Global macro review
1/14
Itβs a new month! π° π°
Letβs look back on July for positioning clues ahead
Notables:
$GLD βοΈ
$TLT βοΈ
$FXF βοΈ
$CORN π»
$SILVER π»
$EEM π»
$DAX and $XLE teetering on π»
1/14
Itβs a new month! π° π°
Letβs look back on July for positioning clues ahead
Notables:
$GLD βοΈ
$TLT βοΈ
$FXF βοΈ
$CORN π»
$SILVER π»
$EEM π»
$DAX and $XLE teetering on π»
2/14
The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%
2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%
Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over
The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%
2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%
Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over
3/14
Bond ETFs βοΈ with curve flattening
$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%
Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%
Bond ETFs βοΈ with curve flattening
$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%
Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%
4/14
Equity volatility βοΈ
$VXEEM 25.96 +37.94%
$RVX 25.79 +15.7%
$VIX 18.24 +15.22%
$VXN 20.81 +3.33%
Chart: $VXEEM emerging markets volatility βοΈ t + T
Equity volatility βοΈ
$VXEEM 25.96 +37.94%
$RVX 25.79 +15.7%
$VIX 18.24 +15.22%
$VXN 20.81 +3.33%
Chart: $VXEEM emerging markets volatility βοΈ t + T
4a/14
πππ
Commensurate with βοΈ equity vol, $EEM is now π» trade (t) -6.44% and trend (T) -4.41%
πππ
Commensurate with βοΈ equity vol, $EEM is now π» trade (t) -6.44% and trend (T) -4.41%
4b/14
β οΈβ οΈβ οΈ
Small caps are on the verge of breaking down with $RVX 25.79
$IWM closed -3.63% for the month and -1.71% for the past three months.
β οΈβ οΈβ οΈ
Small caps are on the verge of breaking down with $RVX 25.79
$IWM closed -3.63% for the month and -1.71% for the past three months.
5/14
$SPX +2.27% βοΈ led global equities higher in July with Asia broadly βοΈ
$CAC +1.61% βοΈ
$COMPQ +1.16% βοΈ
$DAX +0.09% < β> π
$KOSPI -2.86% < β> π
$HSI -10.13% π»
$NIKK -5.14% π»
$SSEC -5.4% π»
$TWII -2.86% π»
Chart: π $KOSPI 3202 with a lower high has lost price momo
$SPX +2.27% βοΈ led global equities higher in July with Asia broadly βοΈ
$CAC +1.61% βοΈ
$COMPQ +1.16% βοΈ
$DAX +0.09% < β> π
$KOSPI -2.86% < β> π
$HSI -10.13% π»
$NIKK -5.14% π»
$SSEC -5.4% π»
$TWII -2.86% π»
Chart: π $KOSPI 3202 with a lower high has lost price momo
6/14
Top performing US equity sectors for July
$XLV +4.92%
$XLRE +4.62%
$XLU +4.33%
$XLK +3.89%
Worst sectors
$XLE -8.32% even with πͺπ» $CVX $XOM earnings
$XLF -0.46%
$XLI +0.94%
Chart: π XLE with trend at 48.89 β οΈ
Top performing US equity sectors for July
$XLV +4.92%
$XLRE +4.62%
$XLU +4.33%
$XLK +3.89%
Worst sectors
$XLE -8.32% even with πͺπ» $CVX $XOM earnings
$XLF -0.46%
$XLI +0.94%
Chart: π XLE with trend at 48.89 β οΈ
7/14
Country ETFs with strength in Northern Europe (non-oil producing)
$ENFL +5.28%
$EWD +4.33%
$EDEN +3.72%
$EWN +3.12%
Weakness is Asia
