If you, like me, are tired of shallow and short-term reporting on China, and need to zoom out, I'd like to tell you a story. It's about an ancient, hidden force influencing its policies today, from Xinjiang to the Pacific, from Tibet to Beijing.
This is the map of China's ethnicities. The main ones are:
Han in the east (brown)
Mongolian in the north (dark pink)
Turkic in the west (light pink)
Tibetan in the south-west (orange)
Thai in the south (yellow)
But most of the people are in the east! In the Han area.
This is so stark that the line that divides the lightly and densely populated areas has a name: it's the Hu line
The area east of the Hu Line represents 43% of the land but hosts 94% of the population.
And the Han represent more than 95% of the population in those populated areas. That's why, overall, the Han account for 94% of the Chinese population!
But why is the area in the east so populated compared to the rest?
Because it's the flattest area, which means it's easy to farm and trade.
It's also the area that has the most rain. The white line here is the line that receives 15 inches of water a year. It divides the west, super dry, and the east, which receives much more than 15 inches
Of all the east, the most fertile area is that flat land to the northeast. It's called the North China Plain, and it receives not one but two rivers born in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.
Unsurprisingly, it's the most fertile area in China.
This is where the Han come from.
More flatlands, rain, and rivers means more people and trade, which means they can conquer the rest of the areas around it over 3000 years.
But why does the rain fall where it falls?
Because winds at that latitude blow from the east, so they take with them all the water from the Pacific. The mountains stop the clouds, sucks all the water, and east of it there's a rain shadow effect and no rain.
So the mountains in the west and the latitude cause the rivers and the rain. But why are there mountains in the west in the first place? Because the Indian plate hits the Eurasian plate
The hit creates the Himalayas closest to India and the Tibetan plateau behind it.
Ok so now we understand why the mountains, but why do they stop so suddenly and the east is so flat?

Because of the Pacific plate! It's going below the Eurasian plate and all the area it has reached is flat on the surface!
How far in does the Pacific plate go? All the way to the... Hu Line!

(This limit is called the North-South Gravity Lineament, and separates from the Hu Line in the south).
So the Indian, Eurasian, and Pacific plate create China's mountains in the west & flatlands in the east
The latitude brings winds, which bring water
The relationship of both create rivers, rain, and flatlands
Those create fertile lands
The most fertile of which was the Han's
That's why the Hans were the most powerful, and why they spread.

So a better way to understand China is as the geologically-blessed Han country, defending itself by building non-Han buffers around it. For Beijing, China is the brown area, and the other colors are its defenses.
How did this drive China's history? Their current policies? Their future?

Much more in this week's article.

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More from @tomaspueyo

11 Aug
Time for a COVID FAQ
1. Delta Update
2. I'm vaxxed. Am I Safe?
3. I’m Vaxxed. Can I Go to an Indoor Event Masked?
4. When Will We Leave This Behind?
5. Can Vaccines Stop the Pandemic?
6. Vaccine Effectiveness?
7. Fractionalization?
8. Booster Shots?
9. Mix&Match?
1. What’s the Update on the Delta Variant and Cases Worldwide?
Raising in many countries, in some it's started to fall, but it doesn't look like cases will go all the way down there. Image
The fact that JP TH & similar countries, protected till now, can't control the virus shows how dangerous Delta is Image
Read 16 tweets
11 Aug
I humbly have so many questions about #autism, esp clustering. Do you have answers?

1. Clusters
Autism is known as a spectrum, but it sounds to me like it’s not a line, rather a space. Traits don’t linearly increase or decrease. ≠ ppl have ≠ traits.

Are there trait clusters?
2. Genetic Clustering
20%-25% of autism can be traced to >100 genes. The same gene variants should produce the same traits. We know that for a few like SynGAP-1. Why don’t we for all? Why so little correlation btw gene variants and traits?
3. Non-genetic causes
Why only ~25% of autism is traced back to genes?
Is the rest too difficult to trace back? Why?
Or is it because there are other drivers?
Epigenetics?
Why don’t we know about other drivers?
(Please no antivaxxing)
Read 7 tweets
30 Jul
Analogies have a bad rap vs. 1st principles. But both have a role to play.

When should you use Analogies vs. First Principles?

It depends on the novelty-complexity relationship.
The more you've seen a situation, the more you can predict what will happen next without understanding it. The ancients might not have known how the solar system worked, but they knew the sun was going to come up tomorrow.
So you can use analogies when you've seen something a lot and it's very replicable.

That's how a lot of the medical sciences work today, for example. We're not sure how things work, but if they work over and over again, let's keep doing them.
Read 10 tweets
29 Jul
The US economy has completed a V-shape and is now at pre-crisis levels.

This was predictable

The reason was simple: it's what happened in every other pandemic
Read 4 tweets
29 Jul
"The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." @GreatDismal

Corollary: The fastest way to accelerate the future is to distribute it.

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/distribute-t…
To distribute it, you need to spot it 1st
So how do you spot the future in the present?

Example: COVID
In early March, the future was SK and IT. They had gone through a wave before most other countries. They had taken ≠ measures with ≠ results.

Which one would you rather be?
Defining a successful strategy for COVID was as easy as: "Hey guys, looks like SK is doing it well. Let's do the same!"

Unfortunately, we did like Italy 🤷‍♂️
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28 Jul
Here's one way to understand vaccines vs. variants, why they're still good even if there are breakthroughs, and why you should protect yourself even if vaccinated:

Think of the virus like an invading army, and vaccines like your defense army. Thread 🧵
If an enemy army is about to invade, how are you better off: with, or without a defense army?

Obviously, with a defense.
Does it mean you will always win?
No.
The enemy might have lots of soldiers (high viral load), or its soldiers might be seasoned by war (aggressive variants).

The stronger it is, the more likely it is to run over your defenses, ravage you, and kill you.
Read 13 tweets

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