Hereโs 3 charts showing near term relative performance of #BTC to the SPX, Gold, and the Dollar. #BTC is showing signs of strength when comparing recent performance.
Thread
๐๐๐
During the multi month #BTC consolidation, the SPX continue higher while #BTC underperformed. There was a large divergence forming between the SPX and #BTC. BTC staged an impressive breakout and has been significantly outperforming the SPX.
#BTC and goldโs recent price action show strong inverse correlation. Itโs very interesting to see Gold drop significantly on a weekend, and #BTC push significantly higher on the same day.
#BTC and the dollar have both been rising recently. Usually there is an inverse correlation where the dollar falls and #BTC rises. The recent rally in #BTC while the dollar increases can be seen a sign of strength for #Bitcoin.
The near term relative performance of #BTC to the SPX, gold, and dollar, show significant strength in BTC. As long as technicals, momentum, and Onchain remain strong, this suggest #BTC could likely continue outperforming especially as #BTC is attempting a technical breakout.
Long term, I firmly believe #BTC is position to outperform the SPX, gold, and the dollar.
If you enjoy my analysis, make sure to follow me for more updates!
Here is PART 2 of my #BTC Price Target Series. This is my #BULL CASE price target for this #bullmarket. My targets are time based and condition based, while blending multiple forms of analysis. All opinions are my own, I am not factoring in other peopleโs price targets.
Thread
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. With that said, letโs jump in.
In order for #BTC to enter my #BULL CASE, we need to avoid seeing large selling pressure from long term holders, large miners, and entities holding illiquid supply especially if price is testing 100k. Low signs of selling pressure form these entities at 100k and ideal technical..
As promised, here is PART 1 of my }#BTC price target thread. This thread is for my BASE CASE price target for #BTC on this #bull market. It is a time based, condition based target, which blends multiple forms of analysis. Think of it as a moving target.
Thread:
๐๐๐
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am keeping my proprietary methods private, as I have spent years researching and refining my analysis. Thank you for understanding. With that said, letโs jump in.
I use a variety of technical indicators and have my own proprietary methods to chart out highly confluent technical targets to the upside. I also apply sentiment indicators and onchain to help identify signals of euphoria and incoming selling pressure.
Quick update on my thoughts on the third largest #BTC whale wallet. The lack of activity further suggests the recent selling is more likely to do with breaking even or realizing small gains on blocks of #BTC acquired in the upper 30s to low 40s.
This ๐ณ lightly accumulated 753 #BTC starting at 50k on May 15th, at the start of the huge pullback. Additional purchases were made at 44.7k, 44.1k, with large buys going all the way down to 29.6k.
As #BTC continues the breakout attempt, I expect this ๐ณ to sell small amounts of BTC especially if price approaches its cost basis for certain blocks at 50k.
Weekly update #BTC
Long term technicals and Onchain remain bullish. The next 3 to 5 weeks will be critical in determining direction for BTC. It is very important for BTC to close back above the 21 week for bullish continuation and to avoid a bearish crossover on my 21/40 rule๐
This weeks price action formed the Higher Low at 32.7k, with less volume, a positive signal indicating further supply exhaustion.
Near term we need to see #BTC push above and stay above 35.5k and 36.6k to help form the next higher high.
It appears #BTC is finding near term resistance at the 200 MA on the 4 hour chart. The 200 MA has been slowly flattening, signaling consolidation has been progressing and a potential set up for an attempt to push higher. (Chart from yesterdayโs initial test)
1/ Here is a more detailed breakdown of the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. #BTC has been giving early bullish signals on Supply/Demand, Buying Test Requirements and Effort/Result principles.
2/ Here is the current chart of #BTC with each Phase marked. Current price action suggests #BTC just formed the Spring and Test in Phase C and is attempting to forming a higher high and higher low for validation.
3/ Test #2 consists of PS, SC, AR, and ST. Volume is expected to decline throughout the #trading range, a signal of less supply available, thereby weakening selling pressure. Also notice the near term downtrend being broken.