Thread by @andrewflood

Another yikes day for the Precarious Exit with todays 1837 cases 167% of last Sundays, solidifying a sensed that the opening of indoor hospitality has gone wrong. Over 10,000 cases a week today with this weeks 10,619 115% of last week /1

Average rate of case increase over last 3 days is 136%. Plugging that rate along with current hospital & ICU projects by end Sept between NPHET Central 2 & Pessimistic Scenarios;
435k cases
8.2k hospital
965 ICU
So lets hope we fall away from that rate of increase in next days/2

208 Hospital is 128% last Sunday
172 new hospital cases this week is 93% previous
172 admissions is 1.9% of 9267 cases to Aug2
31 ICU is 119% last Sunday
19 ICU admissions this week is same as previous
19 ICU admissions is 12% of 155 hospitalisation to Aug 5th
/3

There appear to have been 5 deaths in ICU the last week. In the pandemic up to May only 10% of deaths took place in ICU. That ratio must have changed but that & the level of deaths in the north suggests we should expect this and/or next Weds weekly deaths update to be higher /4

Vaccination has slowed as cases rise, only 4 additional dose 1s reported for each of the 1837 new infections - lowest ratio in a long time. About 500k over 16s left to get dose 1
1st: 3,416,376 (+7,742) 68.6% (16+ 87.4%)
Full: 2,901,173 (+9,166) 58.3% (16+ 74.2%) /5

We could do with an updated NPHET set of scenarios that take what I think is a better vaccine uptake than hoped for into account as that will reduce severe outcomes. In the Pessimistic one the majority of cases were expected in under 18s but most deaths in over 65s /6

An updated NPHET scenarios exist - it was mentioned at the end of HSE press conference that it showed "much flatter curves until the end of August at over 3k cases a day when they may decline". That decline is presumably based on actual vax & would improve scenarios a lot. /7

Latest all Ireland graph with the renewed rise of cases now clearly visible. All island vaccination as of today
1st 4648826 (+8,998) 67.7%
3985436 (+12,549) 58%

https://twitter.com/auto_plot/status/1424386392675729412?s=20

That mention of more recent models showing a peak at the end of this month at the HSE press conference if true would reduce cumulative numbers a lot, to c25% if the end Sep figure. But it was such a casual mention, we really need the details

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1424392136146014222