Hello Thursday!

You avoided the 🐫 because JPOW skirted his mandate. #Inflation? πŸͺ› it. Let is run πŸ”₯

You know what to do.
Short USD. Long CRB & GOLD.

Let's dig into the morning data!
Asia bounced off oversold levels ↗️

$NIKK 27784 +0.7%
$SSEC 3412 +1.5%
$TWII 17403 +1.55%
$HSI 26244 +3.25%
$KOSPI 3243 +0.2%
$IDX 6121 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7417 +0.5%

India ↗️
$BSE 52698 +0.5%
Europe trading ↗️ with stronger Euro

$DAX 15601 +0.2%
$FTSE 7067 +0.7%
$CAC 6656 +0.7%
$AEX 753 +0.7%
$IBEX 8796 +0.7%
$MIB 25401 +0.55%
$SMI 12084 +0.1%
$MOEX 3800 +0.5%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ futures ↔️ with FB weighing on $NQ

$ES 4405 +0.1%
$NQ 15003 -0.1%
$RTY 2238 +0.6%

$VIX 17.82 πŸ”»
Gold and metals πŸš€
$GVZ 15.61

$GOLD 1820 +1.15%
$SILVER 25.567 +2.8%
$COPPER 4.525 +0.95%
$PLAT 1075 +1.65%
$PALL 2647 +0.95%
$ALI 2552 +1.1%
$ZINC 2992 +0.85%
πŸ›’οΈand ⛽️ trading ↗️
$OVX 34.62 πŸ”»

$WTIC 72.84 +0.6%
$BRENT 74.23 +0.5%
$GASO 2.29 +0.35%
$NATGAS 3.957 -0.25% << πŸ”»
Grains trading ↗️

$WHEAT 697 +1.15%
$CORN 550 +0.2%
$SOYB 1371 +0.7%
$SUGAR 18.66 unch
Powell failed to defend the reserve currency β†˜οΈ

$USD 92.062 -0.28%
$EUR 1.187 +0.25%
$GBP 1.395 +0.35%
$AUD .7399 +0.3%
$USDJPY 109.85 -0.05%
$USDCHF .9086 -0.15%
$USDCAD 1.2468 -0.5%
$USDRUB 73.171 -0.45% πŸͺ†
USTs are little changed ↔️ with 10/2s to 104.8 BPS
MOVE 62.40 -10.94% πŸ”»

2Y .215
5Y .738
10Y 1.263
30Y 1.911

Global 10Ys ↗️ across the 🌎
With the Fed call removed from the market, you are free to load up on risk assets. How else will you hold onto your purchasing power?

That $EEM short you were contemplating. Forget about it. Emerging markets can have all the USDs they want.

Have a super profitable πŸ’° Thursday!

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @tdarling1

28 Jul
Hello hump 🐫 day!

A little bit of mean reversion with the #FOMC decision due at 2PMEST is the perfect set up for the 🐫

Let's dig into the overnight data!
Asia ↔️ but mostly β†˜οΈ

$NIKK 27582 -1.4%
$SSEC 3362 -0.6%
$TWII 17135 -0.8%
$HSI 25421 +1.45% πŸ‡­πŸ‡°
$KOSPI 3237 +0.1%
$IDX 6089 -0.15%

Australia β†˜οΈ
7379 -0.7%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 52424 -0.3%
Europe ↗️ after a day that saw $AEX β†˜οΈ -1.0%

$DAX 15557 +0.25%
$FTSE 7013 +0.25%
$CAC 6576 +0.7%
$AEX 743 +0.7%
$IBEX 8747 +0.6%
$SMI 12064 +0.35%
$MOEX 3754 +0.55%
Read 10 tweets
27 Jul
Hello, Tuesday and a similar "πŸŸ₯ sky" start to the day

We all know what happened yesterday - traders #BTFD sending $BTC and $COPPER πŸš€ with the $USD β†˜οΈ

Repeat today? or is ⚠️ the word in the face of the πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³πŸ‡­πŸ‡° crash and the start to the #FOMC meeting?

