Hello, Friday and the last trading day of July!

Risk assets under pressure πŸŸ₯ this morning, but with JPOW support, it's been a good week to date:

COPPER +2.8%
GOLD +1.9%
WHEAT +3.1%
WTIC +2.15%
XLE +3.15%
XME +8.0%

Let's dig into the early morning data!
Asia closed β†˜οΈπŸŸ₯

$NIKK 27284 -1.8%
$SSEC 3397 -0.4%
$TWII 17247 -0.9%
$HSI 25908 -1.3%
$KOSPI 3202 -1.25%
$IDX 6070 -0.8%

Australia β†˜οΈ
$ASX 7393 -0.4%

India ↗️
$BSE 52813 +0.3% <<
Europe under pressure β†˜οΈ

$DAX 15514 -0.8%
$FTSE 7035 -0.6%
$CAC 6635 unch
$AEX 756 -0.3%
$IBEX 8741 -0.5%
$MIB 25486 -0.1%
$SMI 12071 -0.1%
$MOEX 3786 -0.5%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ futures πŸŸ₯β†˜οΈ with 'FA' messing with the Qs

$ES 4392 -0.6%
$NQ 14878 -1.1%
$RTY 2234 -0.3% (good job @RVburgh)

$VIX 18.82 πŸ”Ί
GOLD and metals ↔️
$GVZ 15.21 πŸ”»

$GOLD 1829 -0.1%
$SILVER 25.672 -0.4%
$COPPER 4.529 +0.1%
$PLAT 1054 -1.3%
$PALL 2654 +0.4%
$ALI 2624 +1.1%
$ZINC 3016 +0.5%

Good day ahead for $DBB
πŸ›’οΈand ⛽️ also trading β†˜οΈ
$OVX 33.36 πŸ”»

$WTIC 73.50 -0.1%
$BRENT 74.97 -0.2%
$GASO 2.32 -0.2%
$NATGAS 3.999 -1.5%
Grains also correcting β†˜οΈ

$WHEAT 705 +0.1%
$CORN 555 -0.3%
$SOYB 1376 -0.05%
$SUGAR 18.30 -0.05%
The USD is -1.15% on the week (thanks JPOW) and trading β†˜οΈ this morning

$USD 91.823 -0.05%
$EUR 1.19 +0.1%
$GBP 1.397 +0.1%
$AUD .7402 +0.1%
$USDJPY 109.52 +0.05%
$USDCHF .906 -0.05%
$USDCAD 1.243 -0.1%
$USDRUB 72.999 -0.2% πŸͺ†
UST yields coming in β†˜οΈ with 10/2s 105.1 BPS
MOVE 62.08 πŸ”»

2Y .196
5Y .71
10Y 1.247
30Y 1.903

Global 10Ys ↗️
So as we wind down the week, your πŸ’΅ and 'FA' are worth less, while your πŸͺ™πŸ›’οΈβ›½οΈπŸŒ½ are appreciating in value

With a healthy amount of $VIX chop, continuing to #BTFDs and #STDRs

Watching $XOM and $CVX earnings before the open

Have a super profitable πŸ’° day and a great weekend!

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

1 Aug
Global macro review

1/14

It’s a new month! 🐰 🐰

Let’s look back on July for positioning clues ahead

Notables:
$GLD ♉️
$TLT ♉️
$FXF ♉️
$CORN 🐻
$SILVER 🐻
$EEM 🐻
$DAX and $XLE teetering on 🐻
2/14

The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%

2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%

Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over $TNX peaked in March at 1.7...
3/14

Bond ETFs ↗️ with curve flattening

$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%

Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07% Convertibles bucked the tre...
Read 16 tweets
29 Jul
Hello Thursday!

You avoided the 🐫 because JPOW skirted his mandate. #Inflation? πŸͺ› it. Let is run πŸ”₯

You know what to do.
Short USD. Long CRB & GOLD.

