Thread by @WajSKhan

As news of the Taliban’s first military takeover of a provincial capital after 20 years of fighting is breaking, here’s a thread [I hope to evolve] about what Washington is thinking about Afghanistan.

There are two schools in Washington for Afghanistan: the first thinks that the Taliban are doing whatever they’re doing to gain leverage in the peace process; that if Ashraf Ghani relents, then the talks will lead to a some kind of power sharing agreement.

This school believes that the Taliban are more savvy than they seem; that they will not gun for a total military takeover & risk pariah status; that current military gains are actually brinksmanship & that Ghani must relent. This school thinks that, ultimately, talking will work.

A second school is emerging; this school is more skeptical, more conservative; it thinks that the Taliban are worse than they were before; that they’re hell bent on a military victory, which will be converted into a political victory. This school thinks the peace talks are dead.

This school also thinks that hitting the Taliban with air strikes, aiding Afghan forces, especially the Air Force, will help stop the Taliban advance; it also thinks that pressuring, even sanctioning Taliban abettors will work. This school is adopting an anti-Biden theme.

Both schools are playing with fire; the first one is betting on the talks to restart. But why would the talks restart when the Taliban are winning? Only if Ghani offers them something big to stop the fighting. Like Zalmay Khalilzad has said: the Taliban want the “lion’s share.”

The other side is betting on their criticism, the voices of Afghan civil society, international media and diplomacy etc to develop enough momentum to a) increase skepticism against the Taliban & b) convert that skepticism into isolation or sanctions against them & their backers.

But short of critiquing the Taliban or their “backers” (using that term broadly) in Islamabad or Tehran or Moscow or Beijing (more on them soon); or the pro-talk Biden/Blinken/Khalilzad gang, this school doesn’t have any solutions except more fighting or more pressure /sanctions.