Let's dig in!
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ and πŸ‡­πŸ‡° under significant β†˜οΈ pressure

$SSEC 3381 -2.5% πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
$HSI 25061 -4.4% πŸ‡­πŸ‡°
$NIKK 27970 +0.5%
$TWII 17270 -0.8%
$KOSPI 3233 +0.25%
$IDX 6097 -0.15%

Australia β†˜οΈ
$ASX 7431 +0.5%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 52534 -0.6%
Europe ↔️ yesterday but β†˜οΈ today πŸŸ₯

$DAX 15487 -0.85%
$FTSE 6966 -0.85%
$CAC 6537 -0.6%
$AEX 739 -0.8%
$IBEX 8707 -0.8%
$MIB 25092 -0.8%
$SMI 12003 -0.4%
$MOEX 3750 unch
Read 10 tweets
25 Jul
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021

1/16
Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna

Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues

t = 1-month, T = 3-months
2/16

Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s β†˜οΈ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But πŸ‘€ (t) + (T)

SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻 $COMPQ +2.84% and an ATH +5...
3/16

International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week

CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻 $CAC +1.68% for the week an...
Read 16 tweets
18 Jul
Weekly Macro Review July 18, 2021

1/12

β†˜οΈβ†—οΈβ†˜οΈβ†—οΈ
During phase transitions, old trends break and new ones form

The market machine is β€œconfused.” How could it not be with inflation ↗️ bond yields β†˜οΈ and the USD and GOLD ↗️?

Job#1 during this chop is capital preservation
2/12

The USD 92.69 +0.62% is back to ♉️ trade (t) and trend (T)

Both the EUR 1.181 -0.59% and AUD -1.26% are 🐻 and hanging onto critical technical support.

Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is +0.52% over (t) duration and +1.26% over (T) duration Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is +0.52% over (t) duration and +1.
2A/12

Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59% is trading at critical support.

A weekly close < 1.170 could take this β†˜οΈ to ~ 1.12 over the next 3-4 months. Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59% is trading at critical support.
Read 16 tweets
16 Jul
Made it to Friday relatively unscathed.

But that's only because of big πŸ’° position, puts, bonds, and $TAIL position.

Phase transitions are turbulent πŸ›©οΈ

Let's dig in!
Asia closed ↔️ on the week and β†˜οΈ today

$NIKK 28003 -1.0%
$SSEC 3539 -0.7%
$TWII 17895 -0.8%
$HSI 28082 +0.4%
$KOSPI 3277 -0.3%
$IDX 60073 +0.4%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7348 +0.2%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 53062 -0.2%
Bumpy week for Europe, β†˜οΈ one day ↗️ the next

$DAX 15675 +0.3%
$FTSE 7041 +0.4%
$CAC 6493 unch
$AEX 739 -0.1%
$IBEX 8576 +0.6%
$MIB 24949 +0.3%
$SMI 12026 +0.4%
$MOEX 3806 +0.15%
Read 11 tweets
13 Jun
Global Macro Week in Review

1/12

This past week was NOT a #quad2 week

Bonds and proxies outperformed with LQD +1.2%, TLT +1.72%, XLRE +1.97% and XLU +1.12% vs. SPY +0.4%

Meanwhile, HE’s four horsemen languished with XLB, XLF and XLI all losing positive 1-month price momentum
2/12

Equity volatility β†˜οΈ continued to drain from the market

$VIX 15.65 -4.69%
$VXN 19.16 -9.71%
$RVX 22.26 -2.45%
$VXEEM 17.88 -7.07%

⚠️ Opex ahead on 6/16
A supportive vol regime and a big decline in yields led to outsized performance in $COMPQ and $RUT

$RUT +1.89%
$COMPQ +1.85%
$CAC +1.3%
$SPX +0.41%
$KOSPI +0.29%
$NIKK +0.02% 🐻
$DAX unch
$HSI -0.26%
$SSEC -0.6%

$CAC still leads +9.16% over 3 months
Read 14 tweets

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