Let's dig into the morning data!
Asia bounced off oversold levels ↗️

$NIKK 27784 +0.7%
$SSEC 3412 +1.5%
$TWII 17403 +1.55%
$HSI 26244 +3.25%
$KOSPI 3243 +0.2%
$IDX 6121 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7417 +0.5%

India ↗️
$BSE 52698 +0.5%
Europe trading ↗️ with stronger Euro

$DAX 15601 +0.2%
$FTSE 7067 +0.7%
$CAC 6656 +0.7%
$AEX 753 +0.7%
$IBEX 8796 +0.7%
$MIB 25401 +0.55%
$SMI 12084 +0.1%
$MOEX 3800 +0.5%
Read 10 tweets
28 Jul
Hello hump 🐫 day!

A little bit of mean reversion with the #FOMC decision due at 2PMEST is the perfect set up for the 🐫

Let's dig into the overnight data!
Asia ↔️ but mostly β†˜οΈ

$NIKK 27582 -1.4%
$SSEC 3362 -0.6%
$TWII 17135 -0.8%
$HSI 25421 +1.45% πŸ‡­πŸ‡°
$KOSPI 3237 +0.1%
$IDX 6089 -0.15%

Australia β†˜οΈ
7379 -0.7%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 52424 -0.3%
Europe ↗️ after a day that saw $AEX β†˜οΈ -1.0%

$DAX 15557 +0.25%
$FTSE 7013 +0.25%
$CAC 6576 +0.7%
$AEX 743 +0.7%
$IBEX 8747 +0.6%
$SMI 12064 +0.35%
$MOEX 3754 +0.55%
Read 10 tweets
27 Jul
Hello, Tuesday and a similar "πŸŸ₯ sky" start to the day

We all know what happened yesterday - traders #BTFD sending $BTC and $COPPER πŸš€ with the $USD β†˜οΈ

Repeat today? or is ⚠️ the word in the face of the πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³πŸ‡­πŸ‡° crash and the start to the #FOMC meeting?

Let's dig in!
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ and πŸ‡­πŸ‡° under significant β†˜οΈ pressure

$SSEC 3381 -2.5% πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
$HSI 25061 -4.4% πŸ‡­πŸ‡°
$NIKK 27970 +0.5%
$TWII 17270 -0.8%
$KOSPI 3233 +0.25%
$IDX 6097 -0.15%

Australia β†˜οΈ
$ASX 7431 +0.5%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 52534 -0.6%
Europe ↔️ yesterday but β†˜οΈ today πŸŸ₯

$DAX 15487 -0.85%
$FTSE 6966 -0.85%
$CAC 6537 -0.6%
$AEX 739 -0.8%
$IBEX 8707 -0.8%
$MIB 25092 -0.8%
$SMI 12003 -0.4%
$MOEX 3750 unch
Read 10 tweets
25 Jul
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021

1/16
Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna

Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues

t = 1-month, T = 3-months
2/16

Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s β†˜οΈ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But πŸ‘€ (t) + (T)

SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻 $COMPQ +2.84% and an ATH +5...
3/16

International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week

CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻 $CAC +1.68% for the week an...
Read 16 tweets
18 Jul
Weekly Macro Review July 18, 2021

1/12

β†˜οΈβ†—οΈβ†˜οΈβ†—οΈ
During phase transitions, old trends break and new ones form

The market machine is β€œconfused.” How could it not be with inflation ↗️ bond yields β†˜οΈ and the USD and GOLD ↗️?

Job#1 during this chop is capital preservation
2/12

The USD 92.69 +0.62% is back to ♉️ trade (t) and trend (T)

Both the EUR 1.181 -0.59% and AUD -1.26% are 🐻 and hanging onto critical technical support.

Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is +0.52% over (t) duration and +1.26% over (T) duration Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is +0.52% over (t) duration and +1.
2A/12

Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59% is trading at critical support.

A weekly close < 1.170 could take this β†˜οΈ to ~ 1.12 over the next 3-4 months. Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59% is trading at critical support.
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(