$FXI -12.5%
$EWZ -7.75%
$THD -6.22%
Chart: $EDEN +8.15% over T duration
Country ETFs with strength in Northern Europe (non-oil producing)
$ENFL +5.28%
$EWD +4.33%
$EDEN +3.72%
$EWN +3.12%
Weakness is Asia
$FXI -12.5%
$EWZ -7.75%
$THD -6.22%
Chart: $EDEN +8.15% over T duration
8/14
Metals βοΈ π
$COPPER 4.43% βοΈ
$GOLD +2.57% βοΈ with $GVZ 15.09 -5.51%
$PLAT -2.28% π»
$SILVER -2.44% π with $VXSLV 29.84 +1.26%
Chart: Unlike GOLD, SILVER is below T support of 25.87 β οΈ
Metals βοΈ π
$COPPER 4.43% βοΈ
$GOLD +2.57% βοΈ with $GVZ 15.09 -5.51%
$PLAT -2.28% π»
$SILVER -2.44% π with $VXSLV 29.84 +1.26%
Chart: Unlike GOLD, SILVER is below T support of 25.87 β οΈ
9/14
Despite OPEX+ shenanigans, hydrocarbons remain βοΈ
$WTIC +0.65%
$BRENT +1.6%
$GASO +4.02%
$NATGAS +8.29%
Chart: Natty Gas +33.79% over T duration with notable decline in volume β οΈ
Despite OPEX+ shenanigans, hydrocarbons remain βοΈ
$WTIC +0.65%
$BRENT +1.6%
$GASO +4.02%
$NATGAS +8.29%
Chart: Natty Gas +33.79% over T duration with notable decline in volume β οΈ
10/14
The most easily replaceable of commodities, grains βοΈ
$CORN -7.35% π»
$SOYB -3.56% π»
$WHEAT +3.57% π»
$SUGAR +0.11% βοΈ
Chart: $WHEAT 703.75 βlooksβ good, but < T level of 735 β οΈ
The most easily replaceable of commodities, grains βοΈ
$CORN -7.35% π»
$SOYB -3.56% π»
$WHEAT +3.57% π»
$SUGAR +0.11% βοΈ
Chart: $WHEAT 703.75 βlooksβ good, but < T level of 735 β οΈ
11/14
Strong hydrocarbons, mixed metals, and mixed ags pushed the $CRB +2.2% to another cycle high
Strong hydrocarbons, mixed metals, and mixed ags pushed the $CRB +2.2% to another cycle high
12/14
Fiat currencies spent the month chopping around with the π¨π emerging as the winner and π¦πΊ the loser
$FXF +2.08% βοΈ
$FXY +1.25%
$FXB +0.42%
$FXE -0.03%
$UUP -0.24%
$FXC -0.66%
$FXA -2.12% π»
Fiat currencies spent the month chopping around with the π¨π emerging as the winner and π¦πΊ the loser
$FXF +2.08% βοΈ
$FXY +1.25%
$FXB +0.42%
$FXE -0.03%
$UUP -0.24%
$FXC -0.66%
$FXA -2.12% π»
13/14
In summary:
New βοΈ in bonds
Equity vol βοΈ
EM markets βοΈ π»
Small caps βοΈ
Large cap US βοΈ
#Quad4 US sectors βοΈ
$GOLD βοΈ
$FXF + $FXY βοΈ (safe havens)
$CRB βοΈ
with $WTIC βοΈ and $COPPER βοΈ but $CORN βοΈ
In summary:
New βοΈ in bonds
Equity vol βοΈ
EM markets βοΈ π»
Small caps βοΈ
Large cap US βοΈ
#Quad4 US sectors βοΈ
$GOLD βοΈ
$FXF + $FXY βοΈ (safe havens)
$CRB βοΈ
with $WTIC βοΈ and $COPPER βοΈ but $CORN βοΈ
14/14
With $EEM and $IWM π» and bonds βοΈ, all π on π§ of weakness $SPX & $COMPQ
Getting longer $GOLD and $TLT; shorting $EEM and cutting $RTY exposure.
π $XLE like a π¦ with π© price action despite π’βοΈ
π° π° Have a π° August!
With $EEM and $IWM π» and bonds βοΈ, all π on π§ of weakness $SPX & $COMPQ
Getting longer $GOLD and $TLT; shorting $EEM and cutting $RTY exposure.
π $XLE like a π¦ with π© price action despite π’βοΈ
π° π° Have a π° August!
β’ β’ β’
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