Quick update on my thoughts on the third largest #BTC whale wallet. The lack of activity further suggests the recent selling is more likely to do with breaking even or realizing small gains on blocks of #BTC acquired in the upper 30s to low 40s.
This 🐳 lightly accumulated 753 #BTC starting at 50k on May 15th, at the start of the huge pullback. Additional purchases were made at 44.7k, 44.1k, with large buys going all the way down to 29.6k.
As #BTC continues the breakout attempt, I expect this 🐳 to sell small amounts of BTC especially if price approaches its cost basis for certain blocks at 50k.
I see this as risk management and rebalancing, not panic selling to exit. The 🐳 still holds 94.8% of its total #BTC holdings. The recent selling has only reduced #BTC holdings by 5.2%.
If we see the 🐳 sell significantly more than 10% of its total #BTC holdings, especially when BTC tests major resistance levels to the upside, then I think we need to pay more attention.
Light selling is not a major warning in my opinion. This is just one entity (a large one), and we have to consider the aggregate data Onchain to get a better view of what’s happening on the network.
At the moment, the activity of this 🐳 is not showing any major sell signals. Perhaps this entity could buy back if a major buy signals flashes on the weekly for #BTC.
I will continue to monitor this address and keep everyone posted along with any Onchain signals.
If you enjoy my analysis, make sure to follow me for more updates on #BTC.

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More from @DanielJoe916

12 Aug
Here is PART 2 of my #BTC Price Target Series. This is my #BULL CASE price target for this #bullmarket. My targets are time based and condition based, while blending multiple forms of analysis. All opinions are my own, I am not factoring in other people’s price targets.

Thread
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. With that said, let’s jump in.
In order for #BTC to enter my #BULL CASE, we need to avoid seeing large selling pressure from long term holders, large miners, and entities holding illiquid supply especially if price is testing 100k. Low signs of selling pressure form these entities at 100k and ideal technical..
Read 14 tweets
11 Aug
As promised, here is PART 1 of my }#BTC price target thread. This thread is for my BASE CASE price target for #BTC on this #bull market. It is a time based, condition based target, which blends multiple forms of analysis. Think of it as a moving target.

Thread:
👇👇👇
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am keeping my proprietary methods private, as I have spent years researching and refining my analysis. Thank you for understanding. With that said, let’s jump in.
I use a variety of technical indicators and have my own proprietary methods to chart out highly confluent technical targets to the upside. I also apply sentiment indicators and onchain to help identify signals of euphoria and incoming selling pressure.
Read 12 tweets
10 Aug
Here’s 3 charts showing near term relative performance of #BTC to the SPX, Gold, and the Dollar. #BTC is showing signs of strength when comparing recent performance.

Thread
👇👇👇
During the multi month #BTC consolidation, the SPX continue higher while #BTC underperformed. There was a large divergence forming between the SPX and #BTC. BTC staged an impressive breakout and has been significantly outperforming the SPX. Image
#BTC and gold’s recent price action show strong inverse correlation. It’s very interesting to see Gold drop significantly on a weekend, and #BTC push significantly higher on the same day. Image
Read 8 tweets
5 Jul
Weekly update #BTC
Long term technicals and Onchain remain bullish. The next 3 to 5 weeks will be critical in determining direction for BTC. It is very important for BTC to close back above the 21 week for bullish continuation and to avoid a bearish crossover on my 21/40 rule👇 Image
This weeks price action formed the Higher Low at 32.7k, with less volume, a positive signal indicating further supply exhaustion.

Near term we need to see #BTC push above and stay above 35.5k and 36.6k to help form the next higher high. Image
It appears #BTC is finding near term resistance at the 200 MA on the 4 hour chart. The 200 MA has been slowly flattening, signaling consolidation has been progressing and a potential set up for an attempt to push higher. (Chart from yesterday’s initial test) Image
Read 10 tweets
1 Jul
1/ Here is a more detailed breakdown of the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. #BTC has been giving early bullish signals on Supply/Demand, Buying Test Requirements and Effort/Result principles.

@100trillionUSD
@APompliano
Time for a thread
👇👇👇
2/ Here is the current chart of #BTC with each Phase marked. Current price action suggests #BTC just formed the Spring and Test in Phase C and is attempting to forming a higher high and higher low for validation. Image
3/ Test #2 consists of PS, SC, AR, and ST. Volume is expected to decline throughout the #trading range, a signal of less supply available, thereby weakening selling pressure. Also notice the near term downtrend being broken. Image
Read 19 tweets

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