Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)
Finally, while there were a handful of precincts where the number of votes cast today was greater than the number of votes received by GOP candidates on May 1, those precincts weren't disproportionately Democratic. #TX06 (4/5)
Caveat: Anecdotal evidence suggests *some* #TX06 Democrats did vote Ellzey in protest. And in a close race, any small bloc of votes can matter. But there was no large-scale Democratic meddling here. (5/5)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Because of the pandemic, I’ve been buying Girl Scout cookies online, which means I’ve finally been able to try both the ABC Bakers and Little Brownie Bakers cookies. This thread will serve as a taste test.
1. The biggest difference: S’mores. Both good in their own way. If you like creamy chocolate, you want ABC, but I lean slightly toward the higher graham-cracker-to-chocolate ratio of LBB.
2. Thin Mints. Very similar taste, but Little Brownie (left) is flakier while ABC is denser. ABC wins this one.
White wards in SW St. Louis, like 16, 24, 23, and 10 cast the most votes per ballot (as many as 1.79).
Black wards on the north side, like 1, 27, 21, and 4, cast the fewest (1.34 votes per ballot or lower).
Cara Spencer, the white progressive alderwoman, won a spot in the runoff by doing well in white wards, both conservative working-class ones and liberal gentrifying ones. She got very little support on the Black north side. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Seems the point is to sabotage the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by preventing a popular vote calculation. Buuut unless the popular vote is super close, you'll still know who won it even without exact North Dakota results.
1. North Dakota is very small—only 565K eligible voters. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million.
2. If we know ND's percentages, you can apply those to even a rough turnout estimate and get a decent guess at the popular vote. Again, unless it's super close, you'll know.