Thread by @andrewflood

Todays 1345 cases added to the Precarious Exit plot - they are 126% last Monday with the 8879 cases this weeks at 124% of the previous week. At that rate we might get back inside NPHETs pessimistic plot before impact of opening indoors hits /1

Cautious Reopening plot has not left the top of the screen as I feared last Monday for cases but hospitalisation are now above expected level for 1st time and ICU getting close to that
141 hospital is 140% last Monday
25 ICU is 125% last Monday
/2

The north saw a large drop in cases today but as the cost of the rise of cases last week a big weekend increase in hospital & ICU admissions. This is starting to overwhelm other healthcare as a result /3

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1419649331242717184

We are about 1/3 cares per 100k but are also seeing a rise in hospitalisations and ICU following last weeks rise in cases /5

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1419619374210686978?s=20

Plugging the current stats into the outcomes calculator we get a very much less alarming picture than last Monday, however this is still a lot of people going to hospital and ICU in what are hopefully the last weeks of the pandemic. Todays opening risks that a lot worse /5

Spitballing - HIT plotted against R0 is not linear. Substitute in Rt shifting according to behaviour you can see that at high vaccination levels a small shift in behaviour (eg all around to a mates to watch the football) may enlarge HIT & vice versa /6

The above being a possible explanation along with other behaviour changes for the drop in cases in the north and England along with the way Scotlands dropped a week earlier

https://twitter.com/auto_plot/status/1419710127511375875?s=20