Thread by @tomaspueyo

Time for a COVID FAQ
1. Delta Update
2. I'm vaxxed. Am I Safe?
3. I’m Vaxxed. Can I Go to an Indoor Event Masked?
4. When Will We Leave This Behind?
5. Can Vaccines Stop the Pandemic?
6. Vaccine Effectiveness?
7. Fractionalization?
8. Booster Shots?
9. Mix&Match?

1. What’s the Update on the Delta Variant and Cases Worldwide?
Raising in many countries, in some it's started to fall, but it doesn't look like cases will go all the way down there.

The fact that JP TH & similar countries, protected till now, can't control the virus shows how dangerous Delta is

And even if in some EU countries cases are peaking, it looks like they will go up across the continent

2. Am I Safe If I’m Vaccinated? What Activities Can I Go To? Why Are There Still Cases in Very Vaccinated Countries?

The vaccine is great at stopping really bad outcomes (-90% hospitalizations and deaths), but not at stopping infections. I'm not sure yet about Long COVID

3. I’m Vaxxed. Can I Go to an Indoor Event if I Get Masked?
You're only ~50% less likely to catch it, and some will develop Long COVID. So mask up and limit dangerous situations:

DANGEROUS SITUATIONS
Surrounded by unvaxxed people
Thousands of ppl around
People come and go
Ventilation is poor
People talk
People sing
People are cavalier about properly wearing masks
You’re older
There’s a high prevalence in the area.

4. When Will We Leave This Behind?
My scenario bet: we keep vaccinating ppl, others get natural immunity, we keep masking up & avoiding the worst type of superspreader events, most other things open, & society keeps chugging along for months.

Until vaccines solve the problem.

5. Can Vaccines Stop the Pandemic?
Yes.
Within 8m, 0%➡️30% of the world pop vaccinated
If mutations are slow & vaccinations fast, we might be able to nip new variants in the bud, and either eliminate COVID or limit it to pockets of unvaccinated.

The wild card: reservoirs

6. Do We Know More about Vaccine Effectiveness?
A couple of updates:
- Confirmed ~50-60% reduction in symptomatic infections & infections
- Moderna > Pfizer vs. Delta (for infection)
- Novavax great
medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-f…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

7. Should Vaccines Be Fractioned?
Some lad tests—and one in real life—suggest 1/2 a dose is nearly as good as a full dose. So we probably should fraction vaccines. Definitely in the emerging countries that can’t get enough of them
nature.com/articles/s4159…

8. Should I Get a Booster Shot?
Very hard to know. Waning likely due to both time & new variants (prob more from new variants, so that wouldn't be solved w/ +boosters).

If no cost of booster (eg to other countries), I'd do it, ideally w/ updated vaccines or mix&match

9. Should I Mix-and-Match?
The WHO says no, but I think it's another failure. The details are illuminating: they don't say mix-and-match is bad for health. They say it's not for individuals to decide: logistics make it a gov decision (?!)
reuters.com/business/healt…

Evidence says:
It has worked in the past
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26691569/

It gives more protective antibodies
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

It's not risky
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Lab tests show it's a bit better
nature.com/articles/d4158…

Many countries do it
nytimes.com/2021/06/24/wor…

I'd do it

I cover this in today's article

More tomorrow:
10. Vaccine Side Effects?
11. Should Some At-risk Groups Not Get Vaccinated?
12. Vaccines Mandates?
13. What about those Immunocompromised?
14. What Happened in India?
15.

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/covid-faq-su…

15. Should We Attempt Complete Elimination of COVID?
16. I Want to Travel to EU/US. Will I get Locked Down?
17. Does Ivermectin work?
18. Why Wear Masks if we will get vaccinated / catch it anyways?

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