A hot-button issue has been “should CA Dems have picked a backup on the recall ballot?”

No. Newsom’s goal is to turn out Dem voters. Adding another D candidate splinters the vote and means some might vote Yes on recall and Yes to the replacement to get them into the office.
“Why not just have everyone coalesce around No and then have a backup just in case?”

Because that’s not how it works. Voters are messy, campaigns are messy, and there will be some defections from folks who are anti-Newsom and love the Dem alternative. You don’t want infighting.
The absolute last thing you want is a war on two fronts — you don’t need to fight your base and the opponents at the same time. “No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante” failed spectacularly in 2003 and led to the end of the careers of basically everyone involved.
In general, a good rule of thumb is that if something seems too simple and too good to be true, it probably is. Besides, given gaps in partisan support for Yes on recall…if Yes wins, the Dem won’t be winning.
"What about the first-past-the-post aspect of this election?"

Newsom is the boss of CA Dems. His goal is to preserve his governorship. His camp is likely not going to support a Dem backup if it doesn't help him win. And the other Dem camp would probably undercut Newsom a bit too
Essentially, here's the problem: any Dem good enough to coalesce the "No" vote around them on the second question (and some exist who can!) also probably inadvertently drives up the likelihood of recall succeeding because of factionalism. Newsom isn't going to approve that.

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More from @lxeagle17

23 Jul
Okay, a more detailed thread of thoughts on "is it possible to out-organize voter suppression"...the answer is that "it depends" on a lot of things, not least of which is "what do you mean by voter suppression?".
Does voter suppression include gerrymandering? You can argue for one way or another, but a goal in voter suppression is to explicitly and intentionally deny a group of people adequate representation, and gerrymandering does that pretty well.
Can you out-organize maps that give the GOP a built-in R+10 advantage during a neutral year? No. End of story. If I remember the literature correctly, organizing probably makes, at best, a difference of one or two points -- maybe less. Which is important! But not enough.
Read 8 tweets
17 Jul
Ignoring baseline partisanship and going solely by race and education-based splits, Democrats performed about 8% below expected in Florida in 2020.

The struggles with the Cuban community are well-documented, but they also perform *way* worse than expected among college whites. Image
I see the white retiree issue, but here's the thing: it's not just Democrats struggling with them; that's not the underperformance area that stands out to me. There's a persistent underperformance among college-educated whites that cuts against the state's demographic profile.
I don't think there's honestly much to instill confidence in me that we reverse this, but if they wanted to do it, there's a path, even if it's very hard. 60% of Floridans are pro-choice, 73% are pro-climate action. 67% are majorly pro-criminal justice reform.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
Given educational polarization, what if you tried to predict 2020 2-party margin based on nothing other than education split by race (white college, white non-college etc)?

You'd still get a pretty strong correlation. The resulting over/underperformance map is interesting to see
Some thoughts...

[1/] Secular/non-evangelical voters are ones that Democrats perform really well with, which obviously isn't captured with just educational data
[2/] An area's baseline partisanship plays a huge role in determining immediate margins, so I wouldn't take this as gospel or whatever (none of the "OMG Wisconsin's sliding 20 points right in 2022" dooming) -- just a fun experiment to see what'd happen if the trend continues
Read 6 tweets
26 Jun
I've reconstructed the 2014 and 2018 electorates by demographic, thanks to @DKElections and @Catalist_US data and a lot of math

-Midterms are whiter, more educated (~2pt Dem boost with whites on education-based turnout differential)
-Minority turnout is a crucial wildcard

[1/] Image
Midterms are generally whiter + more educated; whites are ~2% more favorable to Dems on educational splits alone. This was more pronounced in 2018 than it was in 2014. If R voters are increasingly tied to Trump ballot presence, it could complicate things for the GOP. [2/] Image
I calculate the electorate demographic composition for 2014/2018 myself and project 2020 support by demographic onto each electorate to get an idea of what its partisanship would be now. 2012/16/20 demographic composition & 2020 2-way support by demographic are from Catalist [3/]
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
THREAD: Simulating an RCV election in Alaska, we see that running a Democrat probably helps Kelly Tshibaka more than anything. But the value Lisa Murkowski provides to a Democratic majority is minimal, and the expected value of running a Democrat is still higher, IMO
Let’s construct a grossly simplified scenario where we have Tshibaka (R) at 40%, Galvin (D) at 30%, Murkowski (R) at 30%, and Murkowski loses the second spot by a hair to Alyse Galvin. Now you go to the H2H...
Does Galvin get 66% of Murkowski’s voters to back her as the second choice? Possible...but a tall order...so you’ve just given Tshibaka a huge boost here.

Conversely, would 66% of Galvin’s voters rank Murkowski as a second choice? That’s much easier to imagine.
Read 11 tweets
22 Jun
If the goal of the Democratic Party is to retain the majority in 2022, then funding or helping Lisa Murkowski makes absolutely no sense, because the value-over-replacement she provides to a Senate Democratic majority is minimal.
If Democrats think they've certainly lost the Senate in 2022, then helping to keep Murkowski might make a lot of sense.

If they think they've got a good chance to retain the Senate (as they do, given the map they're playing in), then keeping Murkowski provides no utility at all.
Any bill Murkowski goes for, all Democrats would have already supported, including Manchin. There is no use to a Democratic *majority* here, especially when you have a lane to elect Galvin, who'd be at the party median and cut the reliance on Manchin/Sinema by a fair bit.
Read 4 tweets

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