0.4% of kids with Covid are being hospitalised there, both a small number but also a large one with 1 million kids /7
Our other priority has to be to reach the small percentage of unvaccinated in older age groups as that is still high enough to trigger a hospital crisis with rapid case growth /8
Most recently available cases by county is here. Interesting to see Dublin has started to fall close to the average at the 7 day per 100k rate /9
The All Ireland cases per 100k plot has the south clearly on a gently rising plateau whereas there is a lot of noise in the cases from the north

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
27 Jul
A 6% gender gap in the HPSC 14 day data points to a similar effect in Ireland - presumably men going to the mate with the biggest screens house to watch the matches. Adds hope that the recent slowing of the rate of case rise is real ft.com/content/cb86d9…
I’m also hopeful that we are seeing a hint of a population immunity threshold being reached as behaviors changed post Euros - in England opening nightclubs may well flip that back again with a case rise towards the end of this week but if anything that would confirm this
With a similar level of vaccination as the UK if lower level of survival immunity (as we have about 1/2 the deaths per 100k) that *might* make the recent opening sustainable within a couple of weeks more vaccination
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
26 Jul
Todays 1345 cases added to the Precarious Exit plot - they are 126% last Monday with the 8879 cases this weeks at 124% of the previous week. At that rate we might get back inside NPHETs pessimistic plot before impact of opening indoors hits /1 Image
Cautious Reopening plot has not left the top of the screen as I feared last Monday for cases but hospitalisation are now above expected level for 1st time and ICU getting close to that
141 hospital is 140% last Monday
25 ICU is 125% last Monday
/2 Image
The north saw a large drop in cases today but as the cost of the rise of cases last week a big weekend increase in hospital & ICU admissions. This is starting to overwhelm other healthcare as a result /3
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
26 Jul
I’d be pretty cynical about what Leo & the lobbyists are up to in choosing to suggest Covid isn’t so much of a threat as hospitalizations suggest on the day indoor hospitality opens. Average stay is 6 days & 10% are still ending up in ICU 3 days post hospitalization
Im tracking all the hospital related stats in this thread - it is complex & given this now being the weak sauce for conspiracy theorists better quality data direct from the HSE would be useful
Given the case surge of a week back it’s likely we are about to see a surge in hospital numbers this week - perhaps this downplaying exercise is the politicians seeking to get ahead of that news
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
25 Jul
Todays #Covid19Ireland Precarious Exit plot confirming my senses yesterday that with the rate of case growth slowing we would return to NPHET worst case curve, a big improvement on last week. Todays 1126 cases, added as green dot, are in fact just 96% of last Sundays /1 Image
The older Cautious Reopening plot reveals on left just how badly Delta wrecked hopes of earlier escape from the pandemic. And today hospital cases has risen to what had been expected but moving in the wrong direction
123 Hospital is 135% last Sunday
22 ICU is same as last Sun /2 Image
New hospital cases remain linked to case increases when you allow for a 6 day lag & ICU admissions remain linked to the hospital cases with 3 more days lagged. But at a lower proportion than before, 2% rather than 5% /3
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
16 Jul
Sigh - this was not how I hoped the #Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot would end but the last 3 case dots tell a story thats sadly unmistakable - adding as the final red dots
1183 cases is 187% of last Friday
79 hospital, 158% last Friday
23 ICU, 153% last Friday
/1
What happens next will be tracked on the Precarious Exit plot which has not improved since yesterday, indeed the 5306 cases this week being 151% of the previous week is. a lot worse, I'll show how much in the next 2 tweets /2
I've been tracking what percentage of cases end up in hospitals and what percentage of those go to ICU. As the force of infection increased these have got a lot worse, 2.5% cases hospitalised & almost 15% of those going to ICU when you account for lag effects. /3
Read 11 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
15 Jul
With almost 1000 cases a day it's clear the Cautious Reopening is now off the rails & in next tweet I have a new plot. But added today as red dots
994 cases, 186% last Thursday
80 hospital, 138% "
22 ICU, 129% "
/1
New plot using the NPHET scenarios to track what I'm calling the Precarious Exit. Cases added as bright green dot, you'll note we are already doing worse than the worst case NPHET presented yesterday. Next tweet I look at how much worse /2
We have had 4754 cases in week which is 140% last week- project forward at that rate to end September & we have 840k cases accumulate, 19k hospitalised at current rate of 2.3% cases
4294
6012
8416
11783
16496
23094
32332
45265
63370
88719
124206
173888
243444
/3
Read 9 tweets

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