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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

11 Aug, 9 tweets, 2 min read

Important news from Crescat:

Quinton Hennigh will be joining Crescat full-time.

What does it mean for the companies he is working with?

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No major difference regarding his involvement.

He will continue to provide geologic and technical expertise to the companies in Crescat’s activist investment portfolio regarding their exploration and development strategies pursuant to a shareholder agreement.

So, to clarify:

He will be doing this as Crescat's Geologic and Technical Director, and not in an official capacity as an advisor or director to the companies, with the exception of a few.

Quinton will continue to be able to share his geologic views about each of these companies, especially through Crescat’s weekly live presentations as well as in appearances on other channels.

This change allows us to continue to be focused on building a unique investment strategy in the commodities sector with a niche in funding high-quality mining exploration and development assets in the precious and base metals industry.

Quinton has been critically important in this process.

Formalizing his role with Crescat marks a milestone for our business.

This is also incredibly good news for the overall mining industry.

As a team, we are determined to provide financial support and geologic expertise to fund what we expect to become major commodity discoveries and successful mining projects in the years ahead.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to ask down below and we will make sure to address them in our live presentation this Friday at 2pm ET.

See below the news release:

crescat.net/quinton-hennig…

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More from @TaviCosta

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta

29 Jul

Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present.

Two timeframes are the most conspicuous, the '40s and the '70s.

However, today’s macro environment is significantly more extreme.

Thread

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In resemblance to today, the economy of the 1940s had high government debt and large fiscal deficits relative to GDP along with repressive Fed interest rate policies.

It was a decade that included two sharp waves of increasing inflation in the Consumer Price Index, the first during World War II and the second right after it.

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

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26 Jun

The case for precious metals & commodities today.

Call it the tale of two destructive outcomes.

Let me elaborate.

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For us, there is no doubt that the Fed is cornered into choosing between only two destructive outcomes.

On one side, it could decide to continue expanding its balance sheet to ensure subdued interest rates at the cost of setting off an inflationary problem.

Or, it could take the deflationary route by reversing its unprecedently loose monetary policy, due to overheating economic conditions, resulting in a reckoning moment for financial assets from record valuations.

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta

1 Jun

Some interesting surveys from the manufacturing report this morning.

Let’s get started with some charts first.

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Business backlog orders just made new highs again.

The spread between backlog orders vs. production is also at record levels.

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta

23 May

The three key drivers of inflation are now running at all cylinders.

Time for a thread.

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The demand side.

In April 2020, household savings peaked at $6.4 trillion.

Subsequently, $3.6 trillion of consumer spending was unleashed over the next twelve months.

That is equivalent to 7.5 times the historical average annual spending adjusted for inflation.

This is relevant because household savings came out recently, and the number shot up to $6 trillion again.

With the economy re-opening, we estimate that consumer spending could surge to as high as $4.5 trillion in the next 12 months.

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

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Some staggering data & commentaries from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report.

Let’s dive in

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The outlook for prices of received finished goods just surged to all-time highs.

If we overlay this data from April versus the Consumer Prices Index from March, it suggests that CPI will likely be running a lot hotter than the extra 70bps increase from base effects that most expect.

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa

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20 Apr

A classic early sign of a commodity cycle.

Mining industry nonfarm payrolls near historical lows.

This happened in early 1970s & 2000s.
Both marked the onset of a commodities bull market.

Labor & capital constraints are the amplifiers of bull market in resource stocks.

👇👇👇

Energy & soft commodities are obviously not mining related.

See below the nonfarm payrolls for oil & gas extraction which is also at historical lows.

To recall:

The green agenda hasn’t even started.

The decline in agricultural workers look even more severe.

To be fair, this is not a domestic problem.
We’re are experiencing similar issues worldwide.

Read 9 tweets

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