Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Belarus: As the democratic opposition in exile celebrates the democratic awakening, Lukashenko launched a mixture of threats and disinformation to the public at home and to his nemeses abroad. Here are 14 most important takeaways: ⤵️

1) The drafting of the constitution is in progress. It will be presented to the public and subsequently approved in a referendum. Lukashenko imagines this whole process as "demicratic." With the opposition oppressed, detained, exiled or scared to death, it is impossible to⤵️

hold a democratic referendum. 2) He assured that he would soon end his political career. It is probably related to the adoption of the new constitution. But whether that means that Lukashenko or his loyal circle will not rule the country in his name, it is highly unlikely. ⤵️

3) Lukashenko tried to portray peaceful Belarusian protesters a year ago as violent. The evidence indicates that the authorities were the violent ones (even employing the army). But what triggered it all was the falsification of the elections by the regime. The opposition⤵️

and Western partners have proofs. 4) Lukashenko has openly admitted that Russian military forces will immediately deploy to Belarus to avoid a "world war". This would also imply a military base. 5) On Western sanctions, Lukashenko stressed that they are counterproductive⤵️

because, in response, Minsk will redirect exports to Russian ports and the Chinese and Indian markets. 6) Lukashenko sent the signal that he would be ready to resume the dialogue only if on equal terms and without preconditions. 7) He used the gaslighting narrative to⤵️

accuse the current administration of rigging the presidential election against Trump. Using this conspiracy is not accidental. Lukashenko probably believes that this will persuade Republicans to oppose new sanctions against his regime. 8) He has also echoed the possible⤵️

escalation of the migration crisis, as Lukashenko specified that he can easily retaliate. He did not take any responsibility for the illegal crossings. Instead, he posed as a protector of irregular migrants who entered Lithuanian territory from Belarus. After which, he⤵️

admitted that the border police can shoot those who enter Belarus illegally, after the warning shot. 9) His intention to inflict harm specifically on Lithuania is very clear. He reasoned it with Lithuania's support for the opposition in exile, led by Tikhanovskaya.⤵️

10) Lukashenko invited international investigators who are looking at Ryanair's forced flight. But he doesn't realize that confidence in the Minsk evidence is close to zero. 11) The repressive actions against the opposition, the media, the peaceful protesters are in⤵️

his opinion the legal answer to their alleged attempt to destroy sovereignty and public order, in which he assures that he personally invested a lot. Becoming a regime like North Korea doesn't seem like a bad thing to him as long as the old regime remains in power.⤵️

12) Without any plausible evidence, Ukraine has been accused of facilitating the training of armed persons and of attempting to smuggle weapons into Belarus in the service of Western interests. At the same time, Lukashenko rejected the possibility of introducing sanctions⤵️

against the southern neighbor. But he announced that 150,000 Ukrainian citizens who fled to Belarus when the war broke out in Donbas will receive Belarusian citizenship. Lukashenko did not dare to say that the Ukrainian refugees came to Belarus due to Russian aggression.⤵️

13) Lukashenko stressed that neither he nor Russia want the absorption of Belarus by the big brother. Goal is promoting integration and creating a level playing field in two countries as independent and sovereign. He acknowledged that Putin offered in 2020 his help in the form⤵️

of armed troops, but Lukashenko refused because his reserve of people was sufficient. He openly admitted that the cooperation with Russia is used to weather the sanctions. 14) Lukashenko has described Russia's military intervention as a follow-up action if he dies and⤵️

power is transferred to the Security Council. He suggested that the West rightly fears the Lukashenko-Putin tandem. END.