What is popular and sexy is often not very profitable (questionable whether you'll even break even?).

Glance over the statistics for start-up, angel & venture capital returns. You'll realize you might as well donate your capital to a charity — better use of it.
Short and brief, written 9 years ago but useful today just as it was in 2012.

techcrunch.com/2012/09/30/why…
Another oldie worth reading, since not much has changed.

An investment strategy that loses money broadly speaking, inability to outperform even an index fund, awful alignment of interest, long lock-up periods, with very high fees.

hbr.org/2014/08/ventur…
"Given the persistent poor performance of the industry, there are many VCs who haven’t received a carry check in a decade, or if they are newer to the industry, ever.

These VCs live entirely on the fee stream. Fees, it turns out, are the lifeblood of the VC industry..."
Watch what they do, not what they say.

"VCs don’t ask how much they can invest, but rather, how little. They seek a minimum, not a maximum.

When it comes time to put their own money where their mouth is, there’s a surprising lack of both interest & capital."

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More from @TihoBrkan

11 Jul
Not going to be popular with this tweet, but the truth needs to be stated.

Central banks are creating massive inequality problems with 1% of asset holders (including myself) benefiting at the expense of the whole society.

I'm not a fan of taxes at all, let alone high taxes...
...as history shows they stifle future potential economic growth.

However, history also shows massive inequality (eventually) results in breaking social fabric via revolutions & civil wars.

The few are benefiting over many with huge CEO compensations, low company tax rates...
...landlords & rent-seekers are not paying any taxes via special schemes (1031 & depreciation),

while many struggle to earn a minimum wage & cannot afford basic healthcare needs.

The system will never be in balance, but currently, it's completely one-sided with MASSIVE risks.
Read 5 tweets
24 Jun
What: litigation funding cases in the UK

Why: carefully selected & diversified portfolio of litigation cases can return 30%+ annually while being totally uncorrelated to traditional assets during a potential crash, plus Pound might rise vs $USD giving additional returns
Litigation funding is outperforming all other asset classes including private equity, real estate, private debt, hedge funds, and the stock index funds.

Yet it still remains very unsexy due to a high barrier of entry (expertise & know-how, large minimum ticket sizes, etc).
Additionally, the UK litigation cases are denominated in British Pounds — has recently broken out of its 13-year downtrend against the greenback.

We are hopeful the Pound might continue appreciating, gifting investors a double return (underlying ROI + exchange rate carry).
Read 5 tweets
24 Jun
1/ At the start, none of us know what we are doing. That is why in this business, it is important to execute in the right order.

At the start, your job should be to focus on learning about as many things as possible (a generalist) and to diversify your capital by spreading bets.
2/ As many years pass, your knowledge & experience will enable you to find an edge & sidestep pitfalls/traps in investing/business.

Finally, only now you're finally ready to become a specialist & start concentrating bets for maximum return.

Don't mix up the order, like so many.
3/ Tim Ferriss does a great job explaining why, in business and especially in investing, it is probably more important to be a generalist.

Jack of many trades, and mastering many of them — should be the new way of looking at it.

businessinsider.com/tim-ferriss-it…
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
A bit late with this one. RIP David Swensen.

Had an enormous influence on me, helping me to step outside of public securities "tunnel vision" many years ago and diversify with alternative assets.

The Yale model changed the way private money allocates.

ft.com/content/e43825…
Swensen's portfolio allocation weighting over the years.
"Mr. Swensen often blasted the excessive costs of the mutual-fund industry and the conflicts of interest on Wall Street. He bashed activist investors as value-destroying and asset-gathering managers as out for themselves."
Read 4 tweets
21 Jun
Technically, the Nasdaq 100 seems to have peaked in February of this year.

Sure, the index has managed marginal new highs even in recent days but seems to be losing momentum (bearish technical & breadth divergences).

$QQQ $NDX
Additionally, the economically sensitive semiconductor sector also peaked in February and has failed to make new highs since.

Worth watching closely. $SOXX
Another economically sensitive sector is Asia, especially emerging economies in this region.

A clear and decisive peak in February for the broad Asian equity index.

If the world is reopening, recovering & returning to above growth — why are global equities underperforming?
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
1/ At the top of the last real estate bubble,

we were told many US states (California, Nevada, Florida, etc) and various countries around the world (Spain, Ireland, etc) were suffering from property shortages.
2/ Once artificial demand pulled back as the downturn started, it turned out we never had any shortages at all.

Many were just buying their 3rd, 5th or 13th investment property by using excessive leverage.

I assume we will get a similar, or worse outcome in the next 5 years.
3/ Excessive leverage fuels booms like nothing else,

and it typically create enormous oversupply (mortal enemy of long term prices).

I can only imagine how much malinvestment we will have to deal with once the tide pulls back and we notice many are swimming without shorts.
Read 11 tweets

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