#Moldova: Putin's administration envoy Dmitry Kozak, who also oversees the Moldavian file (in particular, the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict) prepares for a trip to Chisinau. Two things it is important to keep in mind. First, President Sandu did not visit Moscow, ⤵️
although she did travel to various European capitals, including the EU. Second, the government program designed by Gavrilita's cabinet alludes to Moldova pursuing pragmatic and predictable relations with Russia. At the same time, the withdrawal of Russian arms & military forces⤵️
is also indicated as a priority in the dialogue with Moscow. It is unusual for a senior Russian official to come to Moldova, even before an official call occurred between new MFA Nicu Popescu (@nicupopescu) and Russian MFA Sergey Lavrov. Apparently, Kozak comes to Chisinau⤵️
to send signals and measure the temperature himself, avoiding the misinterpretations of Russian representatives, such as the Socialist Party & the ex-president/current deputy Igor Dodon. In a previous article, he suggested a set of recommendations on how to deal with Russia👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

9 Aug
#Belarus: As the democratic opposition in exile celebrates the democratic awakening, Lukashenko launched a mixture of threats and disinformation to the public at home and to his nemeses abroad. Here are 14 most important takeaways: ⤵️
1) The drafting of the constitution is in progress. It will be presented to the public and subsequently approved in a referendum. Lukashenko imagines this whole process as "demicratic." With the opposition oppressed, detained, exiled or scared to death, it is impossible to⤵️
hold a democratic referendum. 2) He assured that he would soon end his political career. It is probably related to the adoption of the new constitution. But whether that means that Lukashenko or his loyal circle will not rule the country in his name, it is highly unlikely. ⤵️
Read 16 tweets
8 Aug
#Belarus: The exponent of the Minsk local administration Vladymyr Kukharev has instructed supermarkets to replace food products made in Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine from "central shelves". He even threatened sanctions if supermarkets did not comply. This action is considered⤵️
as a necessary response to the EU economic sanctions. Similar discriminatory measures are recommended throughout the country. If enacted, these measures could become counter-sanctions against the EU. Despite the fact that Ukraine did not join the EU economic sanctions, the⤵️
Lukashenko regime treats its neighbor to the south as hostile. In this article, I predicted that it only matters if long before Lukashenko applies the Russian-style countermeasures against EU food producers. 👇
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
#NordStream2: The US-Germany agreement was signed. Here is my take on it: 1) The agreement is a compilation of aspects ranging from insecurities related to Russia to the general climate crisis and energy modernization of Ukraine. 2) From the beginning, it is obvious that both⤵️
the US and Germany want to reassure Ukraine by adding all the security concerns regarding Russia (Russian aggression, evil influence, Minsk Agreements, Normandy format). 3) However, the conventional security problems related to Russia seem slightly disconnected from the energy⤵️
aspects that remain in the agreement. 4) The disconnect is felt with the paragraph on joint efforts between the US and Germany to combat climate change. It separates the paragraph on Russia and the conventional insecurities and energy threats related to Russia.⤵️
Read 15 tweets
21 Jul
#NordStream2: After all, the US and Germany were expected to find a common language. The agreement between the two that is about to be published offers some ideas on how to make almost everyone happy, but not Ukraine. Here are some thoughts that on this issue: ⤵️
1) The US and Germany have their own strategic interests that they don't want to give up. Although Ukraine is not abandoned, its interests are not replacing the national interests of the US and Germany. That is the crude geopolitical reality that we have to take into account.⤵️
2) The agreement between the US & Germany speaks of billions of investments in the green economy, aimed at reducing Ukraine's largely inefficient energy sector. More efficiency would mean less dependence on the energy field. That makes sense, but the problem is not pure energy⤵️
Read 8 tweets
21 Jul
#Azerbaijan: President Aliyev visited Russia, where he thanked Putin for two important issues. First, he highlighted Putin's personal involvement that led to the stabilization of the situation in the Karabakh region. Second, Aliyev welcomed the 200k supply of Sputnik V⤵️
However, the Azerbaijani leader slipped a few words about pending vaccine deliveries. Aliyev has reiterated that amid the queue for Sputnik V requests, Russia should keep Azerbaijan at the forefront, given the friendly relations. Aliyev interesting comments about the tens of⤵️
thousands of Azerbaijani students studying in Russia or in Russian universities in Azerbaijan. It’s important to recall that before this visit to Moscow, Aliyev met with the European Council Charles Michel in Baku. Aliyev did not thank the EU for anything particular. Instead,⤵️
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul
#Georgia: No one has yet taken any political responsibility for the violence unleashed by the radicals on July 5. Here I sum up some thoughts: 1) PM Garibashvili stated at the Batumi conference that Georgia is fully implementing the Association Agreement with the EU.⤵️
2) Furthermore, he said that EU-Georgia relations are at an all-time high. Neither statement is accurate/correct. First of all, respect for human rights is enshrined in the Agreement with the EU.⤵️
The lack of prevention of violence against journalists and human rights activities show that the ruling party in Georgia cannot and does not really want to comply with the Association Agreement. 3) And secondly, the EU had to intervene diplomatically to resolve internal⤵️
Read 8 tweets

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