While the “atmosphere is positive” in the cabinet-formation process, the reality is that the obstacles remain the same in negotiations today. That said, one important factor will weigh heavily on Aoun’s attitude and possible flexibility.
Aoun’s and Bassil’s strategy in the past year, which is aimed at securing Bassil’s presidency, is built on three pillars: First, affirming in the minds of people that the Aounists are outside the pre-2005 political class, and even pose a threat to it.
Second, that Aoun and Bassil seek to fight the corruption of the political class, but have been blocked (hence the demand for the justice ministry). Third, that Aoun and Bassil remain popular among Christians, which elections will show (hence the interior ministry demand).
At the same time, to bring these 3 pillars together, both men need a government. Without one, Aoun’s term will end in ignominy and the Bassil-presidency strategy will fail, as Lebanon will sink deeper into the abyss, impacting the Aounists, and everyone else, negatively.
So Aoun and Bassil may well be more flexible on compromises than many people believe. They don’t want Mikati to fail, since his failure will ultimately be theirs. Add one additional advantage: If Mikati does well, that could represent another nail in Hariri’s political coffin.
Bassil’s succession is central in the Aounists’ mind. Nothing else matters. Mikati’s skill has been to show Bassil that Mikati is not here to undermine his presidential ambitions, but that those ambitions actually require Mikati to succeed. No cabinet, no Bassil presidency.
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