Thread by @Alonso_GD

I've seen a few English sources describing Peru's latest political crisis as a reshuffling between "moderates" and "radicals" within Castillo's party. I disagree. I think this is a much more concerning crisis dealing with fundamental rights/principles. Let me explain why🧵

For some time now, we've been wondering who will have a bigger influence in a Castillo government: Verónika Mendoza's progressive Nuevo Peru Movement (NP), who joined Castillo's Peru Libre (PL) coallition for the second round, or Vladimir Cerrón, the ideological leader of PL

Cerrón's rise is more than just a "radical politician". He is a mysoginist and homophobe, he is credibly accused of corruption and has constantly insisted, alongside his close associates, that PL has no intention to relinquish power

https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1421083943940542467?s=20

The main sign of progressive influence came from the prominence of NP's chief economic advisor, Pedro Francke, serving as Castillo's main interlocutor for int'l press and markets reuters.com/article/peru-e…

Cerrón, however, has consistently complained that "guests" in the coallition did not know "their place" within PL. There was a lot of uncertainty as to who would Castillo listen to: Cerrón or NP

https://twitter.com/VLADIMIR_CERRON/status/1403394565780951045

Eventually, speculation arose that Castillo would appoint Roger Najar as his Prime Minister (i.e. his Chief of Staff). Najar admits to having sex with (i.e. statutorily raping) a 14 year old girl, while he was 30, and then refusing to recognize the child or pay sufficient alimony

Progressive forces started a campaign to prevent this with the hashtag "Cabinet without Aggressors". According to speculation, there was considerable pressure from NP behind the scenes to keep Najar away from the PM position

https://twitter.com/MarisaGlave/status/1420522739484475396

But Najar is a close ally to Cerrón, who again complained publically of a progressive "conspiracy" to appoint the PM. "The President, the Party and the Caucus will issue a solid response", he warned.

https://twitter.com/VLADIMIR_CERRON/status/1420786330993373187

The "response" came in the shape of current PM Guido Bellido. That Bellido is a controversial pick is an understatement. In 2019 he said "the Revolution needs no [male] hairdressers", meaning gay people. "Work will make them men. The new man cannot be a fa**ot"

His facebook account is filled with endless homophobic, transphobic and misogynistic statements.

Also, a video quickly circulated where Bellido seemed to excuse the Shining Path's taking up of arms and engagement in terrorism during the 80s and 90s, seemingly unable to categorically condemn their violence. An extremely hot-button issue in Peru facebook.com/watch/?extid=C…

Beyond showing Cerrón's power, the plan might be to get Congress to deny a vote of confidence to Bellido. Under Peruvian law, if the President loses two votes of confidence, they are constitutionally allowed to dissolve Congress

https://twitter.com/BaneyMike/status/1420869781373263876?s=20

During the campaign trail, Cerron's congresspeople argued their intention was to dissolve Congress and replace it with a Constituent Assembly chosen through "sectors", thus giving unions (where Castillo is popular) more weight than political parties and individual candidates.

Ultimately, NP's Francke refused to join Bellido's cabinet, but surprisingly the PL-NP alliance has continued intact, with NP receiving 2 cabinet positions.

So, while Francke's exit will unsettle markets, there is little evidence that this is a disagreement over how radical the economic plan will be. Clearly, Castillo did not have a Cerronista replacement for Francke ready to go - the post is still (worryingly) vacant

This was, instead, a power play by the anti-LGBT, anti-feminist, authoritarian wing of the coallition (PL) to sideline the progressive, LGBT-ally, democratic one (NP)

The troubling development therefore, is not that radicals have gained momentum over moderates. Its that progressives have acquiesced to an anti-rights autocratic show of force. The only existing counterweight to Cerrón has fizzled out not 2 days into Castillo's tenure.

I had managed to keep some modicum of hope that Castillo would have the vision not to yield to Cerrón and seize a unique opportunity to reshape Peru's racist/unfair social structures while respecting human rights and democratic values. That hope is now sadly fully gone