Todays 1522 #Covid19Ireland cases are 113% of last Mondays & added here as a green dot on the NPHET Precarious Exist scenarios. Taking cases from 10 days after indoors opened those 4 days are 130% of same days last week /1
217 hospital is 123% last Mon
176 new hospital cases this week are 99% last weeks
176 NHC are 1.9% of 9162 cases to Aug 3
34 ICU is 126% last Mon
20 ICU admissions this week is 133% of ICU admissions last week
20 ICU admissions is 13% of 135 new hospital cases to August 6th
/2
Plugging in case increase at 130% previous week and current hospitalisation & ICU rate accumulates by end Sept
300k cases
5663 hospital
709 ICU
which lies between NPHET Central 1 & 2 scenario but closer to 2
/3
I’ve used end of Sept as the cutoff above as that was the June 25th scenario cutoffs presented by NPHET. But vaccination has been more extensive than hoped for & at Thursday HSE presser it was suggested the updated models reach a peak at the end of August /4
Running the cumulative calculation at the same rates to the 1st week of September looks *very* different;
142k cases
2626 hospital
314 ICU
We really need to see those updated models and be given an idea of the assumptions around them as clearly they are guiding policy /5
4 million people are fully vaccinated on the island, for the south with the improvement on yesterday its
1st: 3,425,121 (+8,745) 68.8% (16+ 87.6%)
Full: 2,913,090 (+11,917) 58.5% (16+74.5%)
which leaves 1.55 million unvaccinated, about 500k of whom are over 16. /6
Tonight NPHET said 17% of cases are now in fully vaccinated people, very crudely as 56% are fully vaccinated thats less than 1/3 of what would be expected if vaccines didn’t protect against infection - so vaccines are massively reducing infection /7
But there is a lot of uncertainty, and not just in Ireland. Indeed a problem with being among the 1st to reach this level of vaccination is there is no certainty yet about how it will reduce infection to a manageable level & Delta makes consequences of being premature huge /8
Current north / south cases per 100k comparison

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More from @andrewflood

11 Aug
There a seriously misleading error on the HSE advice page about vaccinating 12-15 years olds where is says the hospital risk of Covid is 1 in 100,000. In fact 1% of those cases under 14 to December were hospitalised, 63 in 5-14 are group, 60 in 0 to 4.
This is the error & the stats to December for actual hospitalisations by age here - it was close to 1% at that point
www2.hse.ie/screening-and-… ImageImage
This stat appears in the CMO letter to the Minister of 26th July. It looks like NIAC may have just been talking of severe events in the 2 week period highlighted and not the entire pandemic? Image
Read 5 tweets
10 Aug
5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
/1 Image
Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
346660cases
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2 ImageImage
Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3
Read 13 tweets
8 Aug
Another yikes day for the Precarious Exit with todays 1837 cases 167% of last Sundays, solidifying a sensed that the opening of indoor hospitality has gone wrong. Over 10,000 cases a week today with this weeks 10,619 115% of last week /1 Image
Average rate of case increase over last 3 days is 136%. Plugging that rate along with current hospital & ICU projects by end Sept between NPHET Central 2 & Pessimistic Scenarios;
435k cases
8.2k hospital
965 ICU
So lets hope we fall away from that rate of increase in next days/2 ImageImage
208 Hospital is 128% last Sunday
172 new hospital cases this week is 93% previous
172 admissions is 1.9% of 9267 cases to Aug2
31 ICU is 119% last Sunday
19 ICU admissions this week is same as previous
19 ICU admissions is 12% of 155 hospitalisation to Aug 5th
/3 Image
Read 9 tweets
27 Jul
As I'd hoped todays 1120 cases which are 101% of last Tuesday's get us back inside the NPHET pessimistic & C2 plots. A once off football / post leaving cert surge rather than a trend made things looks very grim, now cases are elevated but which track we are on is still open /1
The rise on the left of hospitalisations & ICU shows we are paying a price for that surge - and one which will continue unless & until cases start to decrease or full adult vaccination is reached
142 hospital, 160% last Tuesday
27 ICU, 129% “
/2
Currently 2% of cases are being hospitalised 6 days later & 15% of hospital cases are in ICU 3 days later/ Completing adult vaccination is all that is likely to cut those percentages substantially as those are near the rates for young unvaccinated /3
Read 10 tweets
27 Jul
A 6% gender gap in the HPSC 14 day data points to a similar effect in Ireland - presumably men going to the mate with the biggest screens house to watch the matches. Adds hope that the recent slowing of the rate of case rise is real ft.com/content/cb86d9…
I’m also hopeful that we are seeing a hint of a population immunity threshold being reached as behaviors changed post Euros - in England opening nightclubs may well flip that back again with a case rise towards the end of this week but if anything that would confirm this
With a similar level of vaccination as the UK if lower level of survival immunity (as we have about 1/2 the deaths per 100k) that *might* make the recent opening sustainable within a couple of weeks more vaccination
Read 5 tweets
26 Jul
Todays 1345 cases added to the Precarious Exit plot - they are 126% last Monday with the 8879 cases this weeks at 124% of the previous week. At that rate we might get back inside NPHETs pessimistic plot before impact of opening indoors hits /1 Image
Cautious Reopening plot has not left the top of the screen as I feared last Monday for cases but hospitalisation are now above expected level for 1st time and ICU getting close to that
141 hospital is 140% last Monday
25 ICU is 125% last Monday
/2 Image
The north saw a large drop in cases today but as the cost of the rise of cases last week a big weekend increase in hospital & ICU admissions. This is starting to overwhelm other healthcare as a result /3
Read 7 tweets

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